New Chase Case #1

[Danny Neal]

It is 20Z, I am in Great Bend. I am too antsy to just sit still and wait for initiation....So I am driving east on US 56. Will end up in Lyons in thirty minutes to stop at the general store and grab a quick bag of chips.

Bust or not I am sticking it out in Lyons. US 56 and KS 14. Between McPherson and Great Bend.

If I bust today I am on a virtual chasecation so I will pray for another event or two in the coming days? lol

I don't expect tornadoes in KS today, it just doesn't look as conducive as IA and NE do. If I can get a couple supercells that are photogenic and produce monster hail, I will consider it a success

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

I got a late start so I have to stick to NE, I'd be sitting in SC NE somewhere Near Arapahoe, playing the "poke" region in the backed winds and upper 50 dews being pulled back West, cursing the fact that I can't see RUC Mesoanalysis page . I'm still awaiting the arrival of the upper level energy, but am becoming concerned with Cirrus just to my West, I am also VERY nervous that Brian is sitting 250 Miles to my South....

 

[Matthew Fischer]

I'm going to head north from Wakeeney, ks to Taylor, NE. The warm front looks good now. Google maps says it takes 4 hours i'll make that little less...depending on trucks! Just hope night doesn't hurt me!

 

[Doug Mitchell]

Driving north to Concorida, KS

 

[Adam Lucio]

I know I wont reach the stuff in IA, so I may start to head west a bit towards Hays, to get closer to the advancing dryline in case it erupts. It will also put me on a better road grid as well.

 

[Andrew Revering]

I'm re-adjusting after the latest data. I was in Central City, NE.... now I'm moving 86 miles to Norfolk, NE. Enhanced CU around what appears to be a strengthening area of low pressure, along the advancing warm front. Nice surface wind jet axis and moisture axis into this area. I don't know if the boundary/low will still be in the area after my 1hr 45 min drive to Norfolk, but we'll see what happens.

I have a feeling the stuff near Omaha is going to go bonkers in a minute... but I'll stick with my game plan and head to Norfolk.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm moving along 400 to Kingman, hoping for at least 22Z surface analysis map

 

[Sam Kennedy]

Okay 2200z updates.

Surface:

Radar:

Satellite:

Reports:

So are you calling it a bust and going home? or are you going to wait around another few hours and see if anything happens?

 

[Dick McGowan]

Edit: My decision was made based on the 2000z data.

I'm moving east/northeast to Pratt, KS. There's not much convergence along the dryline, and I can see something huge happening in SC/SE Nebraska...so I'll head there to wait till dark if nothing goes, and get hammered at a bar while watching everyone else bag further north! That is one deep surface low!

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Thanks for the update I'm seeing just now a very good setup NE of Grand Islands,Ne (ahead of the low) but it's too late for me and I stay here in Kingman, waiting for the cap to break within 7pm. Edit: I like so much the four sided Norfolk-Columbus-Inman-S.Paul in front of the low.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Okay 2200z updates.

Bugger--my company's firewall is blocking the images Time to head toward the nearest CU and switch to local AM radio, LOL!

 

[Dean Baron]

I will also be hauling @$$ towards Norfolk, NE, coming frmo Grand Island. Depending on how things look I may just continue to the SD border if nothing fires before I get to Norfolk.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Still liking the Norfolk to Yankton area along Hwy 81, looks good a bit to the west as well toward Ainsworth. Guess I'll continue to sit in Norfolk and hope something pops before dark here or slightly to the west. There's a little area of surface convergence just west of Norfolk where 15 kt SErlys are bumping against weaker 5kt winds to the west. Don't like how weak the sfc winds are in my target, but they are backed nicely and should yield enhanced LL helicity in the immediate area. Perhaps a weak tube if I can get a storm.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Im staying put in Hays, Im out of range for anything that is currently going on.

At this point given what I see there is still some potential for things to fire up anywhere from southern NE to southern KS...so Im choosing to put myself in the middle of "the zone" to increase my chances of being not too far should something get going...although my confidence is starting to go down, and Im thinking about beating the crowds to Applebees and getting my seat now.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

I really like my position in Arapahoe now for at least seeing some convection, I have bubbling CU all around and starting to get some TCU to my South (even a little return now showing up) At this point I am getting pissed at the lack of reporting stations in NW KS and I'd really like to see some upperlevel charts, given the recent elevated convection in W NE I'd say the wave is knocking on the door, I'd be drifting East now giving myself an angle at more options (probably would end up near hwy 4 and 281 intersection, though given how fast things are happening I might choose a storm before then; I'm still relatively confident in the SC NE area...