Slow tornado season so far

[STurner]

I have been disappoitned so far this season for there seems to have been very little activity. We get these days that seem to be so promising and then at the last minute it busts. I have chased very little and I feel for you chasers who may drive hundreds of miles to find out its a bust. It seems to be always be some key ingredient we are lacking such as moisture and instability etc. Probably you guys who chase wish that you could make up for that ingredient by lifting your up in the sky and splitting the clouds apart for sunshine to make the atmosphere unstable, or wish you had some kind of machine to pump moisture in the atmosphere to have enough juice for the storms. Seems also like every time you lack an ingredient the storms become linear or some kind of convection crap. Just hope something comes about soon for we are right in the heart of tornado season.

 

[Dean Baron]

We're just barely in to April...give it some time...

 

[Skip Talbot]

Just hope something comes about soon for we are right in the heart of tornado season.

I mark the start of the season as April 1... so we are merely three days in. Anything before then is an unexpected treat. If you always expect the beginning of the season to kick off with a bang, you are mistaken. Besides, wasn't there a moderate risk and a bunch of tornado reports yesterday?

Of course you are going to be missing ingredients in early season setups, mainly moisture and instability. I don't think we have had a slow start at all because we have barely begun. Even if April does turn out quiet, I don't doubt we'll get our fair share of chances in May or June.

 

[Eric Sipes]

If you look at previous years, the peak time for tornadoes is around the week of May 18th. Take last year for example. There was a lot of early season action across dixie alley and along the Mississippi Valley but, we didn't get any good tornado days on the plains until well into May. Give it some time, things will likely pan out in our favor several times in the next 2-3 months.

Trust me, I'm just as riddled with SDS as you are.
-Eric

 

[Jason Foster]

I personally vote for a great June rather than May....but that isn't a forecast, just what I'd prefer. That way I could make the Florida Governor's Hurricane Conference. Also would allow me to attend Hamvention in Dayton, OH (yeah...geek it up). Seems too that June storms move slower than May storms.

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

The GFS at 300hr plus range has been showing the development of a cutoff low in SW US for the past few days now with 60 Dp actually returning to the Plains. I know that range of the GFS has the accuracy of someone making an uneducated guess, but maybe it is picking up on something. Even the ECMWF was showing a cutoff low the past few days around 8 days out. The storms this time of year move too fast to enjoy, but one decent storm wouldnt hurt to help all of us make it to May and June.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

The statistical peak of tornado season is the last two weeks of May and the first week of June.

This topic comes up every year without fail. I remember in 2004 we had had a slow year and the thread was raging with posts in late April and early May about how the season sucked and then on May 12th the season started and was definitely one of the best in the past decade. It is really early right now. I was happy to get my first tornado in March (even though it was the most pathetic thing I've ever seen) so I can't complain right now. I do hate the pattern we're in, but like others have said, it's early.

I haven't looked at the GFS or European closely in the last couple days, but it looked like the progressive shortwave train pattern we've been in is about to end in the next week. After that I think the jet stream will move farther north and we'll get a split stream patter with weak southern disturbances like the one mentioned above (cutofff low). This should keep the gulf from getting the hell beat out of it like it has been for the last ten days or so. Over the next ten days I don't think there is any hope in getting decent storms in the plains, so I'm planning on the first half of April sucking. Maybe we'll get a little something out of the SW cut off low should it develop, but I don't think the kinematics would be strong with that so it wouldn't be a big tornado day IMO. Who knows how the synoptic scale pattern will evolve from there.
If we hit mid May and haven't had a good tornado day, then I'll start worrying. For right now though I'm not sweating it. I'm actually kind of glad we aren't getting any action because I'm still trying to get my equipment running.
edit - just glanced at the gfs and made a couple changes

 

[Adam Lucio]

I'm actually kind of glad we aren't getting any action because I'm still trying to get my equipment running.
edit - just glanced at the gfs and made a couple changes

You and me both, Im so far behind on everything that this slow period might give me a chance to catch up. It wouldnt be so bad if every other day we werent soaked with a miserable, thunderless cold rain with snow on the back side. If the weather were at least spring like and I could get outside it wouldnt be so bad.

I also think that once this pattern ends we will be quiet for awhile, Im nto expecting much of April, but methinks [more like hopes] that in may the SW flow will then return and well be in for a fun ride. Last year From about May 22nd to June 13th was a constant barage of insane tornado setups, and I wasted allot of my time off chasing early season meager-ness. So in the long run Im glad Ill have more days off to work with in case we get another scenario like that.

 

[Rob Wadsworth]

Well, I'm holding hope out for May.
Statistics are on our side, and If I'm going to chase this year it will be all of May. I have to take care of family business in Iowa, so I will be out there the first week of May.

Look at the bright side - less damage and loss of life. We may have the need to chase and catch; but others must suffer from these natural disasters. Remember last year? Yeouser - there were MANY deaths and much destruction. Thank God for the break. This isn't a popular view - I know - but that is the way I see it.

Is our thinking dualistic? We love the tornado, but hate its destruction capacity. We cannot have one without the other - and both are inevitable and unavoidable...

 

[Jason Boggs]

I personally vote for a great June rather than May....but that isn't a forecast, just what I'd prefer. That way I could make the Florida Governor's Hurricane Conference. Also would allow me to attend Hamvention in Dayton, OH (yeah...geek it up). Seems too that June storms move slower than May storms.

I'm not sure about better, but I think June will be just as good, and possibly better than May. I really have a feeling that June may be big around the southern plains this year. I just have that feeling...

 

[Verne Carlson]

It's just too hard to say how the season will be. The GFS is hinting at an awesome setup from April 17 - 20th but that may fall apart as we get closer.

I am encouraged at how much snow we have been getting along the front range of Colorado this past week. We were bone dry and now we are almost making up for the whole winter's worth of moisture in two weeks.

The mountains have been getting a decent amount of snow all winter with most of the river basins that flow into the plains at around 105% of normal.

 

[stephanieschweitzer]

Being this early in the season I am glad we have not had a staggering amount of action thus far. Being stuck here in WI through summer I am going to be making the long trek to the Alley in mid-May. We are still looking at a major snow storm Sunday night here. Winter is getting long, but I am not wanting to move to hastefully and waste what chase funds I do have saved for this year for a bunch of busts.

 

[Mark Blue]

I'm hoping for good luck from 05/18/09 - 06/03/09 as that is when our chasecation is planned for this year (wife and I). We're best friends so chasing together is fun and something we look forward to with great anticipation. Where we work (same place) we have to forecast our leave early in the year, so I chose what I believe is the best time of year for us to burn some annual leave in a concentrated period. We then reserve 3 or 4 extra days to play with where we can take short notice leave and chase somewhat closer to home (Denver). I haven't given up hope for the 2009 season as it still early and there's a lot of time left!

 

[Olivier Staiger]

most of it in June... and maybe also in June

 

[Jeff Passner]

You can't be serious??? It's April 3rd man...

This is normal... Fast moving storms early, less speed later. It's been going on since the creation of Earth. Climate is climate. It changes little in a lifetime. Some years the season starts in March, some years in May, some years are great some stink... Who knows... One of life's greatest lessons is patience. Relax, it will storm.