rdale
EF5
Interesting article in this month's MWR... Seems to indicate current satellite / recon based estimates could be too high?
===
14. A Revised Hurricane Pressure–Wind Model. By: Holland, Greg. Monthly
Weather Review, Sep2008, Vol. 136 Issue 9, p3432-3445, 14p; Abstract:
A new technique for relating central pressure and maximum winds in
tropical cyclones is presented, together with a method of objectively
determining a derivative of the Holland b parameter, b<sub>s</sub>,
which relates directly to surface winds and varies with the pressure
drop into the cyclone center, intensification rate, latitude, and
translation speed. By allowing this b<sub>s</sub> parameter to vary, a
realistic scatter in maximum winds for a given central pressure is
obtained. This provides an improvement over traditional approaches that
provide a unique wind for each central pressure. It is further
recommended that application of the Dvorak satellite-interpretation
technique be changed to enable a direct derivation of central pressure.
The pressure–wind model derived here can then provide the maximum wind
estimates. The recent North Atlantic data archive is shown to be
largely derived from the use of the Dvorak technique, even when
hurricane reconnaissance data are available and Dvorak overestimates
maximum winds in this region for the more intense hurricanes.
Application to the full North Atlantic hurricane archive confirms the
findings by Landsea (1993) of a substantial overestimation of maximum
winds between 1950 and 1980; the Landsea corrections do not completely
remove this bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]; (AN 34388009)
===
14. A Revised Hurricane Pressure–Wind Model. By: Holland, Greg. Monthly
Weather Review, Sep2008, Vol. 136 Issue 9, p3432-3445, 14p; Abstract:
A new technique for relating central pressure and maximum winds in
tropical cyclones is presented, together with a method of objectively
determining a derivative of the Holland b parameter, b<sub>s</sub>,
which relates directly to surface winds and varies with the pressure
drop into the cyclone center, intensification rate, latitude, and
translation speed. By allowing this b<sub>s</sub> parameter to vary, a
realistic scatter in maximum winds for a given central pressure is
obtained. This provides an improvement over traditional approaches that
provide a unique wind for each central pressure. It is further
recommended that application of the Dvorak satellite-interpretation
technique be changed to enable a direct derivation of central pressure.
The pressure–wind model derived here can then provide the maximum wind
estimates. The recent North Atlantic data archive is shown to be
largely derived from the use of the Dvorak technique, even when
hurricane reconnaissance data are available and Dvorak overestimates
maximum winds in this region for the more intense hurricanes.
Application to the full North Atlantic hurricane archive confirms the
findings by Landsea (1993) of a substantial overestimation of maximum
winds between 1950 and 1980; the Landsea corrections do not completely
remove this bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]; (AN 34388009)
