B Ozanne
EF5
Models just kept increasing the QPF and lowering the pressure of the storm. By last night they were really getting an idea of how big it was going to be.
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Robert Dewey - Imminent snow?
- Thread starter Todd Rittinger
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Robert Dewey
EF5
I agree with B Ozanne about the models. But, what really got me, is that NWS DTX stated in their AFD yesterday afternoon (issued at 4:45 ET to look at the 18Z data) stated that the models were trending further south. I had to chuckle at that, as the latest 18Z ETA/GFS did show a northward trend, really beefing up the QPF.
The dry air was the main concern though, as it almost always kills snow events, at least in our area, which is why the NWS was having a hard time believing the models as far as higher QPF was concerned. Overall, after I had looked at the 18Z data, I was pretty sure of what was going to happen though, regardless of NWS forecasts...Dave Kaplow
EF4
Thanks for the replies, that’s about what I figured with the models. As far as I can recall, this is the first time in a very long while that there’s been a “surprise†major winter storm in the Northeast. Most of the other big events that this is now being compared to were successfully forecast days and even weeks in advance. Not this one! It was something of a shock to wake up this morning and see talk of 20 to 30 inches of snow, hurricane force winds, etc.
Given the last minute worsening in expected conditions, I think maybe it’s appropriate to move any further discussion of this ongoing event to the Blizzard of 2005 thread.
