Rick (EPAC)

[Josh Morgerman]

Some of the models-- like the Euro and the crazy HWRF-- show a much stronger landfall further S.

The latest NHC forecast suggests a Cat-2 landfall on the Baja, as the 80 kt at Day 5 is after the cyclone crosses the Peninsula-- suggesting it would be stronger at landfall.

The models have been trending right, showing a sharper recurve, so I'm wondering if subsequent forecasts might show a stronger landfall further S, on the mainland. The trend is what I find interesting here.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The latest advisory put the intensity at 130 kt-- however, the very latest satellite imagery suggests it might even be pushing Cat 5 (140 kt). Models are shifting E and faster, suggesting an increasing possibility of a Sinaloa landfall-- which from my point of view is much more desirable than a Baja landfall, as it would be stronger.

If I do this chase, I'm doing it with a Mexican whom I've been chatting with for years on another forum. I did my last two Mexico chases alone, and while I managed, it was tough because my Spanish isn't amazing. Having a Mexican chase partner will make it much easier this time around.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

In the words of the NHC, Rick is "spectacular". The current intensity is a whopping 906 mb/155 kt-- making it the second-strongest hurricane in EPAC history. Only Linda 1997 was stronger-- and it's still strengthening. Just a total whopper. The infrared and microwave presentations are breathtaking.

 

[Brian Osburn]

I'm ready to go. Josh, check your pm

 

[MClarkson]

Dr. Avila is correct in calling the sat images "Spectacular". If this isn't the best IR presentation I have ever seen it certainly ranks high among the contenders(Wilma, Isabel?). Almost perfect symmetry of the eye and CDO and cloud tops colder than almost any other hurricane. Its too bad there isn't going to be a recon plane. Id bet the central pressure is below 906mb.

 

[Danny Neal]

- Stunning!

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Dr. Avila is correct in calling the sat images "Spectacular". If this isn't the best IR presentation I have ever seen it certainly ranks high among the contenders(Wilma, Isabel?). Almost perfect symmetry of the eye and CDO and cloud tops colder than almost any other hurricane. Its too bad there isn't going to be a recon plane. Id bet the central pressure is below 906mb.

Totally agreed. It's heartbreaking that there isn't a recon mission into this thing to get hard data-- it's a pretty historic system. If it gets any stronger, it could beat out Linda 1997 as the strongest EPAC cyclone on record.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

I really wish I had the resources and time to chase down into the Baja Peninsula. As others have pointed out this has to be one of the best looking cyclones I have ever seen on satellite imagery. I can't wait to see what this thing looks like in the sunlight today. This is a classic example of a annular storm.
It looks as if Rick will keep strengthening a bit today before it starts its curve north so there is a good chance that it will surpass Linda. Right now his winds are currently up to 180mph (156knts) and the NHC thinks the winds could rise up to 185mph (160knts) so that would tie it with Linda's winds! It is a shame that they can't get a bird into her.

I am currious, how strong was the El Nino of 1997–98 when Linda was spinning over the ocean in comparison with the one we currently have in place right now?

For those who don't know Linda's record here it is: 185 mph (295 km/h) (1-minute sustained) Lowest pressure 902 mbar (hpa; 26.64 inhg)

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The models have been trending toward a sharper, faster recurve, which would mean a stronger, earlier landfall further S, on the Mainland. I'm hoping for this scenario to pan out-- it would make for a better chase.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

I got to move to California / Mexico or something ... Rick is a STRONG cat-5 at the 180-185 MPH sustained - Gusts are well over 200.

Certainly a site to behold.

Unfortunately, I am not chasing this one as I am really fed up with 2009 (saving my patience for 2010), and my presence out there will probably ruin it (jinx) for anyone else going

Most likely, the landfall (if in Baja) should be Cat-2 at best.

It is highly fortunate Rick is where it is now, gusts over 200 MPH are the SAME kind of destruction an EF-5 tornado will do - Or like someone putting their hand out a window of a jet plane after taking off - Something awesome to think about.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Most likely, the landfall (if in Baja) should be Cat-2 at best.

Climatology would agree, since no Cat-3 hurricane has ever hit Baja's W coast.

However... The models have been trending right, and some show a sharper recurve with a landfall further S. The cyclone may miss the Baja entirely, and a further-S landfall on the Mainland could be stronger. In fact, the chances of it hitting the Baja are only about 50-50-- which course presents an interesting dilemma Re: where to go-- Baja or Mainland? I'll decide tonight.

 

[GPhillips]

I am currious, how strong was the El Nino of 1997–98 when Linda was spinning over the ocean in comparison with the one we currently have in place right now?

The 1997-98 El Nino was the strongest on record, and it also started early, and was strong early. The latest 3-month average (JAS) SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region are only +0.8C, while at the same time in 1997, they were +2.0C. That was truly extraordinary.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

The 1997-98 El Nino was the strongest on record, and it also started early, and was strong early. The latest 3-month average (JAS) SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region are only +0.8C, while at the same time in 1997, they were +2.0C. That was truly extraordinary.

Wow that is incredible. I knew the 97-98 was the strongest El Nino on record I just didn't know it became so strong so quickly.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

I'm on the fence about this one as a chase subject. The NHC forecast is pretty aggressive about weakening, and I don't feel inclined to fly to Mexico for a rapidly unraveling Cat 1. A Cat 2, yes-- but anything less doesn't seem worth the hassle-- even given how convenient it is for me to get down there.

My chase partner, Jorge, and I still have time to think about it.

 

[Charles Kuster]

Rick is still an impressive looking category 5 hurricane with a well defined eye, though it does not look as incredible as it used to. Dry air is obviously impinging on the western side of the storm and outflow is only well established in the eastern two quadrants now.

Rick should make a rather sharp turn to the north and then northeast later tomorrow into the early morning hours on Tuesday as a trough over the western U.S. amplifies and slides east. Most models (most notably the GFDL) have Rick missing the Baja peninsula though I would not be surprised if it took a slightly more northerly track as shown by the HWRF and NAM.

I expect Rick to weaken rapidly as it approaches land late Wednesday. Models show continued dry air entrainment and strong southwesterly wind shear (~40 kts per the NAM) impacting the storm. These factors should lead to a Category 1 storm at landfall. Good luck to any who chase!