New Chase Case #1

[Robert Edmonds]

I know I am a little late to starting on this thread... but I would have been in Liberal, KS... I'd probably still be there waiting. All the stuff in Iowa would be way to far to get to. Since it is a long ways back home, I'll be sticking it out till sundown too, unless there's a target for tomorrow.

 

[Laura Duchesne]

Now I see a cu field with slight instability developing in W KS, but I am not liking the inversion. It is roasting here in Hays. I am hoping for more development further E so going to work my way towards Salina, with options to go north or south later. Sfc winds are much better east of my current position.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Staying put in Norfolk, still think it's the best area for potential tornadoes.

Given the data, here is how I think the day plays out (IF there are more storms).

It appears the dryline in KS has a slight shot of a big hailer developing somewhere between DDC and Salina. Tdd appears too large for tornado potential, so if there are tornadoes, they would likely be after dark when the LCLs come down a bit. I'm going with a 40% chance of large hail reports in KS.

In Nebraska, with a deep cu field already visible, getting a few storms before dark north of I-80 shouldn't be a problem. LCLs look like they'll be a bit on the high side as well with 85/67 reported at Norfolk. Fortuantely, along an just north of the active warm front (just north of Norfolk) temps are in the 70s with dewpoints in the mid 60's...much better for tornado making. I still think the only legit shot for daytime tornadoes (other than the ones already reported in IA) will be in NW IA or Northeast NE. I'm still hedging my bets on something developing in the area of strong ascent present in northeast NE. >65% chance of large hail and wind reports in Northeast NE/NW IA with a 10% chance of tornadoes. NOTE: My percentages are not based on percentages given by SPC and what they represent, I'm basically giving probabilities based on how I feel the day will pan out.

 

[Shane Adams]

Just waiting for the conclusion of this exercise. I virtual chase like I real chase, which means I've been in Medicine Lodge (where I started) eating pizza and drinking beer for four days now. Any chance of getting a solution to this event soon? I need to go to the bathroom.

PS - If you're gonna spout off in public about knowing the date, expect to be PMed about it and don't hold out....that's a chickensh*t move

 

[Bob Hartig]

Been wondering the same thing. In my last post, I planned to head north up US 81, hoping to hit the WF with a little light to spare. I'm now way the heck up in Manitoba and starting to encounter dogsled traffic. Probably should turn around--I think I may have overshot my mark. No beers for me yet, but I did stop and pick up a six-pack of Schmoe's Hopknocker for later. Any of you guys hanging around NE Nebraska, I'll treat you to a cold one if you haven't all gone home by the time I make it back down to the lower 48.

Seriously, I'm sitting at US 81 and US 20 hoping for some fireworks. But the Hopknocker part is true enough, and y'all are welcome to one after the show.

 

[Dennis Sherrod]

I hope something happens soon. There are only 18 streets in Beatrice and I have been pulled over on 17 of them in the last 3 days.
But, I still hanging on here, hoping and wishing.

 

[Dick McGowan]

I found a couple of smoking hot college chicks home for the summer in Pratt and they're interested in chasing, then partying...so I'm gonna wait until sundown for initiation to my west and if nothing goes, I'm going to let these two ladies show me what Pratt has to offer.

 

[Adam Lucio]

I just found out about the party on Dicks facebook and have now abandoned my target and am blasting south towards Pratt. If I see one of these towers develop into something good I may take a detour...

 

[Danny Neal]

You guys are meeting in Pratt and then coming west on 54 to Dodge City riiiiight?

Still holding strong in Dodge City, while noticing some towers starting to pop to my S and SW.....It may be show time!

Party at Umscheids!

 

[Dann Cianca]

Saw Dick's Facebook status. Stopping at the liq right now ...

 

[Jason Boggs]

Yep, I gave up now since it's dark. I'm heading to Pratt with the guys. Dick, you got some competition now buddy!

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Found the girls that washed the chase van back in 2004 in Norfolk and setup a little party for later that evening...(this really happened, local cheerleading squad was having a fundraiser 4 years ago). They all have to be over 18 now.

 

[Joel Wright]

Still sitting in Spearman Texas. Apparently I've found a worm hole since time has basically stood still for over a day.

I'm about to leave TX and head north to the big party in Dodge City...

 

[Bob Hartig]

Nice photos, Scott. Sam, you might just want to roll out the results before folks here get too preoccupied to even give a rip about storms.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Nice photos, Scott. Sam, you might just want to roll out the results before folks here get too preoccupied to even give a rip about storms.

I'm thinking that's already occured!