So, where are all...

[David Drummond]

No you weren't, I responded to a number of posts in one post. I was too lazy to quote them all. I don't recall taking any pokes at anyone's specific forecasts. Just the general theme about dewpoints on the caprock. Karen obviously got the jest I was making.

 

[Glen Romine]

Since I saw my name dragged in here somewhere, I'll paste my thoughts from 4/17 again since I'd never torture someone to go back through that forecast thread:

"I'm with Jim on the potential for this weekend - looks like a good primer event to help set things up for what has the potential to be a better event sometime, somewhere next week. While the GFS miraculously develops a thin tendril of ok moisture return by 00Z Sunday, the precip is rather spartan given the strength of the shortwave emerging. Making the reasonable assumption said shortwave is poorly handled by the model in terms of strength, timing and placement this far out (and generously assuming it materializes at all), certainly with favorable timing storms will be possible Saturday on the western central plains, but unless a target materializes in deep west Texas or the high plains - weak moisture will probably be the killer for significant tornado prospects. Freak things can happen, so maybe things find a way to come together for Saturday, but I'd be very, very surprised if a tornado outbreak were to materialize that day."

I still stick by that faithfully, and whether I'm wrong or not on the whole will be played out later this week I guess. And for the record, I'd be reluctant to call last Saturday a tornado outbreak. It was however, a good chase day, and if I lived in that part of the country I'd have been out chasing with the rest of you guys. Instead, I'll be trying my luck with events later this week.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I wonder how that "As I said, I don't post forecasts for personal reasons" got on my last post David? I know I didn't type that. You wouldn't happen to be abusing your moderator priviliges would you?

First of all, nobody ever said that there weren't going to be tornadoes if dewpoints were in the 50's, so you were wrong to insinuate that anybody did. All I ever said was that without dewpoints in the 60's, you weren't going to have a major outbreak like you did on 3/28, which ended up being true.
(Assume that I DID say tornadoes were impossible with dewpoints in the 50's) I just think it is a weak move to try to criticize (in "jest" or not) somebody elses forecast when you never posted a forecast. It would be one thing if you forecasted what actually happened, but you didn't. Now by doing this it comes across as you think your forecast was superior, when in fact the only forecast you had was a secret forecast that nobody here had the privilige of seeing. Hindsight is 20/20. Post a forecast next time if you are going to gloat afterwards.

 

[David Drummond]

Actually I meant to edit mine and I clicked the wrong edit button. It wasn't intentional. Quit trying to make something sinister out of it.

Here's your forecast. I think there will be a tornado outbreak in the vicinity of the Red River valley tomorrow, ala April 10, 1979. Come bash me for it tomorrow when it doesn't happen. I promise I won't get offended.

I had a whole other post written up here but your determined to get the last word in on me so go ahead and I am going to let this go and go eat something. I'll be sure to try and not joke or kid with anyone on the forum again so you guys can rest easy.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

Pretty detailed. I'm glad you aren't doing my nowcasting.
Well, as usual my forecast will be in the fcst thread (where it's supposed to be) by tomorrow morning.
Go ahead and say your last word, I won't chime in. I have to get to work on my forecasting for tomorrow since I am chasing.

 

[Jay McCoy]

David you will never win this so why even bother. There are some on here who no matter how you explain things and talk about "experience" it wont make a hill of beans difference to them.

I stopped trying to answer people questions a long time ago because if they havent seen it it must not be possible.

And as for years chasing. Trust me years out on the road experiencing storms first hand will win over somebody reading a book anyday. I dont have a 4 year degree from some university but growing up in a wx dept watching my dad do wx for 30 yrs and me being on the road in the storms for 22 years I will put my forecasting and chase skills up against anybody. Especially on the caprock where it is a whole nother world. David knows exactly what I am talking about.

And MIkeG. Sorrry it has taken so long to answer. Soon as the wx pattern slows down and I actually have more than 10 minutes to myself I will get you some dates that had tornados in 40Td's. Just havent had time to answer all the PM's I have had the past week. too busy looking at data for the chases coming up.

 

[Joel Taylor]

I may be a little late but just a couple of quick notes:

1) There were at least 4 tornadic supercells with 3 being cyclic.
2) Many of the tornadoes were large, easily visible, and lasted a significant period of time so there wasn't an inflation in the number of reports due to things like a "skipping" tornado or sheriffnadoes.

I sure hope we can get some more moisture starved setups like this one in the future.

 

[Darin Brunin]

It doesn't really matter who said what or who's right or wrong. It's about showing respect for your fellow chasers and not gloating in a situation like this thread was started about. David, I find it pretty hypocritical that you would start a thread that you knew was going to turn into a flame war when it's your job to moderate this kind of stuff.

You're not above the rules of Stormtrack and in my honest opinion the first post on this thread was an attack no matter how much you try to play it down and should have been moderated from the start. I am not breaking any rules by posting my opinion, if you disagree with it....."that's the way the cookie crumbles". A personal attack would have been a different story but I did nothing but state my opinion on why you tried to put yourself on a pedestal above others and why it should have been stopped from the start whether you say it was a joke or not.

I do not post in the forecast section for a reason and it's nice to let other people know that if they do(and are possibly wrong) what kind of response they will get from a Stormtrack moderator with new threads being started about others' inferiority in t-storm forecasting.

As for you Jay.....You obviously want respect for chasing 22 years. If want respect, then show some towards others who haven't chased that long. There is a little thing that I like to call modesty and when you try to make everyone else who hasn't chased that long look inferior to you, it only makes you look like a jerk. I respect you and David and always have, I just want a little in return and when you act like I am not as worthy because I am only 22 years old it, makes me cringe a little.

I would have liked of seen this thread started by someone who isn't a moderator to see how far it would have gotten. I would bet on not as far we are now. But, I guess that's the political world that we live in. If you disagree, then ask yourself what the original topic of this thread was and and how anything positive was going to come out of it because I knew it from the second I laid my eyes on it.

 

[afischer]

...the people that were swearing we couldn't get tornadoes on the caprock with 50s dewpoints of questionable quality?

Sleeping soundly in my bed in between graveyard shifts, dreaming of chasing down a massive TX panhandle stovepipe with dews in the 30s.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

Jay, you are right when you say that David's "experience" won't make a "hill of beans difference" to me (did you really just say hill of beans?). You may have been chasing for 20 years, but if you only get out 10 times a year because you chase locally, then that is only 200 chases worth of experience. I (and many other younger chasers) chase all the way from ND-TX and probably get out >30 times a year, therefore I will have the same "on the road" experience as you after only 6 years. Toting how long you've chased is usually an indication of inadequacies in other qualifications used to judge a chaser IMO. How many years somebody has chased means virtually nothing to me once you get above 5 years. This will only be my 6th year chasing and I know that on any given chase day I will own you, so take your "experience" for what it's worth because it means nothing to me.

Between your post and the PM's you've sent me, I don't get why you think nobody can understand how to forecast/chase in the panhandle unless you've lived there. You act like the caprock is some magical place between Middle Earth and Narnia. It's 2,000ft higher than it is here, we get it. I understand how the geography on the East side of the caprock can favor certain areas for convective initiation, I understand how elevation influences convection, and you know where I learned that....... in a book.

I look forward to the case studies from the "countless tornadoes" you told me you filmed when td's were in the 40's Jay. No cold core/landspout business. You can get cold core tornadoes in Kansas with td's in the 40's. Legitimate mesocyclone tornadoes Jay.

 

[SteveCarter]

Never a dull moment in here anymore. Perhaps the reason David posted what he did, stems back from the controversy, and BIG disagreement to begin with....was this system going to pan out or not? If you remember, the moisture issue was pretty intense a few days ago, and many people seem to be taking sides with whether you should even bother to chase systems like this one. ref..weather and chasing.."forecast 4/20 - 4/26...everywhere". there were a few heated exchanges in there as well. So...those who said, 'I'm going, and looked at the positives"...DID go, and those that said they would rather be home doing anything BUT...didn't go. So this post IMHO...stems from THAT thread, and was a carry-over of that. I personally would not have started THIS thread, but I also don't think it's a big deal. I also don't think it's a diss on any chasers either. If you can't take a ribbing now and then, you need to lighten up and not be so serious. So he made the right call, and some of you didn't...next time it may be the other way around, but geeeesh....don't get so bent out of shape over it. I know the whole thing revolves around "gloating", but hey, he DID get it right. Like I said previously, i wouldn't have started this thread, so I'm not taking sides, just don't see the big problem here. And as for going chasing or going to Graceland? HMMMMM...that's a no brainer. I was at Graceland a couple of months ago, and had there been a clap of thunder within 200 miles, I'd have been LONG GONE. I'll regret not chasing Tuesday, but it's a 15 hours drive, (one way), so I have to pass on this one, but it's ALWAYS "balls-to-the-wall" if I'm chasing...why WOULDN'T it be? I guess some "chasers" only want the perfect set-up, or they find everything wrong with the forecast, or with every other persons perspective. I could do without the negativity, but I DO want everyones opinions on every forecast. It's hard to distinguish between the two sometime. I know I've pin-balled in here, but that's just the way i see it.

 

[Tomas Pucik]

Well, I live in Europe and might offer my experience. In January a derecho swept across Europe with deep low. In one of LEWPs in the system, oficially, F3 tornado occured seriously damaging residences.
Now, believe it or not, dewpoints prior to the arrival of derecho were...between 3 to 5C and that is... 37-41F. Even with that low moisture, storm was insane and tracked several hours across Western and Central Europe. Gusts on the leading edge of derecho reached 150 kph at some places. Also, severe HAIL occured. So you see, even without much moisture, good storms might form ( ehm, SRH was in order of 1000 m2/s2, CAPE between 100-500 J/kg according to the soundings just before the storm ).

 

[Karen Politte]

And as for going chasing or going to Graceland? HMMMMM...that's a no brainer. I was at Graceland a couple of months ago, and had there been a clap of thunder within 200 miles, I'd have been LONG GONE. I'll regret not chasing Tuesday,

Hi Steve,

I was just wondering what your objective point is here? I mean - seeing as you are referencing my post in particular - I'd like some clarification if at all possible as to how this relates to the way we forecasted for the event. It seems you're making some pretty bold assumptions on other people's priorities and I certainly don't appreciate it when they are made after I posted a good-natured, slightly comical reply to this slightly comical thread. I've also already said that I stand by my forecast posts that I made before this event and wouldn't have changed a thing. I am also not wailing about not having seen the tornadoes on Saturday - so your point is?

I have enjoyed participating in the forecasting thus far on ST, but the 2007 membership roster has changed so that I don't know if I can benefit any further from it. It's been a neat ride, though, and I will likely continue to read for enjoyment.

KL

 

[Jay McCoy]

Jay, you are right when you say that David's "experience" won't make a "hill of beans difference" to me (did you really just say hill of beans?). You may have been chasing for 20 years, but if you only get out 10 times a year because you chase locally, then that is only 200 chases worth of experience. I (and many other younger chasers) chase all the way from ND-TX and probably get out >30 times a year, therefore I will have the same "on the road" experience as you after only 6 years.

Actually I have chased in many many states and do so every year. I have chased in NM, Tx, Co, Ok, Ks, Ne, SD, IO, Mo, Ar. I can promise my 22 yrs arent just backyard chases. I am out almost every slight risk within 300 miles and on days I can get off I chase farther. Then I take about 3 weeks off work in the last half of may and 1st part of june and chase anywhere in tornado alley that there is storms. I probably chase at least 25 times a year so you do the math. Ofcourse number of chases doesnt mean much either unless your successful. You can chase 50 times but if you dont choose the right target your not going to catch the tornados.

And Darin, You are absolutely right. I shouldnt group people just by their years. There are some chasers with only 5 years or so that I highly respect even though they still have alot to learn and that only comes with experience. On the other hand there are chasers with 10-15 years that still can barley choose their own target with success so you do have to combine experience with knowledge and common sense. So I misspoke and I apologize for that. I dont expect respect for years chasing alone. I think my success rate over the years should also be considered. I give respect where I see it is earned. Even by the younger folks. Guys like Tony L., Jason Boggs, Graham Butler, etc.. have been at it for 6-10 years but have proven they are extremely capable chasers.

 

[Shane Adams]

If the mood needs to be lightened, you can all make fun of me for my lack of forecast ability. I call myself a "data interpreter"

As for what's more important in life, ain't no rules. For some it's Beale Street, for others it's Sunday afternoon in the park with the family, and still others, it's just one thing that consumes you. Doesn't matter what it is, just that something is. I tried to be "normal" in March and skipped out on the 28th.....figuring it would be the final test in my "I'm ready to be normal" experiment. HAAAA...a test it indeed was, but the result was I got so furious I was beside myself. So even though I've always known...now I REALLY know, through self-imposed tests....chasing tornadoes is what my life is about man, plain and simple. And there ain't nuthin' wrong with that