It definitely sucks to miss an event like Wellfleet/Dickens. It’s what makes this hobby so maddening, and can drive an unhealthy obsession to chase everything, similar to the gambler that can’t pull himself from the slot machine or the roulette table, because the next bet could win the jackpot. It hurts because these events are so very rare that the regret over missing it can be unbearable. When you miss something big on a low-end day, I think you have to ask yourself, “If it’s a 5-hour drive, for only a 5% probability of something memorable, would I be willing to make that drive 20 times to see it?” (This may not be a statistically valid way to look at it, but you get the idea). Unfortunately, that is probably limited comfort in this case, because the answer is likely YES, I would have made that drive *50* (or more) times to see Wellfleet/Dickens!!!
I wasn’t even out there, but it makes me regret that I can’t spend more time on the Plains, because the odds of seeing something like this drop even further when limited to 2-3 weeks of chasing each year. However, if I was out there longer, or even if I lived out there, work obligations and PTO limitations would make me more selective in the setups I chase, so who knows if I would have even chased that day. Even on chase vacations, I have passed on chases that had a low cost/benefit relationship (i.e., 6 hour drive for a low probability event, especially if it left me with an equally long ride for a better setup the next day).
I do think some of the superlatives about this tornado are excessive and driven by recency bias. Don’t get me wrong, of course it was awesome by any objective standard, and most certainly the tornado of the year. But of the decade? Of the century? Not so sure about that. Even IF it qualifies as such by some objective criteria, a *personal* best is much more subjective and remains within reach for each of us, analogous to our talk about how we judge chase seasons. For example, I watched Connor Croff’s video of Wellfleet/Dickens, and he repeatedly said he had never seen such an amazing tornado, but I kept thinking that I was equally impressed by his Durango OK video from 2024. I have yet to have such a close encounter with a tornado crossing the road in front of me, as he had with Dickens. I still hope for that experience, it’s still on my chasing bucket list. But if I am lucky enough to get it, it will be a fulfilling experience, even if before that peak moment the tornado is not as beautiful as Dickens, or hadn’t been on the ground for over half an hour. So yeah I guess objectively this tornado offered a lot of different visuals and experiences, but many of those are available to us on separate chases, even if rarely or never in the same chase. Maybe we can take some comfort in that.
I was fortunate enough to get Campo on one of my lousy 2-week chase vacations, so anything can happen!
