• A student is looking for help on tropical cyclone prediction. Please fill out the survey linked to this thread: https://stormtrack.org/threads/storm-and-hurricane-intensity-prediction-survey.32957
  • After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

Robert Dewey - Imminent snow?

Joined
Jun 10, 2004
Messages
390
Location
Kitchener, ON, Canada
Robert, Nick, and any other Michiganites: it would appear that a snow event is inbound for you and us (S.O.), but on another mailing list, a student whose forecasting ability has proven quite accurate in the past, is thinking a dud. Since my skills are still non-existent, what do you think?

Be well, TR
 
Well, it certainly is interesting... The one thing I notice the most is the very dry air in the low levels, with dewpoints down to nearly -20F in southern Ontario, to around -6F or so in lower MI. Usually, this tends to stop significant snows in it's tracks. On the other hand, the latest 18Z ETA and GFS have bumped up QPF across this region to nearly 0.50 inches, and with a nice ratio of 1 to 20 or 1 to 25 would mean nearly a foot of snow for quite a few places. Supporting that would be the weak stability in the lower mid levels, as well as a very strong TROWAL that lingers around between 700-500mb in the >80% humidity layer and good vertical velocity through tomorrow afternoon which to me would point to mesoscale banding of snows. Again though, it's highly dependant on whether or not the dry low level air can be over come, so certainly not an easy forecast. I would tend to go middle of the road and call for around 6 inches, but if it appears that the low level dry air won't be too much of a problem, I would say 8-12 inches.
 
It's the dry air that I keep missing for some reason...ok, so am I correct in this reasoning:

Dry air is dry for a reason, that is, it is colder air, therefore more dense (like my brain lol) and lower ability to retain water. The only way for this air to be able to retain moisture (significant amounts) is to increase in temperature. This warmer air then has to pass over moisture (large water body for example) or be mingled with air already containing moisture. A large and dense enough cold dry air mass has enough clout to divert an "inbound" moist air mass or stop it.

Am I on track with this concept?

Thanx everyone, I'll have this down yet...

Be well, TR
 
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