Monsoon Diary

[Joe Zemek]

Lookit all the stormy goodness

Crazy convection breaking out all over... plus a severe warning for a storm just W of Winslow that looks supercellular on radar... might spin one of our 4-5 annual tornadoes...

Not to forecast too much, but the GFS put a huge precip blob over most of the state for Thursday. Fingers crossed for a big 'un...

So nice to have a somewhat cool (upper 80s) midday for a change...

 

[Greg Campbell]

BOOM ( complete with the 10HZ sound you can feel) just about caused me to loose bladder control. It was scarey and a thrill all at once. Unfortunately, the point of impact was not visible.

Staisfied that there was 'enough' :roll: activity to shoot, I started looking for a low spot to set up and the camera. The search for a safe site with a good horizon took 5~10 minutes, and by the time I was ready to go, the storm was past it's peak and fading fast. I'm pretty sure I got one or two pretty branching bolts on film. After another 10 min, the storm was nearly kaput, and the most intense lightning zone has moved still further to the NE. We jumped back in the car and drove another 15 miles (nearly to Reddington) before it became clear that the storm had pooped out on us.

This was by far the best chase I've been on, but I arrived maybe 20 minutes too late. By the time I got into a reasonable position and was shooting, the frustratingly ephemeral storm was already in decay.

There's a big buildup forming SE of town today. Hopefully, it or something closer will develop in the evening hours. Still, I'm afraid the atmosphere isn't as energetic today as yesterday.

-Greg

 

[bill mudd]

Its now august and am waiting for a sign of a big event in arizona - looking into weather maps of mexico its hard to tell 3 days in advance of something big because its mexico weather - any help on this I have to drive from california and would like some help here to save som time and gas
thanks
email [email protected] (if you can accurately predict a 3 day monsoon outlook in arizona)

 

[Joe Zemek]

Monsooncasting

Originally posted by bill mudd
Its now august and am waiting for a sign of a big event in arizona - looking into weather maps of mexico its hard to tell 3 days in advance of something big because its mexico weather - any help on this I have to drive from california and would like some help here to save som time and gas
thanks
email [email protected] (if you can accurately predict a 3 day monsoon outlook in arizona)

Well, for what it's worth, Bill, the 7 day GFS and the MRF have been saying Thursday continuing into Friday of this coming week for heightened AZ activity. Will have to be watched that far out, but it's a start.

 

[David Wolfson]

Bill, the ETA model gives you a pretty good idea of what's coming. You're not usually looking at Mexico, but rather for the "Four Corners" high pressure regime setting up with an easterly-southerly flow throughout low and mid-levels. A low-mid slack flow is ok for popcorn storms as long as the Colorado River surface heat low is well-developed and pulling in good moisture near the surface.

I'm just a long-time observer, and no expert, so take it for what it's worth.

The next three days look dry except for the extreme SE of Arizona and some Mogollon Rim showers. Thereafter the GFS is looking pretty grim, too, with signs of fall in the air. The normal monsoon season is roughly from July 4th to Labor Day. Such as it is/was the monsoon started late and may end early.

 

[bill mudd]

Thanks for that news on the 4 corners and the monsoon effect - someone said that arizona gets 5 tornados a year - if so where would you guys guess that these might possibly locate. I cant seem to find a pattern archive on this.
Again thanks for the quick reply
Bill

 

[David Wolfson]

Bill, from my years living here, my impression is that the best single place to see an Arizona tornado is in the Chino Valley - Prescott area, but a very long-shot. The best time is when the flow regime shifts gears to fall and you get a digging trough over northern Baja that rotates short waves through while there's still a reservoir of tropical moisture.

The current 14-day (8/21) GFS progs are somewhat of an illustration, although the upper features are a little too far west and too-long cut off. That's the general idea, though. You get enough of a moist surface gradient from the south and southeast overlaid by 30kt+ southwesterlies at 500Mb and 50kt+ at 300Mb.

The only warm-season tornado I've ever seen was silhouetted at night in eastern Tucson. It touched ground and did some F0 damage. I've also seen one that probably would qualify as a landspout and a few wintertime cold-air funnels.

 

[Joe Zemek]

AZ tornadoes

Yeah, this is not the place to chase tornadoes; you just kinda have to be lucky. I got a little hyped about the storm with the inflow notch near Winslow the other day b/c I remember a couple TOR reports from the plateau up there, but David's correct in that these generally (if you can apply that word to 5 annual tornadoes!) happen at the end of the monsoon period, although Feb/March storms are also good candidates.

In short, what to chase here = lightning and massive haboobs framed by picturesque desertscapes. Looks like next weekend may yet shape up activity-wise. I'll make it a point to wash my car to improve the odds

 

[bill mudd]

thanks for everyones input regarding arizona monsoon season - being an amatuer here I am trying to get up to speed on my limited knowledge on this new past time. Next weekends ARIZONA storm potential would be great if my wife wasn't looking at surgery on Thursday. I should be able to do some chasing in 3 weeks...when does monsoon season usually wind down?

Question for all here: if you could pick 3 citys of choice to retire to for the purpose of tornado storm activity where would it be (must be west of the mississippi).
Would my choices of #1 Denver #2Kansas City and #3 Amarillo be amongst your pics?

thanks
(hope this is not off topic - if so Im sorry)

 

[David Wolfson]

Bill, I like your idea for a new topic thread in this forum, "Nice Places to Live and Chase"! My wife and I have been thinking about that lately, too. All things equal we like college towns and some trees. The Arizona monsoon ends on average the first week of September, or around Labor Day. I pray all things go well for your wife Thursday.

 

[bill mudd]

Hey Monsooners (if any are still here hanging}
Susan havent heardanymore from you in a while are you stiil out in Arizona? Word is next weekend is gonna be poppin there -
bill

 

[bill mudd]

Thanks David - should have my wife chasing by the end of the month!
looks like southern colorado is going off (not monsoon activity)near the pueblos! man I gotta get out of this southern california the sun is killing me!

 

[Susan Strom]

It was a pleasure hosting the annual Boyce Thompson Arboretum "High Voltage" Lightning Photography show reception yesterday in Superior, AZ. It was a great showing and so much fun to visit with all who came up to one of my favorite Sonoran wild parks. I especially want to thank Tucson visitors like Greg Campbell who drove up from Southern Arizona to be there, that was especially cool. It is nice to meet ST friends in person and I'm glad you found your beautiful Mojave Rattlesnake there on the park to photograph. I think you have earned the name "Snake Charmer" as he didn't even mind you standing there for half hour photographing him at close range.

The 2-hour reception ended up lasting for 4 hours followed by hiking around the shady areas of the park like the Australia Forest (planted in the 1920s), Palm Grove, and Herb and Demonstration Gardens. The park, a veritable oasis at the base of soaring Picketpost Mountain, was alive with many critters, butterflies, reptiles and rare hummingbirds to photograph. The park's array of color and activity was almost more than one could take in. Many desert wild things are lured by the lush environment.

Perfect-looking hard convection started building over the Superstition Range in the afternoon, so I figured the best chance for an early evening chase would be the mountain town of Globe, AZ. Things were looking good and CGs were cracking overhead in Globe around 4pm. After a caffeine stop at Java Junction in Globe's historic district, it was fun to caravan with Greg to the Apachelands after dark to check out remaining CGs in the area. Right after promising Greg who was behind me that "oh, I never get lost" , I took a really funny wrong turn down this mountain dirt road and we had to turn around to get to the highway! Storms turned out to be an afternoon show instead of an evening show, making Apacheland quiet for the nighttime hours. Watching the band "Haywire" (comedians...and I was losing it they were so funny) at Apache Gold was the perfect chance to unwind after a super fun day in the Superstitions. I returned to the Valley and started getting weary behind the wheel, so stopped for coffee and breakfast at a Waffle House in Apache Junction and listened to the server and cook's wild weather stories. Sunrise was beautiful over the Lost Dutchman area. I got home at sun-up exhausted but pleased with a super fun day. I will be hosting another lightning show at a different wild park this winter. I'm looking forward to it already!

Storm activity is expected to pick up again starting Thursday. The high is heading back to the Four Corners. Someone mentioned the Monsoon may end early? I actually got some really cool stuff last year in mid- to late- Sept. Typically, there should be about a month of Monsoon remaining... I'm ready

 

[Susan Strom]

Morgan wrote:

think even the most barren desert floor is beautiful.

It is!! One of the most beautiful, esp on the large scale (mountains & valleys) and on the small scale (plants & animals)

As for the morning news, I anchored one for two years.

Kudos! It is rather amazing how they (anchors) pull it off every morning at that hour, like smooth sailing. But they do...

 

[Greg Campbell]

Originally posted by Susan Strom
It was a pleasure hosting the annual Boyce Thompson Arboretum \"High Voltage\" Lightning Photography show reception yesterday in Superior, AZ. It was a great showing and so much fun to visit with all who came up to one of my favorite Sonoran wild parks. I especially want to thank Tucson visitors like Greg Campbell who drove up from Southern Arizona....I think you have earned the name \"Snake Charmer\" as he

Susan found a beautiful Mojave Green Rattler during a hike after the presentation.

didn't even mind you standing there for half hour photographing him at close range.

Must be my beady eyes... :cyclopsani:

The 2-hour reception ended up lasting for 4 hours followed by hiking around the shady areas of the park like the Australia Forest (planted in the 1920s), Palm Grove, and Herb and Demonstration Gardens. The park, a veritable oasis at the base of soaring Picketpost Mountain, was alive with many critters, butterflies, reptiles and rare hummingbirds to photograph. The park's array of color and activity was almost more than one could take in. Many desert wild things are lured by the lush environment.

Susan and Cathy did an awesome job at the reception. They had around 40 COOL picture on display, and patiently answered any and all questions fielded by the mob. The arboretum is an insanely pretty place, and I saw more gorgeous critters in one day than I usualy see in a month. Acre-for-acre, it is nicer than any just about an other place I've seen. Call it a National Park and be done with it!

Perfect-looking hard convection started building over the Superstition Range in the afternoon, so I figured the best chance for an early evening chase would be the mountain town of Globe, AZ. Things were looking good and CGs were cracking overhead in Globe around 4pm. After a caffeine stop at Java Junction in Globe's historic district, it was fun to caravan with Greg to the Apachelands after dark to check out remaining CGs in the area. Right after promising Greg who was behind me that \"oh, I never get lost\" , I took a really funny...

Dear, you have NO idea.... :lol: :lol: It was all I could do to stay on the road.

wrong turn down this mountain dirt road and we had to turn around to get to the highway!

Don't forget the rat-in-a-maze tour of Globe you subsequently led us on! Since she'd appropriated MY map, and was using it to navigate, all this was all MY fault, natch.
When I left Tucson, I was anticipated meetting Susan, drooling over her pictures, and admiring the mountain scenery en passant. Never in my wildest dreams did I anticipate listening to a Barry Williams look alike sing "Ice-Ice-Baby....!" :headbang: in an Apache casino at minight.

Storm activity is expected to pick up again starting Thursday. The high is heading back to the Four Corners. Someone mentioned the Monsoon may end early? I actually got some really cool stuff last year in mid- to late- Sept. Typically, there should be about a month of Monsoon remaining... I'm ready

This evening I gave halfhearted chase to a storm out towards Kitt Peak. By the time I got out of town, it was clear that the storm was already out of gas. Time for one of your 'little talks' with the weatherman.

-Greg