Models are showing a Chasers worst Fears

[Kevin Crawmer]

Chris, here is a thread about NW Flow events that includes some good research articles. Orientation of the storm is different and hodos look weird, but you will get the jist of it. They can and will offer all forms of severe weather. I was hoping an active pattern would coincide with my time off, so we will see. I might be able to bump it back a week if needed.


http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=19067

 

[Chris Hayes]

Thanks for the link, Kevim. I'm starting to be inclined to bump mine back a week as well. I need to work on my tan, but dont want that to be all I do. I would take northwest flow night-time MCSs. It would provide me with more lightning photo ops, but dont want that to be it. 2008 I saw 7-9 tornadoes and got over 130 lightning pics.

 

[Warren Faidley]

This discussion ALWAYS appears right after a busy period of chasing ends, and especially when the models start wimping out. I don't see any indication of a true, prolonged "death ridge" that stops all severe convection, e.g., a massive upper level High pressure of "around 594dkm centered smack dab over the entire region, with 700 mb temps of at least 14C, and 500 mb temps of warmer than -5C." That for example and by history has *smushed* everything and is a true "death ridge."

We are not always going to have the moderate or high risk days with off the scale conditions. After doing this for over 20 years, it will drive you mad if you are sitting out here hoping for multiple high end days every week.

Some of the best tornadoes I have photographed were on slight-risk or no-risk days that were upgraded. Slight risk, "ridged" or seemingly poor days often involve isolated storms, slightly elevated bases resulting in longer tornadoes, slower moving storms, less chasers, better lightning, etc. There are cap busters, landspouts, NW flow events and the occasional prize just for hanging out... e.g, (Pampa LP, May 28, 1994 = Twister poster). If the DP's are present, and any S / SE surface winds, you have to always be alert, especially in the west with difficult to forecast energy moving out of Mexico and upsloping / orographic lifting off the CO and NM mountains.

I see some promise tomorrow and Saturday. (Slight Risk Day 2-3 SPC) and over the weekend into next week: (Per KOUN discussion):

ALL MODELS SIMILAR IN UPPER FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MEAN RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS MAY BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY...BUT WITH RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE (ESPECIALLY WEST) TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. (end)

We might not have super outbreaks, but I think there will be storms for those willing to take the chance until the overall pattern changes.

W.

 

[Mark Blue]

The models seem to go back and forth when a guy is looking out 10 days and beyond. From what I can tell (mostly based on the ECMWF), the trough nosing it's way on to the west coast towards the end of next week looks okay to me and the CPC is talking about the central and northern plains in their 8-14 day outlook, so I still have hope for our chasecation. The only thing I wish I would have done was get my passport in case something happens north of the border, but I goofed up and let time slip away so I'll be chasing the good old USA this time around. There is also talk of a trough in the east, so maybe we'll have to drive a long ways if that turns out to be the place to chase. For now I'm going to just hold out hope that this year will definitely be better than last.

Thanks to Warren for his insight as it makes total sense to me. Encouraging words from a seasoned chaser always help to keep my spirits up.

 

[Jennifer Bankier]

Short Memories

People seem to have short memories of previous discussions on this topic.

I went chasing with Tempest Tours from April 16 to April 27, without my
own computer. The last discussions I was able to see before I left were
very pessimistic both about the immediate future and the entire season.

We then had a week of very lively weather and my tour group saw
at least five tornadoes. (I say at least because there were a couple
of things we weren't sure about.)

There has been another outbreak after that. Yet now people are back to pessimism again.

 

[Chris Hayes]

Warren is right. You dont need a high risk day. High risk days can be very rewarding or some of the most dicouraging chases you'll ever be on. June 4, 2005 in eastern Kansas is a prime example of that for me! One of the best chase days for me was May 22, 2007, a slight risk day. Saw 2 supercells, a classic and an LP and one tornado. Not to mention there are probably countless cases past marginal or slight risk days that turned out great. While discouraged about the next week or maybe 2 I'm not saying it's over.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

The models are back to showing a trough all through next weekend (not this weekend, the one after) starting wednesday.

 

[Brandon Fesler]

Some of the best tornadoes I have photographed were on slight-risk or no-risk days that were upgraded.

Indeed. 3 May 1999 comes to mind. Just the night before it looked pretty slim for severe chances... and we all know how it ended up.

 

[Brian Jalas]

Great job David!
Your video with the Star Wars clips is good enough to be worthy of a George Lucas lawsuit!!!

 

[Dave Marshall]

As would be expected when one model starts smoking crack, it's coming down off it's high and showing a much more reasonable, seasonable, and likely pattern that will emphasize the dry line until the 20th or so when a new low seems to move in out of the Pacific. Amarillo and OKC are both mentioning this shift in the pattern next week. It's still going to be a bit quiet for this time of year, but I'm sitting in OKC, 1200 miles from home, and feeling fine about my chase-cation timing.

 

[Bill Hark]

Amazing how one's hopes change by the cycles of model output. I really like the new operational GFS that came out for 00Z May 16th with a nice trough coming out by the upcoming weekend, maybe some possibilities as early as Friday May 21st in eastern Colorado and shifting eastward for a couple of days. Still awaiting the latest 00Z ECMWF. The previous one shows the trough too westerly.

Bill Hark

 

[jamesmseitz]

I just started looking at that.... Saturday and Sunday look fairly Good. We will see what happens but everything seems to be there

 

[Jason Persoff]

I am ripping my hair out a bit in frustration since I get out on the Plains on 5/27. It appears, though I'm trying not to take it personally, that I will arrive coincident with the omega block. And here I thought 2005 and 2009 were just flukes for me...but no...I apologize to all. It appears to be my fault.