Long range model speculation

[Adam Lucio]

Agreed Connor. My critics think I am trying to zero in on a target area by checking the GFS that far out. People need to get that out of their heads. At that far out you look for patterns...its the PATTERN its showing that I like...not the individual setup at this point.

If the PATTERN verifies, there will be a setup/s somewhere that will have some chase opportunities with it...and thats all Im looking for at this point, and I like what I see.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

Agreed Connor. My critics think I am trying to zero in on a target area by checking the GFS that far out. People need to get that out of their heads. At that far out you look for patterns...its the PATTERN its showing that I like...not the individual setup at this point.

If the PATTERN verifies, there will be a setup/s somewhere that will have some chase opportunities with it...and thats all Im looking for at this point, and I like what I see.

March 31st through April 3-4 looks really good to me as well. Like you mentioned it's the pattern that needs to be looked at this far in advance not individual days. Also, like you mentioned if this pattern verifies there will be at least 1-2 good chase days for sure.

 

[Derek Weston]

Agreed Connor. My critics think I am trying to zero in on a target area by checking the GFS that far out. People need to get that out of their heads. At that far out you look for patterns...its the PATTERN its showing that I like...not the individual setup at this point.

If the PATTERN verifies, there will be a setup/s somewhere that will have some chase opportunities with it...and thats all Im looking for at this point, and I like what I see.

so you're saying SW OK is going to get slammed April 1?

Really though, I do the same thing and think plenty of others do. Fun to do this time of year, waiting for things to kick off. Lettuce all pray for a nice fetch from the GOM now...

 

[jamesmseitz]

Agreed Connor. My critics think I am trying to zero in on a target area by checking the GFS that far out. People need to get that out of their heads. At that far out you look for patterns...its the PATTERN its showing that I like...not the individual setup at this point.

If the PATTERN verifies, there will be a setup/s somewhere that will have some chase opportunities with it...and thats all Im looking for at this point, and I like what I see.

You can not zero in a point with GFS 10 days out.... Like you i use it to see what is coming. GFS is not alway right but is does show pattern changes.... exspecially big ones. i do not know where yet but I am planning on being out, Set my schedule and getting the Theat Net turned on soon. GFS has been to consistant showing something in the time frame to ignore it..... Sure hope it pans out

The last Run the low doesn't track as far south as I would like..... 1 run.....lets wait and see

 

[Mark Blue]

Comparing the 500 mb charts for both the GFS and ECMWF at the same model initialization time (12Z 03/22/10) and forecast hour down the road (04/01/10 12Z) shows some awesome consistency with the western trough located in nearly the same location for both model solutions. Hopefully these links will take you to the aforementioned charts and/or times. I do believe the links for the ECMWF are dynamic and change with time, but otherwise they'll at least be valid for a few hours.

GFS: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...nding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

ECMWF: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forec...merica!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010032212!!/

 

[jamesmseitz]

Wow the last 2 runs have been a bit of a downer for me.... I would lke to see the trough dig more south like the runs before. I still have a gut about this one.... mabey because of the consistancy of the runs showing something worthy of chasing. I still have the days blocked off.... but to be truthful as well, if I do not go they could fill right back up..... rather Chase if there is a choice

 

[Brett Roberts]

Comparing the 500 mb charts for both the GFS and ECMWF at the same model initialization time (12Z 03/22/10) and forecast hour down the road (04/01/10 12Z) shows some awesome consistency with the western trough located in nearly the same location for both model solutions. Hopefully these links will take you to the aforementioned charts and/or times. I do believe the links for the ECMWF are dynamic and change with time, but otherwise they'll at least be valid for a few hours.

GFS: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...nding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

ECMWF: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010032212!!/

The ECMWF looks really nice, as it doesn't allow the downstream trough to amplify and linger over New England for nearly as long as the GFS. I'd be skeptical of adequate moisture return if the GFS verifies. Unfortunately, it looks like most of the GFS ensemble members show a similar scenario. Hopefully we'll see a trend towards the Euro, even though it seems the seasonal trend so far is for every system to amplify like mad over the eastern US.

 

[Mark Blue]

The ECMWF looks really nice, as it doesn't allow the downstream trough to amplify and linger over New England for nearly as long as the GFS. I'd be skeptical of adequate moisture return if the GFS verifies. Unfortunately, it looks like most of the GFS ensemble members show a similar scenario. Hopefully we'll see a trend towards the Euro, even though it seems the seasonal trend so far is for every system to amplify like mad over the eastern US.

You're definitely on to something Brett and you have a keen eye. I enjoy having someone with your credentials chiming in and shedding light on the subject. I was glancing at the downstream trough last night when I posted, but didn't pay as close attention to it until you pointed it out. The GFS is definitely indicating a more "amplified" trough on the east coast with the 12Z run today, whereas the ECMWF is indicating what you mentioned, it's kicking further to the east and is less amplified. I also see the ECMWF has the base of the western trough progressing much slower now than the GFS, so it's slowing it down to an extent. This would make April 2nd the more attractive chase day IMO. I see another low upstream by the Bering Islands waiting in the wings, which gives me hope for a pattern change after all. All in all I'm still hopeful that this will be the first big event of the season, but only time will tell! Here are the links for today's runs I mentioned above.

GFS

http://tinyurl.com/yklf7yq

ECMWF

http://tinyurl.com/ykw7r4w

 

[jamesmseitz]

The thing that has be bothered by the last few run is the lack of Directional shear.... It looks like it is all Directional and mabey a little bit undirectional at the surface....a bit. Every day ,at least it seems to me, those end up being hyped up but no shows in reality.... I.E. the high Risk day last year in OK in April. Please tell me if I am wrong... what to learn and get better at this. It looks Marginal now, It used to look real good but i think GFS has played the first April Fools joke on me and I bit.

 

[Adam Lucio]

The thing that has be bothered by the last few run is the lack of Directional shear.... It looks like it is all Directional and mabey a little bit undirectional at the surface....a bit.

Im a bit confused by your statement but directional shear is a good thing. Unidirectional will get you more squall lines and less supercells.

As far as the recent runs goes, both GFS and euro are still showing a troughing pattern setting up. I still like what I see and am glad there are no dreamy setups showing up just yet because if it shows the perfect setup 300+ hrs out then it can only get worse with each run. A good pattern = chasing somewhere and thats what Im seeing still.

 

[jamesmseitz]

Sorry I did mis speak about the type of shears Directional is good Non is not so good.... Sorry about that.... What about the main energy not being able to tap the gulf.... it looks like a Trailing front will kick up something in TX OK area but away from the trough and the Jet. Still chasable I know but am I right in that assetment Trying to learn.... Thank you.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I'm just going to copy and paste part of my forecast from my blog (too lazy to talk now). Basically I think this is the first setup that has got my attention this year. Obviously it is way too far out, but I like what I've seen with today's GFS. I haven't been paying close attention over previous runs and I didn't look beyond day 7 (useless anyway), so take it for what it's worth. Here is the copy and paste from my blog...

I am a little more hopeful for next week. Some time around Tuesday of next week a large neutrally tilted trough should move slowly on shore. With a good break between troughs and the high amplitude of the approaching trough, there should be better conditions for moisture advection ahead of this next system. It is still too early to get into details and I only looked at the GFS on RAP, which only goes out 7 days, but there is a very strong jet streak that is forecast to enter the back side of the trough as it moves on shore which should help to deepen it and take on a negative tilt as it enters the plains. Like I said it is way too early to tell, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this is our first decent tornado setup this year.
I will try and get a new forecast posted tomorrow.

 

[Adam Penney]

The most recent runs of the GFS continue to be consistent in its depiction of a lack of significant moisture return and subsequent CAPE values ahead of the major trough plowing into the plains late next week.

Certainly, with the dynamics that are progged to be in place, some of this could be overcome. I am not concerned with the CAPE, as this far out, its impossible for the models to have any sort of firm grip on instability values.

We still have about a weeks worth of time from now for the moisture progs to improve, but the GFS has certainly been consistent in its lack of moisture return. I am aware the ECMWF has shown a little more hope.

With the first possible chase day for this system now close to within "spitting" distance, the only thing keeping this from a siginificant outbreak, IMO, is the lack of moisture return. Perhaps the model progs will only get better from here on out.

 

[Brett Roberts]

It seems like the main reason for poor moisture return on the GFS is that pesky low that forms along the central Gulf coast mid-late next week, resulting in northerly flow over the GOM leading up to the trough's arrival. The 12z ECMWF is slower to move the trough into the Rockies, and has a nice big ridge dominating the entire eastern half of the country by the time that happens, which I assume means better moisture (though we can only guess without access to the moisture variables). In fact, I dare say the 500 mb pattern for next Friday-Saturday looks *somewhat* reminiscent of a couple nice late March 2007 events on this particular run.

 

[John Sickels]

Not gonna worry about moisture return at this point. I just like the fact that

1) it is going to warm up in the Midwest for a few days
2) a big trough will eventually come through.

Plenty of time for the details to emerge. Even if we just get some thunder around here I'll be happy.