MY 2006 SUMMER OUTLOOK

[Tim Gonyo]

Here is what I conclude for this summer region by region:

NORTHEAST
Temperature: -1F to -2F departure from normal
Precipitation: 70% to 90% of normal

MID-ATLANTIC
Temperature: 0F to -1F departure from normal
Precipitation: 50% to 70% of normal

SOUTHEAST
Temperature: 0F to -2F departure from normal
Precipitation: 40% to 60% of normal

MIDWEST
Temperature: -2F to -3F departure from normal
Precipitation: 100% to 120% of normal

SOUTHERN US
Temperature: -1F to -2F departure from normal
Precipitation: 80% to 100% of normal

NORTHWEST
Temperature: +1F to +2F departure from normal
Precipitation: 90% to 110% of normal

SOUTHWEST
Temperature: +1F to +2F departure from normal
Precipitation: 90% to 110% of normal

 

[Tim Gonyo]

I did some more digging into data to try to figure out this summer. I believe this May will end up -NAO, and will end up averaging below normal in temperatures for the eastern 2/3rds of the country.

I went back to 1950 and used years with cold May's east of the Rockies: 1954, 1960, 1961, 1963, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1971, 1973, 1976, 1979, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1990, 1997, 2002, 2005. Here is a composite map of that:

The following summer turned out like this:

Now... though -- if we only use cold May's that also had a -NAO: 1954, 1961, 1967, 1968, 1973, 1979, 1990, 1997, 2005. Here is a composite map of that (even colder nationwide):

The following summer turned out like this:

Overall -- the Pacific NW is very warm with setups like this, and the rest of the country is normal to below normal (except the far NE).

I do still think the eastern 2/3rds of the US will be below normal this summer and the western 1/3rd will be above normal... as mentioned in my 2006 summer outlook.