Slow March!

[Bob Hartig]

Yeah, don't take my first comment seriously--it was totally tongue-in-cheek. I don't think anyone here is really concerned about the future of the season at this very early stage, and that certainly wasn't implied in the opening comments. I was just playing off Jeff's wisecrack, and he was just poking fun at a Chicken Little mindset that shows up about this time of year: Oh, noooooo, the storm season's gonna suck! Oh, noooooo, the sky is failing!

But that mindset hasn't surfaced in this discussion. It's just somewhat related, and it's hard to resist. I think we've actually gotten off-topic from the OP, but that's okay--it's overall a good discussion with some interesting comments throughout.

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

Since 2004, I have had 4 years with March tornadoes (west of I-35). For anyone who chased March 2007, we are all spoiled after that. I had 10 tornadoes from 2 days west of the TX/OK border before April began. Those good years tend to give you hope every year. Same thing with the fall season, once you have a good chase in the fall you expect at least 1 every year. March generally throws at least one decent setup each year, but I dont remember 2010 or 2009 having one. 2009 was a dud in most peoples eyes and 2010 was amazing once we got to late April. It does not seem to have any influence on how the rest of the year goes, but I am all for it saving the fireworks for May.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Yep. I don't see anything particularly unusual about this March--not in the long scheme of things. I've lived through a good number of Marches, many of which weren't much different from this. Last year, on the other hand--I don't recall ever seeing a March like that.

Frankly, my hunch is that when the chase season does kick in, it'll be an active one. A delayed transition from the winter pattern suggests to me that there'll be steep lapse rates and strong dynamics in place at a time when there's more daylight to work with. That can't be bad. Things will happen when they do, and that'll be soon enough. Patience, campers, patience.

Yeah, good comments and I kind of share your hunch, Bob.

Remember that "normal" isn't just the mean or average. To really see what's normal, you have to take into account the variability. And, for March tornadoes, there is a huge variability. Just take a glance at the March annual tornado count by year that Mark posted above. By inspection, looks like the low was around 5 and the high 180 with numbers all over the place. While this year may come in close to a statistical low for March, it really doesn't say much about what's to follow in April.

 

[Warren Faidley]

March is not over yet. Just beyond the range of current forecasts, there seems to be a hint of activity during the later part of next week. We will see. W.

 

[Michael Thomas]

I think your storms just went on a holiday. Multiple tornadoes occurred yesterday in Victoria and southern NSW, Australia.

https://www.facebook.com/video/embed?video_id=10151309246450588
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83JaolExJvU
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/hu...torias-northeast/story-e6frf95f-1226602134758

 

[James Gustina]

Not to re-hash what everyone else already said but, its difficult after last March considering how ridiculous it was right out of the gates. I'm kind of glad that its been quiet early so its not interfering too much with school . I'd be perfectly content if the active part of the season holds off until mid-April, even as bored as I am with this flow regime.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Well in 2011, Iowa lit up in March. And of course last year we had the March 2 outbreak along with the March 18 stuff in OK. But like many said, March isn't really a pre-cursor to what the rest of the year is like. Remember 2010? Nothing at all until late April. Then we couldn't contain the awesome setups afterwards. I'm not going to panic about the season until its late April and there's a death ridge down the pipes.

Now the GFS is consistently showing something brewing around Easter Sunday on the 31st. I sure hope so cause I'm getting bored of these pathetic moisture starved setups.