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Oklahomas storm season?

Ray Walker

I was wondering how many of you think this year will be an active year for Oklahoma in general? I know it is imposible to forcast or stake your bet on a certain outcome but honestly how long hase it been since Oklahoma has seen an adverage season? If I remember correcly it has been several at least as far back as 03. Ya we had around 70 tornadoes that year but after the 16th of May were did they all go? No tornadoes in June? That was a first in recorded history and then comes 04 with a few good setups but the majority of the action was up into kansas and nebraska. Then 05 lol we all know how that season turned out NO TORNADOES IN MAY FOR THE STATE!!!!! We all thout June of 04 was weird come on this one topped them all. Then came this past year 06 and honestly most of my chases this past year came with good wall clouds and monsterous hail (particularly April-24-06 up to baseball size). But the tornado count was way down again this past year. If I remember right the tornades on the 9th of May were the only ones reported during the month.

My thoughts are this, things always balance themselves out either with a big (((BANG))) or of normal standards but Oklahoma has never been in a weird severe weather pattern like this every since record keeping began.

So what are your thoughts?
All I can say is (I've heard this from a few people):

1998 - F2 through Moore

(...1 year goes by...)

1999 - F5 through Moore

(...4 years go by...)

2003 - F4 through Moore

(...4 years go by...)

2007 - ???

I've also heard that a tornado hit Moore in 1995 but records seem to disprove that.

With the start of this season being so early this year, it pans out looking like this is going to be an active season everywhere. However, it was active early last year, with the numbers trailing off as the season went on. I'm thinking optimistically that this could be the year for severe weather in Oklahoma, as this is my first year here. If the severe weather pattern holds up for the next month, then there is a strong possibility that this could be a good year for severe weather in Oklahoma.
Yea Ive read in several articles that OKC in general gets hit on an average of once every 5years by a tornado. Does this mean this is OKC's year to be hit again? Who knows but OKC was hit 5/29/04 with that violent HP supercell that formed in extreme western Oklahoma and tracked all the way up toward Tulsa. But I am very confident that Oklahoma will have at least an average season this year.
It quite ironic that this cycle seems to follow an ending ElNino and the beginning of La Nina. It does seem to fall that way, as well as a stronger El Nino, stronger tornadoes, well 1999 atleast.:huh:
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Im more optomistic that the southern plains will have more rotating storms this year since 2004. Last year we saw a lot of activity over toward Missouri and points east early on, that is a negative sign in my opinion for the plain states. This year there already has been a tornado scene by several chasers in late February in the Texas panhandle. Any year there is a tornado in the north Texas, western Oklahoma region early on is a good indicator of at least an average number of events during the course of the spring.
These kinds of threads pop up from time to time. It's useful to remember that what is "normal" isn't equivalent to what is "average." The range of normalcy for a a statistic such as tornado counts in a single state is very broad. You not only have to look at just the statistical mean, but also the variability. For example, the statistics for May tornado count in Oklahoma from 1950 through 2004 shows an average of 22, but a standard deviation of 21! In other words, in any given year it would be just as "normal" to have only 1 tornado report in Oklahoma in May as it would be to have 43 reports!
It's going to be huge!
Seriously though, it can't be any worse than last year.
I really think it is going to be a decent year for the southern plains. I have nothing to go off of except for the gambler's fallacy, but I am optimistic that we are going to have some good numbers and high quality tornadoes this year after having a slow last couple of years for the southern plains.
I hope this will be a year for Southern Plains resurgence.

However, something that may play against this is the early start to the big heat in the Southwest. We are already in the 90s here--15F above our seasonal temps, ahead of a predicted hotter-than-normal summer--and we did not get very much winter precip from El No-show. If we do not get a lower heat pattern in here soon (and you can forget about AZ getting any measureable precip until mid June at the earliest) the increasingly hot Southwestern 850 airmass will support strong capping when advecting into Southern Plains systems.

So here's to SEly surface flow and juicy Sly 850s off the GOM this spring.
increasingly hot Southwestern 850 airmass will support strong capping when advecting into Southern Plains systems.

That may be true, but the heavy snow pack in the Rockies should keep the cap under control for the most part. I expect an average season as well for the Southern Plains. Only time will tell. Who knows maybe it will be above average...just maybe.
Prior to 1999, I believe the last major tornado to hit Moore was in November, 1973.