Lurkers, Target Area, memberships, and Stormtrack

[Mikey Gribble]

I think there is certainly justification for allowing the forecast threads to be public. Why wouldn't we allow nonmembers to view them? I don't really care who is reading my forecast and I can't imagine anybody being afraid that somebody will "steal their target" or they wouldn't be posting a forecast on here to begin with. If it were my call I'd allow anybody access, but only members get posting rights.
When I started off chasing I didn't know anybody that chased. I had to buy books and start reading. Luckily I did have access to the FCST threads back then. You can learn a lot from watching other people have a back and forth forecast discussion in the days leading up to a severe weather event. Why would we want to keep nonmembers from looking at that? Even if somebody isn't even interested in chasing, what difference does it make. They have some genuine interest in the the forecast or they wouldn't be coming here.
Anway, I don't see any problem with allowing access to nonmembers. I'd make all the threads free access except Bar and Grill. If people are just reading and not posting I don't see any harm in allowing better access to it.

 

[Elinor McLennon]

It's the posting that's upsetting me. I saw the most childish posts in the fcst area the other day. They may have been deleted, I couldn't find them. I did find these classics:

ill be out there, headed across I-70 in MO, then up to Lincoln i am hopeful

I am sitting at my house on the NE side of Lincoln watching the storms explode! Got a good vantage point right now- we will see how it goes.

The other posts I saw made these seem intelligent. I was shocked to see them on the forum. i would expect to be kicked off of ST or severely scorned.
I know my join date says 2008 but I was on here reading and learning since 2006. I do NOT post in the fcst forum because I do not have the knowledge yet. But, I am a spotter for my community and a chaser for hobby and thanks to this site I have learned so much valuable information to make me a better spotter. I would be lost if I could not access portions of this site because I choose to learn rather than to add unnecessary noise to some of the forums.
You can't avoid leeches and lurkers BUT you can remove them for making ridiculous forecasting posts. When you actually ask where to go and chase a storm in a forecast forum that should have been an automatic ban!
There are several sites that show exact locations of chasers thanks to live streaming and gps. So, people can always find a site to give them a target area and we can't control the crowds out in the field. that's the nature of the beast especially when we have reality storm chasing shows on tv.
I don't know any easy answers but I would not want to miss out on such an awesome learning experience. The ones of you who post forecasts on here do an awesome job and have taught me so much. Thank you and good luck to Tim and the Mods on how to handle this.

 

[weskranz]

I completely see the issue....but separating those folks who are honestly interested in learning from forecasts and those who just want a place to drive to will be vital to get right. This forum is a huge value to those who are in this for educational purposes. I know I've learned a tremendous amount and really appreciate the knowledge sharing.

Wes

 

[MatthewCarman]

You don't have a storm chaser discussion board without discussion...

I am not referring to the site. I am referring to the NOW threads. It used to be if people posted discussion that did not have to do with the current event or cluttered up the thread it would be removed to a DISC thread. I also saw a report in a NOW thread recently with pictures of a tornado. The report was after the tornado was over and it was about the persons chase. I have nothing against this person doing that. I am just wondering if this is allowed now.

 

[Adam Lucio]

There is an educational section for people to learn about the forecasting. For those who don't chase, not being able to view the target area shouldn't be an issue then. Its not impossible to learn without the target area. I say lock it.

Perhaps a system can be devised where if a new member wants to post they have to ask a mod for permission, and if they can post a valid forecast their access can stay...i dunno, its late im tired and starting to talk outa my rear end...but my opinion is it should be locked/blocked from public etc etc

 

[Jason Blum]

I don't post often, but for what it's worth, here is my perspective:

Although I am new to chasing (x3 years) I am anything but a leecher. I am partnered with an experienced chaser, and I have an enormous passion for learning. When I first read Tim's "Storm Chaser Handbook," and "Forecasting Handbook," I immediately took his advice and found an old copy of the now out-of-print, "Science and Wonders of the Atmosphere", and read it. I also purchased and read literally a pile of other met books. I have every one of Vasquez's books, including legitimate copies of his software. I have read (and copied by hand to a notebook) every one of Haby's Hints. I interact with some local meteorologists and chasers almost daily, and listen to everything they have to say. I ordered "Severe Storm Forecasting," a couple of months ago, and have already read it twice... I subscribe to F5Data, Allisonhouse, and I own a copy of both GRLevel 3 and Level 2: Analyst Addition. I may not have many posts, but this is much more than merely a passing interest or a thrill-ride for me! I've even looked into going back to school to formally study meteorology, but I'm a 38 year-old paramedic with a family and bills, so sadly that just isn't going to happen...

I've only been on five chases so far, but I have had a very high success rate (four tornadoes in those five chases) and I have continually upgraded our equipment and software. (For the record, my partner has chased for about 15 years... so I'm strictly speaking from my own perspective)

Now to my point: although I actually feel as if I'm becoming fairly good at forecasting, I don't post my own thoughts here because I'm not yet confident enough in my own forecasting abilities and I fear that many here would eat me alive. I've started having pretty good success with my forecasts, but I don't yet feel that I'm competent enough to stand with some of the greats here (many of my mistakes are matters of terminology or semantics); and while we have never piggybacked off any of the forecasts here and we actually take pride on doing our best to avoid the convergences, sometimes, such as this past week, the forecasts are just so obvious that convergences are unavoidable.

Especially when trying to NOWcast on the fly, it's easy to overlook an important but subtle feature, and by reviewing the NOW/forecast posts here during our chase, we can sometimes gain some important insight which we have overlooked. I'm most definitely not talking about piggybacking but merely fact-checking ourselves and looking for insight from others which may cause us to re-evaluate our own forecasts. (An all-important distinction!)

I guess my point is that I do hope you will base your decisions as to who does or doesn't have access to the forecasting forum on more than simply the number of posts that one has to his name, or how often they've contributed. There are "lurkers" such as myself who are part of a more experienced chase team, and who absolutely strive to avoid piggybacking (who doesn't want to get a unique view of a storm which few others managed to catch?!), yet who rely on the fore/NOWcast discussions to stimulate our own thinking so that we can be better assured that we didn't overlook anything.

Quite frankly, (and I don't mean to diminish the importance or prominence of these forums in any way) but in terms of sheer numbers, I would guess that the iPhone is probably responsible for far more yahoos than the forums here are. The number of people who actually base their chases on these forecast discussions are, IMHO, likely a statistical insignificance compared to people running around with RadarScope or demo copies of GRLevel 3.

At the very least, I would appeal to the admins to consider grandfathering in those who are already registered and have access to the forums. Many of us probably could contribute more (and will in the near future, as we become more confident in our knowledge) but don't simply out of respect.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I noticed reports and discusion being posted in the NOW threads. I thought the now threads were suposed to be about the ongoing weather?

They are; NOW threads can contain discussion of ongoing weather +/- about half an hour. However, during many chasing events, some of the moderators may be out in the field as well. In addition, we do occasionally "miss" noncompliant posts As always, we encourage users to use the "report this post" feature to bring these posts to our attention. We may not always be able to remove such posts within minutes (again, if we're chasing, or not on ST at the moment), but we always examine reported posts (which is not to say that we always take action on a reported post, since we sometimes see less of a problem with a reported post than did the member who reported it).

 

[Jennifer Palmer]

I am a newer ST member and I do not post very often here. Why do I come to Stormtrack? Because this forum is the best place to learn about chasing! I paid my $5 to become a member mostly because this place is such an excellent resource and less because I wanted to post on the boards. I had been a lurker for years.

I liked Elinor's idea about booting people who post nonsense under forecasting. Maybe you could give people one warning, and then boot them if the behavior continues. I would be willing to pay extra to view the forecasting threads, simply because I like to make my own forecast, see other forecasts, and then try to figure out why. It has been a huge help in my learning.

 

[Eric Treece]

I think since it seems numerous people watch the forecast/nowcast boards, a simple solution would be to make them available AFTER that chase day. That way they have access to what we are talking about and can see the strategies we have used to make or break our chases. If you are serious about the chase strategy and learning from this board, formulate your own forecast........see how your forecast plays out that day, then go into the forecast discussion archive and learn from what the discussion that day offered. Just my opinion FWIW. That way you aren't closing off a vital source for learning about what goes into the chase.

 

[Aaron Strum]

Was I wrong thinking the intent was for people who had no interest in posting be charged the 5 dollars per year and those of us who have an interest in posting (given not frequency but again it's because of life for some of us) would be for free? I'm just wondering and I am now getting the impression that I was wrong.

 

[Joe Ireton]

I think it'd be a shame to lock out the forecast thread to those who don't post in it. Banning people who post garbage in it is reasonable. Banning people who know that they shouldn't post in there isn't.

Anybody ever think there are more chasers out there because of the natural evolution of it and technology? More access to data and public awareness, not to mention the thousands of people who could care less before but become affected or intrigued or amazed by storms after a big outbreak such as the other day?

I guess what the right thing to do would depend on why people post forecasts anyways? To show possibly how good their forecasting skills are so if they are right it's a big ego stroke? Or is it to inform people so they know where the danger is? So people can be prepared or learn? Or is it to share with others with the same passion but not the same forecasting skills so they can get out and enjoy a better chance to see what they've been hoping for like some good structure or a tornado?

Not everyone pulled over on the side of the road during severe weather are lurkers from stormtrack, and i find it childish for a chaser with good forecasting skills to want to keep a potential hot spot for severe weather to themselves or only others who know the same thing. Think if the stormtrack forecasts are not made public you don't have to pay attention for other motorists or chasers anymore?

If somebody's forecast could save a life or lives somehow IMO the more people who see it the better.

I would suggest everyone loking past the tip of their own nose, take things on a case by case basis as far as who gets banned, worry about bad posts instead of who reads the good ones.

 

[Brandon Goforth]

I think the idea of making them publicly available AFTER the chase day is the best option by far. Then everyone would still have them there to learn and compare to their own forecast, which would work out well for everyone but the target leachers. I find it amusing that pretty much the only people that want to leave it as is are the new users...who would've ever guessed?!

Regarding the previous post of forecasts here saving lives, that's a bit ridiculous cause the SPC and local NWS offices are already doing an excellent job providing the public with the information they need to be weather aware, and that's why they're there. Not to mention the countless other available sources for weather awareness. This is a site for storm chasers, not a site for the general public to come find out if there's a chance of severe weather in their area today. It just doesn't make a lot of sense.

Anyways, I agree with many others that closing down the forecast area and making it publicly available AFTER the event is the best way to go.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

I wouldn't have much of a problem with tightening it up some. I mean, I am hardly a veteran chaser, but when I post in a FCST thread with my target and chase plan, that is mainly intended not for just anyone, but for the eyes of other chasers, with different opinions and ideas being put forth, allowing for discussion. There is a reason why I don't put my forecasts and targets on my Facebook page, but I do on here.

 

[rdale]

Does anyone have evidence of n00b's reading the forecast thread and converging on a point that they otherwise would not have, and interrupting a chase? That seems to be the big concern, but is it really happening to that level?

 

[Steve Polley]

Does anyone have evidence of n00b's reading the forecast thread and converging on a point that they otherwise would not have, and interrupting a chase? That seems to be the big concern, but is it really happening to that level?

Your right. There is no real proof that is happening. The only real way to know for sure would be to hide the target area from public view and look at it again in a year and see if the "perception of leechers" had changed. I personally dont post much or view the target area anyway so to me it is ok really either way. I think that things like twitter, facebook and such have changed how forecasts are discussed these day.