Poll: worst storm chase seasons in recent history

Which was the worst year for storm chasing in general?

  • 2009

  • 2012

  • 2014

  • 2017

  • 2018

  • 2019

  • 2020


Results are only viewable after voting.
2020 so far. 2009 at least had the Aurora tornado on 6/17/09. 2012 had a huge tornado day in KS/OK in April. I don't remember much from 2018 but I don't think it was as bleak as 2020 has been for the heart of tornado alley. Look at the tornado watch and severe thunderstorm watches maps on the SPC page (someone posted them in a thread here recently). That's the only thing you really need in order to see how bad it's been. The best tornado days this year have either been in Dixie alley or buried along the Red River. Iowa is the only place in traditional tornado alley that has seen anything worthwhile so far this season. 2006 at least had the huge outbreak on 3/12. It might have been early in the season and not in the heart of tornado alley, but the placement, magnitude, and overall chaseability were all way better than anything so far this season in the plains.

June could still prove to be decent. At this point though it would be more likely that the northern plains would be the saving grace for the season and us northerners could still call it a decent season. Anyone stuck chasing the central and southern plains would likely still consider the entire season a bust. If this were to end up happening, you have to break down the season's success by region, which tends to happen most years anyway. For many years recently, our northern plains season have been very unproductive/disappointing, even in years considered "good" due to memorable storms/tornadoes out of our reach in the central and southern plains.
 
The GFS does advertise a couple of trofs digging through the S Plains, 6-4/5 and 6-9, but I'm hopeful the virus situation will improve enough that I will be willing to do multi-day chases by late June and I love chasing the Dakotas. Here in CO we had zero deaths a couple days ago. Please let's not have a second wave.
 
I didn’t chase in 2006 as I was having my house built but I remember not being frustrated at having to miss anything significant.

2012 would be second worst, I missed the big April event and only chased twice with one being a total bust. I also remember two times I had my vehicle packed for a trip and fired up my laptop before leaving to hone my target only to find there wasn’t a target worth chasing anymore. Unpacked the rig and went to work both times instead.

2018 would be the worst, I only chased May 1 & 2. I picked the wrong storms on May 1 so I missed all the tornado action and May 2 did feature a tornado on my storm...when my back was turned. Similar to 2012 I cancelled a trip after checking data in the morning…from my hotel in KC. Yep, drove all the way to KC primed for action the next day in SW Kansas only to find the set-up had gone to crap overnight. I think that was the hardest chase planning decision I’ve ever made but I couldn’t justify wasting more time and money just because I was already en route. Thankfully it turned out to be the right decision as the day was a mess but if it would have produced it would have been my all-time biggest bust/mistake ever.

2020 gets an honorable mention to date, two backyard chases but I went out of the backyard and into Iowa in March and missed what little happened and had to work last Saturday until 1:30 and missed the last western Illinois tornado by 5 minutes. This will be the only chase season aside from 2009 & 2012 not featuring a plains chase through May.
 
It would be cool if we could have some sort of running, crowd-sourced ranking for each year. I know the survey above serves as that in a way, but I'm thinking of something that would be based on the chase days each year (or lack thereof) and how chasers rated those (something as simple as good, "eh", or bad). It could even be broken down into tor numbers and quality and storm numbers and quality. I'm not sure such a thing is possible, nor do I personally have the time or probably the creativity to pursue it myself. Just throwing it out there in case there is someone who is interested enough and able to do such a thing. I know Dan Robinson did this in a way for chase days back in 2018, which I'm pretty sure was spawned by talk of how that was one of the worst, if not the worst year ever...
 
I looked at my logs. Keep in mind I am rating these based on chasing opportunities in and near the Great Plains in late May/early June.

2018 wasn't great. No tornadoes, but we did see some decent structure and there were chase opportunities (even if it meant going to ND), where 2017 lacked opportunities. 2019 had opportunities but most were in poor chase terrain or at night. So I would rank 2019 and 2018 about equal with 2017 worse.

Due to massive drought, in May/June 2012 the only opportunities were on the edges of the drought in far flung places (western MT, southern NM) and they were few and far between.

2009 was terrible, even MDT risks busted. The Goshen tornado was the only decent thing, but of course I missed it.

I wasn't out in 2006 but a close friend was and I remember him telling me it was his worst year.
 
Re: 2006 - As I posted previously, I remember it being one of my worst chase trips (May 27 - June 5) and seem to remember nothing much happening after that in June either. But memories can be unreliably distorted, so I went back to my logs. Most years I type up a journal for each day. Some years I summarize the results of each day in a spreadsheet, other years I wasn't as good about doing that. When I went back into my 2006 files, I was surprised to see that I had geeked out and put together a PowerPoint slide deck, one slide for each day containing the SPC storm reports and a summary of our chase actions/results! I hadn't even remembered doing this, and it's probably one of the only years I did - evidence of just how bad it was, I was trying to wrap my head around it and maybe convince myself I hadn't missed anything...

Anyway, here's a rundown of every day during that 2006 trip, in case anyone is interested, since many on here were not chasing back then and may want to know what the "old days" were like :)...

5/27 - no TOR reports on the Plains, only TOR Watch was in ND. This was actually my Plains arrival date.

5/28 - One TOR report in NE, around the eastern edge of the Panhandle and not too far south of the SD border. I actually have a note that a particular reputable chaser discredited this report based on his own observations. We actually blew off the NE Panhandle setup to not put ourselves out of range for a Kansas setup the next day. Also because temp/dewpoint spreads were high.

5/29 - Three TOR reports in west TX. My notes say these were landspouts and no TOR risk had been anticipated by SPC. This was out of range for us having been in North Platte the night before. KS just had hail reports and we just got weak storms on a cold front near Hutchinson.

5/30 - One TOR report in southeastern NM just above the TX border that runs east/west. My notes say we targeted the western OK Panhandle and that the areas was also favored by a lot of chasers but it did not verify. There was one hail and one wind report in that area. Numerous hail and wind reports in the TX Panhandle and in central KS

5/31 - TOR report in northeastern CO near WY border but no tornado mentioned by chasers. Later updated LSRs had a second tornado on the WY side of the border. Only other TORS were in IL and IN.

6/1 - No TOR reports in the whole US. There was a potential upslope setup in CO but we spent the day in Colorado Springs keeping an eye on developments; there were none. Only severe reports on the entire Plains were two hail reports in northcentral NM and southwestern NM and a couple in northeastern KS.

6/2 - A repositioning day for us, driving from Colorado Springs to the Black Hills area. My notes say "storms in and near Cherry County Nebraska were generally a surprise and a mesoscale accident. Area not in SPC Slight Risk (note - I think this was before the days of the "Margin" risk category). Storms referred to as "Sandhill Surprise" by other chasers." I remember seeing the anvil of this isolated supercell from a long distance away, with nothing but blue sky all around, the memory is coming back to me now - amazing, 14 years ago!

6/3 - One TOR report on the KS/CO border near Goodland, appeared to be an isolated landspout based on correspondence with other chasers. Not sure why the day before I had been heading to the Black Hills, but the only actual reports in SD today were way up in the north central part of the state (mostly hail, one wind)

6/4 - Only severe reports on the Plains were one wind report in southeast WY on the NE border and one in southcentral Nebraska

6/5 - Total of three TOR reports. SPC map shows red in southeastern SD and southeastern ND; I can't tell which red dot is actually two dots and which is one... (I only put the map, not the text, in my PowerPoint). We had targeted Kearney NE but it was on a cold front and pre-frontal trough, nothing good materialized but there are some hail reports.

In my 2006 chasing files, I also found correspondence with a veteran chaser - and I mean one of the originals in the "generation" (not necessarily by age but by when he started chasing) like Jim Leonard, Tim Marshall, et. al. - not much older than me (I don't think) but he was already a well-known chaser even when I started. I won't name him to respect privacy. But I found some correspondence with him where he called it the "worst chase alley season since 1987/1988" and his only highlight of the season (through May 31 when the correspondence is dated) was El Reno OK tornadoes on April 24. He noted if not for that storm, he would not have even taken a "picture of a supercell" to that point. He further wrote, "The pattern just hasn't been good enough to get me out the door the past few weeks. (Note - he lived in OK!) Ridging over the plains just won't go away and persistent eastern US trough has prevented/retarded return of deep, tropical moisture. Long range forecast for the next 8-14 days looks like deep summer and is pretty hopeless." In this correspondence, I had indicated that there had been no southern Plains tornadoes since around May 9 (but I haven't gone back to verify that). Based on my above reports, I must have been ignoring the 5/29 west TX reports as just landspouts and also must have been ignoring the NM reports because they were pretty far west and not so much part of traditional "southern Plains" territory.

EDIT: Since this was only a 9 or 10 day trip, I'm quite sure it was shortened on one end or the other precisely because it was so bad; normally my trips are 14-16 days including travel.
 
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Indeed 2006 is the benchmark for awful years, with an early death ridge that never relented for June. I'd swap my 2018 for 2006 if it's on there. Keep 2020. So, I think 2006 and 2020 are the worst years. All the other loser years had something in June or otherwise a late save.

2020 is not over yet. We could get Wyoming action or some surprise in the Upper Midwest. Until June it's not over. No June would tie 2006.
 
Indeed 2006 is the benchmark for awful years, with an early death ridge that never relented for June. I'd swap my 2018 for 2006 if it's on there. Keep 2020. So, I think 2006 and 2020 are the worst years. All the other loser years had something in June or otherwise a late save.

2020 is not over yet. We could get Wyoming action or some surprise in the Upper Midwest. Until June it's not over. No June would tie 2006.

Yep, I'd agree -- a consensus seems to be forming on 2006 and 2020 being comparatively terrible (and the top 2 worst) years. The fascinating thing is the difference in why they are terrible. 2006 seems to have featured a more classic "death ridge" type pattern. While 2020 has featured some high-amplitude ridges over the plains, what really seems to be restricting potential for events is a combination of poor moisture return (because we can't get decent troughs) but also the prevalence of cut-off lows, which are part of the reason we're not getting much moisture return. The mid-level flow lacks consistency -- there are days and small regions where supercell-shear exists, but it is not in traditional synoptic scale configurations and seems to lack predictability altogether, resulting in mesoscale-driven setups that consistently lack an ingredient (e.g., last Saturday in NW KS...the area was only able to manage upper 50s dews...in late May). And the dryline has been incredibly diffuse most days, so we're not getting any help from that.

Further observations of the pattern responsible for this terrible year?
 
Funny thing about my 2006 pictures folder: It contains 120 pictures! Not all are storms, but most are. There are many wall clouds, funnels and beautiful structure from 14 different chase days, yet as I previously mentioned my tornado count was one POSSIBLE. Here it is, contrast jacked:

060531_2119d (2019_04_05 18_51_53 UTC).jpg

So I found quite a few storms, but they just would NOT produce! That said, I had to go to the Rio Grande in SW TX to Indianapolis to MT and ND to find them.
 
I think the answer varies depending on where you live and whether you're a chasecationer or only chase locally. I've often thought about taking a few weeks off and chasing, but I think it would be stressful picking the right dates. And in quiet years like this one, I would rather use vacation days for something else. So I usually limit myself to Wyoming and neighboring states. Here's my perspective on the last 5 years as someone who lives on the Northern Plains:

2016: Before leaving Illinois, spring was nearly dead. After moving to Wyoming in June, the High Plains were nearly dead. While there were tornadoes, I wasn't living in the right place at the right time.
2017: Worst year overall. 6/12 was the big outbreak, but if you busted like I did there was pretty much nothing else to see.
2018: Lots of opportunities even though I missed many of them. But Capitol/Buffalo on 6/28 made the season for me.
2019: Best year overall, saw 7 tornadoes. Locally the season didn't really start until the end of June, but it also went all the way into September
2020: The jury is still out
 
I realize I have been pretty lucky with my timing on chasecations during my 10 years of chasing:

2009: First year. Came early June, saw the Goshen County as my 1st tornado ever. Had some pretty cool storm experiences thereafter but I was amazed by pretty much everything we saw. Caught a bird fart on the last day.

2012: Only chased for 5 days. Drove from 5.30 am to late in the evening all over the place. Lucked out completely by catching LaCrosse on our way home when we had to drive through southern KS. We actually drove under the 2nd tornado at night. I looked out of the window when I saw a glimpse of a tube through all the lightning and it was literally on top of us, just touched down somewhere to our right (in the dark).

2013: Only unlucky chase date selections. Should have chase mid May but got stood up and had to re-book to early May. Saw nothing noteworthy in 10 days. Missed all the historical events later on obviously. My only chasecation without a tornado.

2014: Not lucky enough to select mid June but rather end of May. Only saw a brief landspout tornado and only had 2 chase days out of 6. Terrible season.

2015: Was there for Canadian, TX. Did miss out on Simla.

2016: I landed on May 21st. Missed out on Bennington but was there for everything else. The 2nd week was extremely slow though.

2017: Actually one of my best seasons despite a slow start. Got the CO/WY/NE tornado fest and lucked out on some spectacular storms afterwards as well.

2018: Awful season but did see the Cope landspout fest at least.

2019: Pretty awful season as well and the one with the worst timing I think. Had an incredible day in Goodland, KS, and got the best photograph in my career but my chase partners saw tornadoes 3 days in a row just after I left. Also missed the 8 day span in mid/late May.

2020: Did not chase. My set days for chasing supposedly were pretty much down days so I would likely have had my 2nd season without tornadoes if I had chased.

I often consider my seasons in terms of average and max experience, where the max experience often is the most important one. If I have one AMAZING day, I am usually fine with the rest of the week being completely crap. I come for the amazing experiences, that's why I chase and that is what I usually remember. It also provides the photographs I love to have. Still, if the average experience is really bad (like in 2018) it still leaves me with a negative feeling - despite some excellent photos. Out of all the above seasons, 2013 was probably the worst. We had no exciting day whatsoever and nothing to remember. In 2014 we at least had one decent day but it was pretty much only one real day of chasing for that whole season.
 
I gotta throw a vote for 2006 as well... since I started taking long-term time off to chase starting in 2003, '06 was by far my worst year. 2020 is making a run for that title, but I have hope for the second week in June when I am taking some time off to get out a bit more outside of Kansas. I'm a one-day saves a season kinda guy, and it won't take much to elevate 2020 over 2006, even as I am now officially as deep into the year without a legit tornado as I have ever been (also the fewest chases/miles to this point).

That said, 2006 I had a very busy May, so statistically 2006 will be tough to beat on paper because the percentages will be so much lower just having chase much more... my mileage number is skewed as I lived in Denver in 2006 and am currently in Wichita, but the difference is very reflective of how little I am chasing this year.

STATS BY MAY 31: 2006 vs. 2020

CHASES - 2006: 16 - 2020: 11
MILES - 2006: 13,967 - 2020: 3,313
TORNADOES - 2006: 2 (both pretty pathetic) - 2020: 0 (maybe 1 of the dust whirls I saw on the 21st was a legit landspout, but still going with 0 at this point)

The 2006 season provided a pretty epic Fall setup which would've saved my season had we not stopped at Arby's for a too-long lunch enroute to SD (yes, it literally came down to that). I hold out hope that I will get ONE day to save this season, which will put it over 2020, and depending on the quality of that day, may move ahead of the last couple seasons for me which at least featured some numbers to put on paper.

Here is a list of "day" or "days" I remember a season for starting back in 2003...

2003: May 15 - Stratford, TX
2004: May 12 - Attica, KS; May 29 - Southern KS
2005: April 10 - Trego County, KS
2006: May 5 - Patricia, TX (literally caught only the low-contrast rope out)
2007: April 13 - Seymour, TX
2008: May 22, 23, 29 along/north of I-70 in Kansas
2009: April 26 - Plainview, TX; June 5 - Goshen, WY; June 17 - Aurora, NE
2010: May 22 - Bowdle, SD; May 24 - Meadow, SD
2011: May 24 - Canton, OK
2012: April 14 - Geneseo/Solomon; May 25 - Walker/Wakenney
2013: May 18 - Sanford, KS; Oct 4/Nov 17 Fall Chases
2014: June 16 - Pilger
2015: November 16 - SW Kansas Outbreak
2016: May 24-25 in Kansas just to start
2017: June 12 - Carpenter, WY
2018: May 14 - Arkansas City, KS (a lower-end tornado, but it saved '18)
2019: May 6 - Lewis, KS (the nighttime photo I snagged, but still a low-end year)
2020: TBD

Here's how I'd rank my 3 worst years, excluding 2020..

#1 Worst: 2006
#2 Worst: 2003
#3 Worst: 2018

If my only tornado of this season were to equal the quality of the Arkansas City tornado in 2018, the lightning venture I had a few weeks ago would move 2020 ahead of 2018 (the 2018 car crash didn't help). So yes, it won't take much to elevate 2020 out of the bottom 3. If 2020 stayed as ho-hum as it is now, it would probably make the #2 worst season. 2006 was rough, lack of tornadoes, lack of really anything good that year. At least this year, I have some amazing lightning photos and a couple good hailers.

So yes, a solid catch would move 2020 out of the bottom three seasons for me... already the lightning outing I had earlier this month kinda put the year on the map, so it's not like I come out empty. But there you have it, from an old guy. LOL
 
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As I look at the rundown from @Tony Laubach , it’s interesting to see that only 10 of the 18 years had their defining day in May, and only 5 of the 18 had their defining day during the time I usually take my chase vacation and consider to be peak season, which is the back half of May and first week of June. In the past 7 years starting in 2014, only 1 year (2016) had its highlights in the last half of May, while *none* of the last 4 years did. I know these are just Tony’s personal highlights and there may have been other good storms in some of those years, but Tony chases a lot and is good at what he does so if there was anything much better he probably saw it and it would be on his list. Gives some perspective on why my own personal chase vacation record has been so dismal for so many years now.
 
it’s interesting to see that only 10 of the 18 years had their defining day in May

So we're going off on an interesting tangent here. I have long said that I have had much more success in June than May, and I'll rack things up similar to Tony's way of doing it. Only one day allowed:

2003, May 15 Stratford
2004, June 12 Mulvane
2005, June 11 S of Vega TX ; a tornado only I and my chase partner saw AFAIK

050611l (2019_04_05 18_51_53 UTC).jpg
2006, May 31 possible tor CO/NM line
2007 doesn't count 'cause I didn't chase at all
2008, May 22 Grainfield KS & more
2009, April 29 Cedar Hill TX
2010, May 31 Campo
2011, June 20 York NE 2011 was a tough call because of being a pretty big year for me including my only F5, but gotta go with York.
2012, June 14 tor S of Holly CO
2013, May 28 Bennington1
2014, June 16 Pilger
2015, June 4 Simla (gets the nod over Canadian, Vona, and November in KS. Unbelievable year)
2016, May 16 Texline TX (after which my car broke, ending my season)
2017, June 12 CO/WY/NE corner
2018, May 28 CO Landspoutfest
2019, May 17 McCook NE not sure if this date is correct. I lost EVERYTHING from 2019 in a computer crash like, 8 hours after temporarily(!) deleting my backups.

So, biggest days in:
April: 1 year
May: 8 years
June: 7 years

This surprises me, given what I just said about June. I have never gone through this analysis before, but most of those May biggest days were relatively lame compared to my May 31 and June biggest days: Mulvane, Campo, York (which is underrated. This was a truly epic day), Pilger, Simla. ...and Bennington1 was May 28. Those, plus only May 21 2011's Emporia and May 27 2015's Canadian, are my no-doubt-about-it career top 8.
 
Started leaving on chases out of state in 2011.

I think the best way to answer the poll is what were the available opportunities? Actually realizing those opportunities or not doesn't mean they weren't there for someone. Of course my awareness of opportunities might be quite imperfect but I try to be attentive to all chase areas during spring, summer and fall seasons and see what kind of photos people get even if I cannot be out.

As a photographer who chases I consider great lightning, great structure, or even beautiful updrafts or a stormy sunset as 'counting' equal with seeing tornadoes and am personally unimpressed and uninterested in tornado counting as a measure of success or quality. The experience and opportunity to see any photogenic beauty in the sky and observe fascinating dynamic and exciting weather is what I 'count', and I only really 'count' vaguely as a rough measure of the worth of my investment in time and money chasing.

Based on my own criteria of goodness- photogenic severe weather opportunities whether I was there or not- the least I'm aware of in March through May has easily been 2019 and 2020.

2019 only had a few photogenic events: McCook, the Imperial structure day, a July WY tornado and a couple structure days in TX and OK. The actual season core in mid-late May in TX and OK was an active couple weeks of garbage mostly linear mode soup with ugly tornadoes and even uglier storms. A few great lightning barrage days and structure to be had during the prime of the season if you stayed west near Lubbock or in NM. Monsoon in the SW was awful by most accounts. Speaking subjectively on 2019: I managed to get something photogenic on only two days out of about seven chases, and didn't bother to even leave the house for many of the trashy setups (which was usually justified).

2020 has been so much worse, with just a low opportunity for photogenic storms. Except an over performance in SW Kansas, and a couple other lesser but decent structure days in TX and OK there has been almost nothing. One decent lightning show in NC Colorado. The prevailing pattern continues to block chances for normal robust severe in most of the CONUS and I would wager monsoon in the SW is going to be a dust bowl unless things change. Subjective measure on 2020: I've chased once outside of my home city for the recent NW KS cap bust. None of the other few and far between setups have looked worth budging for, and I was only wrong about the SW KS structure day and maybe the marginal structure day in TX.

Hoping we are not seeing a permanent shift due to climate trends.
 
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