ChristofferB
EF2
- Joined
- Aug 27, 2009
- Messages
- 197
I beg to differ. The best structure I have ever seen was the June 11th outside Goodland/St Francis, KS: - it had everything, epic structure and a tornado underneath at the same time.
Poll: worst storm chase seasons in recent history
- Thread starter Jeff Duda
- Start date
I beg to differ. The best structure I have ever seen was the June 11th outside Goodland/St Francis, KS: - it had everything, epic structure and a tornado underneath at the same time.
Nice looking storm that I would definitely qualify as worth it had I been there. As I mentioned, my own awareness of opportunities in a given year might be quite imperfect- I do my best but cannot know about every setup in every location throughout the year- try as I might. Still, even adding one or several more missed opportunities to 2019, I wouldn't personally promote it over other years in the range for its potential.
I think it likely that no matter how much we try to be objective, the goodness of a season can be made or broken by a good couple storms we personally see or are aware of. A lot of people thought 2018 was terrible, but I saw the landspout fest, Tescott wedge, and several decent lightning days on the plains as well as SW monsoon, and the gorgeous Laramie tornado (which I missed) so maybe I underestimate that it was more sparse from other perspectives.
Tony Laubach
EF5
To be fair, I missed my share of bigger days within those years, including a few bigger May events that would've left the month out of the highlights for me that year. Of course, I'd rather forget some of those misses LOL But thinking back to March 28, 2007, which was probably the big day of that year (I missed that event due to college obligations).
Also, these days are heavily leaning toward tornado days, kinda using lightning photos or other storm stuff as tie-breakers. There are quite a few events that stand out that were not tornado-highlighted, but they don't weigh as heavily for me. I love a good structure day, but 99 times out of 100, I won't regret NOT chasing for structure. Obviously, it's not always about tornadoes for me, but that's the goal with most chases that are of appreciable distance. I think it's rare that I go out of my way for anything less than a decent tornado potential. So that's kinda where I am at.
Also, these days are heavily leaning toward tornado days, kinda using lightning photos or other storm stuff as tie-breakers. There are quite a few events that stand out that were not tornado-highlighted, but they don't weigh as heavily for me. I love a good structure day, but 99 times out of 100, I won't regret NOT chasing for structure. Obviously, it's not always about tornadoes for me, but that's the goal with most chases that are of appreciable distance. I think it's rare that I go out of my way for anything less than a decent tornado potential. So that's kinda where I am at.
James Gustina
Supporter
My chasing has really tapered off over the past 3 years just due to work constraints/somewhat of a lack of drive to get out. 2018 and this year I didn't have the option for a chasecation/freedom to go out whenever with any sort of frequency so that likely skews my perception a bit.
2009 definitely gets saved by a handful of days in June and some spread out setups earlier in the season. It was a weird year regardless and I didn't chase very much except for late May into early June in the Midwest.
In more recent times, 2014 is similar in that it was saved by a much better June even with a truly putrid run of setups on the Plains in late April into May. It still stands as my worst year based on volume of chases just due to the truly god awful setups I chose. I didn't get to chase in June so I don't think I saw a tornado-warned supercell until September 1st on the Geuda Springs, KS storm. The effects of drought this year on the southern Plains were immense and it showed with moisture cratering out on multiple setups.
2018: Tough year but there were some gems sprinkled throughout the season with Tescott, KS and Capitol, MT coming to mind. The only tornado I saw that year was the crappy Lone Wolf dust whirl on May 2nd that can barely be counted. That said, I chased a whopping 3 times all year so I can't really say it was objectively bad.
2019: Had a week long chasecation from May 20th to the 27th and blew every setup. We were in the Panhandle for the majority of the trip and whiffed 4 consecutive days from the 23rd to the 26th. Personally can't ding this season for bad luck/bad forecasting as the opportunities were there for me.
2020: I couldn't justify a single chase day for time off this year. Outside of the southern Oklahoma tornadoes at the end of April, I regret missing absolutely nothing from this season. Assuming June stays locked up with a smattering of setups on the northern Plains, I don't really think this season is going to have an equal outside of maybe 1988 for how terrible it was.
2009 definitely gets saved by a handful of days in June and some spread out setups earlier in the season. It was a weird year regardless and I didn't chase very much except for late May into early June in the Midwest.
In more recent times, 2014 is similar in that it was saved by a much better June even with a truly putrid run of setups on the Plains in late April into May. It still stands as my worst year based on volume of chases just due to the truly god awful setups I chose. I didn't get to chase in June so I don't think I saw a tornado-warned supercell until September 1st on the Geuda Springs, KS storm. The effects of drought this year on the southern Plains were immense and it showed with moisture cratering out on multiple setups.
2018: Tough year but there were some gems sprinkled throughout the season with Tescott, KS and Capitol, MT coming to mind. The only tornado I saw that year was the crappy Lone Wolf dust whirl on May 2nd that can barely be counted. That said, I chased a whopping 3 times all year so I can't really say it was objectively bad.
2019: Had a week long chasecation from May 20th to the 27th and blew every setup. We were in the Panhandle for the majority of the trip and whiffed 4 consecutive days from the 23rd to the 26th. Personally can't ding this season for bad luck/bad forecasting as the opportunities were there for me.
2020: I couldn't justify a single chase day for time off this year. Outside of the southern Oklahoma tornadoes at the end of April, I regret missing absolutely nothing from this season. Assuming June stays locked up with a smattering of setups on the northern Plains, I don't really think this season is going to have an equal outside of maybe 1988 for how terrible it was.
Well May 2020 was one for the record books.
-May 2020 was the first year without a moderate risk or higher Day 1 outlook issued in the 1995-present period.
-May 2020 had the fewest number of tornado watches in recorded history (1970-present).
-May 2020 had the fewest severe weather reports since May 2014.
-May 2020 had the fewest recorded tornadoes since at least 1970 (likely longer).
-May 2020 had the fewest number of EF2+ tornadoes in recorded history (1950-present)
From post on SPC Facebook page on June 2nd.
-May 2020 was the first year without a moderate risk or higher Day 1 outlook issued in the 1995-present period.
-May 2020 had the fewest number of tornado watches in recorded history (1970-present).
-May 2020 had the fewest severe weather reports since May 2014.
-May 2020 had the fewest recorded tornadoes since at least 1970 (likely longer).
-May 2020 had the fewest number of EF2+ tornadoes in recorded history (1950-present)
From post on SPC Facebook page on June 2nd.
Bob Schafer
EF5
12, 14, 16, 18, 20
Anyone else notice that the top-5 years for fewest May tornado watches was every-other year since 2012? That's kinda weird.
Anyone else notice that the top-5 years for fewest May tornado watches was every-other year since 2012? That's kinda weird.
Peculiar, sure, but there's no scientific reason to think it means anything.
Rick Schmidt
EF3
I have done one chase this year, with no tornadoes. I usually average 10-12 chases per year. I obviously voted for 2020.
JamesCaruso
Staff member
The every-other-year pattern is a strange coincidence, but the fact that the top 5 years for fewest May tornado watches happened in the past decade is certainly an interesting fact that corroborates just how bad the decade has been for chasing, particularly for chase vacationers heading out during the traditional peak May season.
What‘s really weird for me personally is that, while the above corroborates the generally dismal stretch I have had in recent years, it just so happens that two of the years (2012 and 2016) are the ONLY years I have seen tornados since 2012!
Jeff House
Supporter
Have not been able to buy a -PDO for almost a decade. I think cooler waters off the West Coast would help trough evolution. Now with +PDO we are constantly fighting a semi-permanent Northwest ridge, with crap undercutting or just stumbling across. That's not very scientific, but I'm trying to paint a picture here.
Perhaps climate change has reached the point Oceans can't sink heat any more. Will AN SSTs just dominate? Even with climate change, variability will remain. Guess we just have to wait it out. I'm not ready to chase hurricanes yet. Great Plains is my love!
Perhaps climate change has reached the point Oceans can't sink heat any more. Will AN SSTs just dominate? Even with climate change, variability will remain. Guess we just have to wait it out. I'm not ready to chase hurricanes yet. Great Plains is my love!
Michael Towers
Supporter
I chased the Dakotas a weekend ago and if Sunday the 7th had busted I think 2020 would have vaulted past 2012 for second worst season. The chase on the 6th set a record for longest bust ever at over 850 miles to target, I could have stuck around for the wind show but I preferred getting back east early enough to get a good night’s rest for the next day. I did salvage the day though by taking a detour through Badlands National Park so it wasn’t a total waste…glad I listened to that little voice saying do it just in case. While the 7th didn’t bust it was basically an HP junk-fest but even so I still had a blast and love chasing that part of the plains. But at about 2200z and still waiting for something good to pop I was wondering if it was going to be a 2300+ mile round trip disaster.
Since it has been a few weeks, I have altered the final option so that it no longer says "so far" and have allowed people to change their votes.
Brett Roberts
EF5
2020 is going to take this running away, unless the slew of very marginal days ahead overperforms in most improbable fashion. The only thing that could possibly be used to argue against 2020 among the options on this poll is storm structure, which I would say subjectively has been better than 2017 and 2018; perhaps others, as well. For targetable, highly visible tornadoes, it doesn't really get any worse than this year, minus April 22. It's a very close match to 2006, which had a couple decent but unremarkable tornado days in April, and then essentially nothing in the heart of the season. This year was more active in late May and June than 2006 and some of the other least active years, but every single opportunity went to shit in real time, more or less. So, for 2006 vs. 2020, I guess it comes down to whether you'd rather have opportunities that fall through (possibly with structure and hail as consolation prizes) or just know to stay home the whole year.
Ethan Schisler
EF5
2006 was a decent year in Illinois/Missouri for supercells and tornadoes and started pretty early with a big outbreak on March 12th, so I have to vote for 2020 here....only decent day I've had is May 23rd in IA/IL.
