Rick (EPAC)

[Josh Morgerman]

Good luck to any who chase!

I definitely won't if the satellite presentation continues to deteriorate and the prognosis remains grim. It's way too much hassle to schlep there-- even from Southern California-- for a dying Cat 1.

However... The cyclone looks to be turning more NNW now and is apparently right of the NHC forecast track. If it recurves more sharply than expected, it could perhaps make for a more interesting scenario.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The cyclone is looking a bit less virile this evening-- it's lost most of the super-cold cloud-tops-- and the NHC weakens it very aggressively as it approaches the coast, showing 70 kt just after landfall in Sinaloa. A chase is looking less likely tonight.

I'm almost relieved-- I have a hell workweek coming up. Leaving town for three days would have made it even worse.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Wow-- Rick is spinning down as fast as it spun up. The 2 am PDT intensity is 110 kt, although even that seems charitable, judging from latenight infrared imagery. It'' continue to unravel-- however, it should still come ashore as a hurricane.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Rick is weakenign due to both the effects of increasing shear, and completion of an eyewall replacement cycle. The slowing down is the first signs of recurvature.

The storm may actually just graze / miss the southern tip of Baja, putting that area in the LEFT semi-circle of the storm, which would be much weaker than the right semi-circle.

If this latter track materializes, and the weakening trend continues, the storm may pass south of the southern tip of Baja and hit mainland Mexico about a day later. The SST's there not as cool as west of Baja, however, with the shear over Rick, weakening will still continue and Rick may be barely a cat-1 at that point.

During the CPA (closest approach) to Baja (or in Baja if it strikes there), then we're talking about a high-end cat-1 / low-end cat-2.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

It has really fallen apart this morning! I was surprised the 8 am PDT advisory puts it at 100 kt. It's the worst-looking major hurricane I've ever seen.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

It has really fallen apart this morning! I was surprised the 8 am PDT advisory puts it at 100 kt. It's the worst-looking major hurricane I've ever seen.

Night is to day ... As best is to worst - That's Rick! What a RADICAL change in 24 hours.

I hope no one is already got tickets to go there (Mexico), and if they did, I hope they did not book on American Airlines!

Hint: AA has the highest fees to cancel / change a ticket ... Yes, I'm hinting this hurricane IS NOT worth chasing anymore

Another waste...

 

[Tyler Burg]

Night is to day ... As best is to worst - That's Rick! What a RADICAL change in 24 hours.

I guess! thats just crazy, satellite looks like crap now... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/vis-l.jpg

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Based on visible satellite ... We almost have an exposed center.

Amazing how a "little bit of shear" can quickly prevent a disaster of biblical proportions!

Edit: Storm as of 2 PM down to 100 MPH ... Looks like even my previous post of a high-end Cat-1 near Cabo was a bit generous. Maybe a high-end tropical storm at landfall / CPA at this point.

 

[Brian Osburn]

Now, it's going to miss Cabo entirely!

I was there earlier this summer. That spud of land sure has some mojo!

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Good day all,
I hope no one is already got tickets to go there (Mexico), and if they did, I hope they did not book on American Airlines!

Hint: AA has the highest fees to cancel / change a ticket ... Yes, I'm hinting this hurricane IS NOT worth chasing anymore

Another waste...

I sure didn't. I always wait until less than 24 hours before to buy, so I'm cool. Anyhoo, flights from LAX to locations on Mexico's Pacific coast are cheap and plentiful.

I'm almost relieved this one crapped out-- it would be have been a pain in the azz to miss a few days of work this week. I'm totally busy right now. It was fate!

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

I'm almost relieved this one crapped out ... I'm totally busy right now. It was fate!

QSL - Same here!

Edit: Funny seeing my post sitting here ... Maybe I should now say "low-end tropical storm" will be the landfall.

I have never seen a violent Cat-5 go to a tropical storm in less than 36 hours - That's a first for me.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The cyclone is having a bit of a resurgence this evening. It's definitely getting better-organized, and looks like it could make a run at Cat-1 intensity again. The satellite presentation now, as compared with 24 hours ago, is remarkably improved.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

It made landfall near Mazatlan this morning as a lame-azz tropical storm. The end.