Todd Rittinger
EF4
This is kinda my first serious kick at the forecasting cat and totally preliminary. I also posted it to a Canucky WX mailing list that I'm on. Any critique would be greatly appreciated! (apologies for posting this here, but I felt it doesn't warrant Target Area; Tim or Mods, please feel free to move to the Everything Else if this post violates the Weather and Chasing criteria)
TIA!
Be well, TR
Really not a forecast as I was tipped off by Kuhny, so more of an analysis and by no means complete in any way. Prior to writing this, I tried to avoid reading all list posts regarding this event. This analysis is focused on Southern Ontario.
The steps I followed:
1) Reviewed posts by Jerry on the WxCanada.com board (forecasting tips, skipping information already posted regarding this upcoming event) and Tom et al on mailing list. Additionally, followed two clues provided by Rob Kuhn: approx. event time, and inbound direction(s).
2) Head to Mike Sagers kewl model animation generator.
3) First run: 18Z, GFS-NCEP, Precip, North America, 96h. This model clearly shows 2 low pressure systems approaching SO, weaker one from the NNW, and the stronger one passing south of us from the SSW. Arrival looks like mid day Monday, with lingering effects into Wednesday. Barbs are also showing me some wind(s) attached to this event.
4) Second run: 18Z, ETA-Wisconsin, Precip, North America, 96h. This model only showed me 48h which in this case is not enough.
5) Third run: 18Z, ETA-DuPage, Precip, North America, 84h. This model agrees with the observations noted in step 3.
6) Fourth run: 18z, Canadian-Global (U of Q), Precip, North America, 144h. This model also agrees with the other two with one exception: the stronger southern low will be passing further south and east than the other models show.
7) What next? Surface (and higher) temps will effect the type of precip, and winds will determine drifting, visibility, and "piled up accumulations". Additionally, winds blowing over the lakes with affect precip totals, so one should determine great lake status for this event and direction of winds.
8) Fifth run: 18Z, GFS-NCEP, 500mb, North America, 144h. This model indicates the winds will be coming from the SSW then SSE by Monday afternoon and into Tuesday. Possible higher local accums from lake effect snow off Erie and Ontario. (I'm not sure at this point how much of these lakes are frozen over). Strongest winds appear to be Monday afternoon/evening, with the winds dropping off into Tuesday, but picking up again Tuesday aft/eve from the NNW and staying around into Thursday. 500mb temperature models are showing low enough temps that all precip should fall as snow. (see Remaining Question #1 below)
9) Then my brain exploded and I have developed a new found respect for meteorologists, forecasters, and storm chasers.
Conclusions:
While this is not even close to a complete analysis, we can draw some preliminary conclusions:
1) A winter event will occur beginning Monday, with effects felt into Wednesday (primarily drifting and blowing from strong winds, and some new precip). Monday will suck, Tuesday so-so for some of the day, Wednesday will suck. (That's official terminology as well)
2) The hardest hit areas will be (South) Eastern Ontario and the U.S East seaboard, with possibility of Maritimes. Southern Ontario itself will not feel the brunt of this event. Local accums near Erie and Ontario will be higher (assuming there is some open water). Wednesday will see local accums higher from Superior and Huron again assuming some open water.
3) Snow!
4) I have a LONG way to go in understanding the interactions between all the players in the weather drama.
Remaining questions:
1) Amount of snow based on QPF and RH.
2) Other factors contributing to, or detracting from this event.
3) Bunch of other stuff ;-)
Based on reading, reading, reading and then some reading, I'm concluding that successful forecasting relies on 4 steps:
1) Identifying events and/or event locations
2) Analyizing all the factors contributing to the event
3) Rejection or acceptance of the event based on #2
4) Refining and fine tuning as event draws closer (which could possibly lead to rejection of event)
Am I on the right track? There is so much information to consider, and as a result, I'm trying to formulate in my brain the basic steps/procedures to follow.
References:
http://www.michaelsager.com/weather/wim.html
http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gl)/guides/m...sfcobs/wnd.rxml
http://jrscience.wcp.muohio.edu/coriolis/c...utermodels.html
EDIT: corrected #6 which read "passing further south and west", but should have read "passing further south and east".
TIA!
Be well, TR
Really not a forecast as I was tipped off by Kuhny, so more of an analysis and by no means complete in any way. Prior to writing this, I tried to avoid reading all list posts regarding this event. This analysis is focused on Southern Ontario.
The steps I followed:
1) Reviewed posts by Jerry on the WxCanada.com board (forecasting tips, skipping information already posted regarding this upcoming event) and Tom et al on mailing list. Additionally, followed two clues provided by Rob Kuhn: approx. event time, and inbound direction(s).
2) Head to Mike Sagers kewl model animation generator.
3) First run: 18Z, GFS-NCEP, Precip, North America, 96h. This model clearly shows 2 low pressure systems approaching SO, weaker one from the NNW, and the stronger one passing south of us from the SSW. Arrival looks like mid day Monday, with lingering effects into Wednesday. Barbs are also showing me some wind(s) attached to this event.
4) Second run: 18Z, ETA-Wisconsin, Precip, North America, 96h. This model only showed me 48h which in this case is not enough.
5) Third run: 18Z, ETA-DuPage, Precip, North America, 84h. This model agrees with the observations noted in step 3.
6) Fourth run: 18z, Canadian-Global (U of Q), Precip, North America, 144h. This model also agrees with the other two with one exception: the stronger southern low will be passing further south and east than the other models show.
7) What next? Surface (and higher) temps will effect the type of precip, and winds will determine drifting, visibility, and "piled up accumulations". Additionally, winds blowing over the lakes with affect precip totals, so one should determine great lake status for this event and direction of winds.
8) Fifth run: 18Z, GFS-NCEP, 500mb, North America, 144h. This model indicates the winds will be coming from the SSW then SSE by Monday afternoon and into Tuesday. Possible higher local accums from lake effect snow off Erie and Ontario. (I'm not sure at this point how much of these lakes are frozen over). Strongest winds appear to be Monday afternoon/evening, with the winds dropping off into Tuesday, but picking up again Tuesday aft/eve from the NNW and staying around into Thursday. 500mb temperature models are showing low enough temps that all precip should fall as snow. (see Remaining Question #1 below)
9) Then my brain exploded and I have developed a new found respect for meteorologists, forecasters, and storm chasers.
Conclusions:
While this is not even close to a complete analysis, we can draw some preliminary conclusions:
1) A winter event will occur beginning Monday, with effects felt into Wednesday (primarily drifting and blowing from strong winds, and some new precip). Monday will suck, Tuesday so-so for some of the day, Wednesday will suck. (That's official terminology as well)
2) The hardest hit areas will be (South) Eastern Ontario and the U.S East seaboard, with possibility of Maritimes. Southern Ontario itself will not feel the brunt of this event. Local accums near Erie and Ontario will be higher (assuming there is some open water). Wednesday will see local accums higher from Superior and Huron again assuming some open water.
3) Snow!
4) I have a LONG way to go in understanding the interactions between all the players in the weather drama.
Remaining questions:
1) Amount of snow based on QPF and RH.
2) Other factors contributing to, or detracting from this event.
3) Bunch of other stuff ;-)
Based on reading, reading, reading and then some reading, I'm concluding that successful forecasting relies on 4 steps:
1) Identifying events and/or event locations
2) Analyizing all the factors contributing to the event
3) Rejection or acceptance of the event based on #2
4) Refining and fine tuning as event draws closer (which could possibly lead to rejection of event)
Am I on the right track? There is so much information to consider, and as a result, I'm trying to formulate in my brain the basic steps/procedures to follow.
References:
http://www.michaelsager.com/weather/wim.html
http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gl)/guides/m...sfcobs/wnd.rxml
http://jrscience.wcp.muohio.edu/coriolis/c...utermodels.html
EDIT: corrected #6 which read "passing further south and west", but should have read "passing further south and east".