Long range model speculation

[Michael O'Keeffe]

That system at the very end of the GFS model run has been showing up since the last frame at 384hr and I wouldn't be surprised if it disappears than reappears about a week out as what usually happens with these setups. I think we will see about 1-2 more cold front here in the next 7-10 days before we establish a real spring pattern and the Gulf really begins to heat up.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

That system at the very end of the GFS model run has been showing up since the last frame at 384hr and I wouldn't be surprised if it disappears than reappears about a week out as what usually happens with these setups. I think we will see about 1-2 more cold front here in the next 7-10 days before we establish a real spring pattern and the Gulf really begins to heat up.

I agree Michael. That system at the very end looks good. I too have noticed that they will disappear and show back up. We will have two cold fronts in a 4-5 day span coming up. The first one is Friday/Saturday and another one the middle of next week. Hopefully the first week of April or so will see the Gulf open up and establish some nice moisture into TX, OK and KS for good.

 

[jamesmseitz]

The Gulf finally seems to be opening its gates a bit. GFS does waffle alot but that is long range forcasting for ya..... The first week in April does have my attention though. hope its true. See you guys....and gals out there this year

 

[Warren Faidley]

An interesting footnote to the discussion.... the CPC's new 90 day forecast issued today, (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/), has shifted the "above average" precipitation much further north than the previous outlook.

I guess one could read a multitude of sorcery into the shift, depending on what precipitation mode a chaser is seeking. However, I do wonder if the shift is predicting dry-slotting further south as the El Nino systems pull north with the main mode of storms moving off the Rockies.

None the less, too far out to be of concern, but an interesting year one way or another. At least it's not below average forecasts in the rest of the region, which I **think** were floating around last year at this time.

W.

 

[Justin Mashburn]

GFS

I agree that most of the upcoming systems will be starved for moisture. I've been looking at tonights GFS model runs....I don't see anything of interest until April 2nd! I know that this is a long way away but it gives us something to watch out for!! The GFS shows 60+ Td's, 70+ surface temps, and nice cape values from Texas to Nebraska!! We will have to wait and see!

 

[Connor McCrorey]

The GFS is definitely showing some good possibilities in the plains for the last few days of March leading into the first few days of April. I'm not too worried about this season yet

 

[Scott Olson]

It really is a beautiful large and deep upper trough. Lots can and will change with a forecast that far out but it's something to certainly watch possibly around the April 2/3 timeframe.

Certainly even the GEFS is hinting that a large trough is going to develop in the 300+ hr timeframe and provide the first real oppurtunity to call in some advection.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Tonights 0z run has party time written all over it. WOW. I wont wishcast anymore than just saying I hope it verifies.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Tonights 0z run has party time written all over it. WOW. I wont wishcast anymore than just saying I hope it verifies.

I was just looking over the GooFuS myself and couldn't help but smile at the solutions for the first few days of April. Its nice to see some hope on the horizon. Now the real question....is this realistic?

 

[Mark Blue]

The 06Z run of the GFS still has the April 2nd time frame holding strong with a negative tilt now appearing with insane upper air divergence across the southern and central plains. This will definitely warrant watching in the coming days. Hopefully the run to run consistency will begin to shore up as time progresses. The timing couldn't be better since April 2nd and 3rd fall on a Friday and Saturday. Still a long ways off but worth watching.

 

[Brett Roberts]

I'm pleased to see today's 12z ECMWF and GFS ensembles supporting the op GFS idea of a significant wrn US trough taking shape in the March 31-April 2 timeframe.

ECMWF H+240: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forec...op!od!oper!public_plots!2010032112!!chart.gif

GFS ens mean H+276: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gens/12/images/gens_50m_276m.gif

For the first time this season, the synoptic pattern leading up to the potential event suggests there could be decent Gulf moisture return. Even shaving 5-7°F off the Td's shown on the past few GFS runs would make me pretty happy, at this point.

 

[Michael Riedl]

April Second looks beautiful with a capital B so far.....Lets hope it stays that way. Widespread temps in the 70's and 80's accross the region with a nice moist S/SE flow.. So far its looking like a fairly good close to home chase in KS.

 

[jamesmseitz]

I have been watching this too. I am thinking I am turning on the Mobile Theat net and Start the Drive from MN on the 30th. GFS is not always right about everything but there is concistancy, and the other models are now supporting it as well. This one Warrants the Drive I think..... I also hope too

 

[Adam Penney]

What a waste this would be. Im praying for something better than this.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...nding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false


http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...nding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

 

[Connor McCrorey]

What a waste this would be. Im praying for something better than this.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...nding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false


http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...nding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

I'm extremely happy that the GFS is showing that. I rarely look at anything other than the 500mb pattern that far out, and occasionally I take a look at the general condition of the Gulf. So with that trough and plenty of time for moisture/instability to increase, I'm pleased