New Chase Case #1

[Brian Stertz]

Now that is gold Dennis....laughed so hard I fell off my chair. Been there and done that before in Beatrice. Well I fear they have dropped the 15% hatched for a 2% and the stubborn cap won't budge. I am going to get some pizza and see if that works to get storms to pop. Seems to work in RL as a nice dinner means that eyes are off the sky and on to the plate....at which time things like to go crazy !!

Happy New Years btw everybody !! Seems like this chase really has rolled over into the New Year (said with sarcastic tone)

 

[Sam Kennedy]

Okay Everybody seems to have made their mind up so I will post the final storm reports:

0200z:

There was a lot of hail through Kansas, and 2 tornadoes touched down in Nebraska, did you catch them? or were you too distracted by your plate?

0300z:

More Hail in Kansas, and a Tornado was reported on the NE-SD border

0400z:

Hail in the Nebraska panhandle, and another Tornado Reported in Nebraska

0500z:

Some more Hail in Nebraska

So, was the Chase worth it? Was it a bust? Did you miss any storms or Tornadoes?

The Date was May 21st 2004

 

[David Wolfson]

No joy for me. Even missed the festivities in Norfolk. Nailed the next day, though http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040522_rpts.html

 

[Dennis Sherrod]

I don't feel too bad. I stayed around Beatrice the whole time waiting and two of the tornados were about 110 - 120 miles north. I may have just made one of those. Now the next day, I would have been a real happy camper if I continued to stay in this area.

 

[Shane Adams]

I always just try to guess what day it is and then do what I did for real.

I didn't even chase May 21, 2004, so you know I busted bahahahahaha.

These exercises are a perfect example of how I cannot garner any info from those upper air charts. They have always looked like scrambled eggs to me; I need pretty colored graphics to be able to discern what is what and where everything is...I guess I just cut my teeth in the internet age so the old-school style of map reading is lost on me.

The only thing I was able to understand was the surface chart, which I based everything off of. It reminded me of May 29, 2004 because of how far east the deep moisture was ahead of the dryline from southern KS southward into OK, so I just played it like I chased that day. If I'd had models to look at, I likely would've stayed home (apparently, since I balked at this day in reality).

Interesting fun...but I think 1-2 day solutions would be best.

 

[scott r currens]

Okay, so this was May 21, 2004.

In real life I sat this one out opting to wait for May 22. May 22nd was one of my all time worst chases. I think I did everything humanly possible to avoid seeing tornadoes in Nebraska. To bad I didn't chase the 21st. The supercell that produced the Norfolk, NE tornadoes initiated at 0z 23-miles north of my 0z Greeley, NE target.

5/21/2004 REPORTS: NE/IA/SD/KS
George Kourounis Norfolk, NE tornado
Amos Magliocco NE of Norfolk, NE
Dan Robinson Norfolk, NE

My bust detector is going off for KS. The easy play from Salina is to drop south to the weak convergence line/CU in central KS. That seems like a low probability play. I don't have to work tomorrow so I'll make a run at E Central Nebraska. 237-miles to Greeley, NE if I don't jump on a supercell before I get there.

Target: Greeley, NE

 

[Danny Neal]

I got some good hailers in Dodge City and beautiful structure from supercells that refused to rotate. I can't complain. I will wake up early the next morning and head N! lol

 

[Dean Baron]

sweet, I would've been in perfect position for either the Norfolk storm or if I had continued north, the storm near Yankton.

 

[Brian Stertz]

5/21/04 ...I did not chase this day in RL and this was when I still lived in Tulsa. This was certainly a day of Iowa and Nebraska tornadoes, but the more significant tornadoes were the Bradgate (F2) and Palo (F3) IA ones. I believe the HP structures on these two tornadic supercells made chasing a bit difficult as I recall from reading reports and seeing video. I kind of busted on this exercise....but were some good hailers out by Dodge. I should always know that my luck with Iowa warm fronts/outflow boundaries is pretty good. But then again I have seen more tornadoes in Kansas than anywhere else so had that on my mind too.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I'm a happy camper. Not only did I catch the two tornadoes by Hadar, NE, but I also witnessed the Hallam wedge the following day. Must have been traumatized by the Hallam event, since I have no memories of either of those days, so I'm just as pleased as can be to realize I was there.

I enjoyed this scenario because it gave me a chance to compare notes with some pretty seasoned chasers. Sam, you excerpted this from Tim's "Forecast Laboratory," right? I'll put in a plug for the Lab. It's a great learning tool. As Shane noted, it skips all the colored graphics, indexes, CAPE, and so forth, and gives you just 12z upper air charts and soundings, and hourly surface obs, radar, and satellite. I've owned the Lab for a couple months, now. The virtue of the thing, for me, is that it's forcing me to learn, think through stuff I otherwise would probably never deal with, and try to project what will have happened with 12z upper-air features by 21z and 00z. What has amazed me is, I've actually been experiencing a fair amount of success! For a fledgling forecaster, the Lab has been a confidence builder.

Bring on the next one, Sam.

Oh...and Happy New Year, everyone.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

I got some good hailers in Dodge City and beautiful structure from supercells that refused to rotate. I can't complain. I will wake up early the next morning and head N! lol

Doesn't a supercell by definition have to rotate?

I know what you're trying to say, just giving you a hard time.

 

[Darren Addy]

Kudos to Sam Kennedy for starting this little exercise. (I'm pleased to see the wide range of chasers participating.) Based upon Sam's experience level however, (as indicated by this thread) I think that a more experienced chaser might provide a more complete/realistic set of information from which to simulate the fine-tuning of the chase day decision-making process for exercises #2 (and beyond?).

Any takers?

 

[Bob Hartig]

Kudos to Sam Kennedy for starting this little exercise. (I'm pleased to see the wide range of chasers participating.) Based upon Sam's experience level however, (as indicated by this thread) I think that a more experienced chaser might provide a more complete/realistic set of information from which to simulate the fine-tuning of the chase day decision-making process for exercises #2 (and beyond?).

Any takers?

Sam's case looks to have been excerpted directly from Tim V's "Forecast Laboratory," and if that's the case, then what you saw is pretty much what you get. The only way I can think of improving the exercise using the Lab would be to provide the full suite of hourly runs--or maybe two-hour runs--of surface obs, radar, and (if it's available) satellite, and then set a time limit for folks to respond, so that a one-day event doesn't get stretched out over a week.

I agree that more detailed info would be extremely helpful and more realistic, but I'm thinking it would take a lot more time to pull together.

 

[Danny Neal]

Doesn't a supercell by definition have to rotate?

I know what you're trying to say, just giving you a hard time.

Lol its a New Years hangover....... I should say "produce!"

 

[Chad Cowan]

Kudos to Sam Kennedy for starting this little exercise. (I'm pleased to see the wide range of chasers participating.) Based upon Sam's experience level however, (as indicated by this thread) I think that a more experienced chaser might provide a more complete/realistic set of information from which to simulate the fine-tuning of the chase day decision-making process for exercises #2 (and beyond?).

Any takers?

I going to put Day # 2 together this afternoon as I'm watching football and nursing this hangover.