Long range model speculation

[Chris Wilburn]

The last few runs or so of the GFS want to bring an active period to the plains around the 22nd of March. I was just curious if anybody else had any thoughts on this? Since the 22nd is now only eight days away it doesn't seem too far fetched that it could pan out. The GFS nailed this last system within a day or so 10 days out i believe. The spaghetti plots are kind of split on bringing a trough into the plains at this time. I hope future runs will continue to latch onto this active pattern. There is the possibility this will all go for not, but it has me curious anyway.

It will be interesting to see what the ECMWF has to say within it's 7 day forecast. Does the ECMWF only go out to 7 days for the public or is there a place to view it beyond this?

 

[Jason Boggs]

It may not pan out, but at least it's a light on the horizon. I'm sure the end of March will start to get a little more active with systems moving in. The March 8th event was a nice little reminder that even Western Oklahoma can get severe weather in early March.

We've been getting systems impacting the southern plains all winter long, so I'm not sure the pattern will change much going into spring, especially with the El Nino pattern in place.

 

[rdale]

240hr ECMWF does show a nice system building through the western Plains with good inflow from the Gulf too.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

240hr ECMWF does show a nice system building through the western Plains with good inflow from the Gulf too.

Where can I look at the ECMWF that goes out to 240 hours? Thanks for the information as it's always nice when the GFS and ECMWF somewhat agree.

 

[JF Massicotte]

Where can I look at the ECMWF that goes out to 240 hours? Thanks for the information as it's always nice when the GFS and ECMWF somewhat agree.

You only get 500mb and 850mb from 3 to 10 days but:
Here

 

[GPhillips]

You can view the sea level pressure overlaid with 500 mb heights every 24 hours out to 240 hrs here:

http://ggweather.com/loops/ecmwf_all_00z.htm
http://ggweather.com/loops/ecmwf_all_12z.htm

 

[Chris Wilburn]

You can view the sea level pressure overlaid with 500 mb heights every 24 hours out to 240 hrs here:

http://ggweather.com/loops/ecmwf_all_00z.htm
http://ggweather.com/loops/ecmwf_all_12z.htm

Thanks for the link. All I really look at anyway on the ECMWF is to see if it matches up with the GFS in bringing some troughs off the west coast. This is exactly what I am looking for.

 

[jamesmseitz]

To mr these system starting with the 19th are going to stuggle for moist air.... GFS has moisture possible on the 20th.... The system on the 24th or 25 as well. But strong north winds prevailing upto the the day of the event has me worried about a return of the quality air..... But as stated previously, It is a great sign of things to come. Only time will tell.

 

[mikegeukes]

If you need more ECMWF maps, I have a weather site for that:
http://supercellweather-models-ecmwf.blogspot.com/

Mike

 

[Bill Tabor]

Personally I don't put much stock in the GFS that far out. IMO it may show "something" is coming, but what eventually shows up typically is not what originally was portrayed and often it is on a different day (earlier or later). It will tell you a large scale pattern change or feature may be approaching so that you can begin to monitor.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Personally I don't put much stock in the GFS that far out. IMO it may show "something" is coming, but what eventually shows up typically is not what originally was portrayed and often it is on a different day (earlier or later). It will tell you a large scale pattern change or feature may be approaching so that you can begin to monitor.

Definitely how it should be done too. Trying to pin down specifics at more than 48 hours is -- at least half the time -- a fruitless exercise. However, getting general patterns and setups is definitely important. Things seem to be hinting at a potential active period coming up towards the end of the month, but that's entirely dependent on how the gulf is treated. We're getting wiped clean in the Gulf once a week or so still, which isn't very conducive to big time severe WX

 

[Bob Hartig]

If you need more ECMWF maps, I have a weather site for that:
http://supercellweather-models-ecmwf.blogspot.com/

Mike

I'll put in a plug for your ECMWF site, Mike. It's a superb aggregate of ECMWF sources--everything's right there on one page. I resort to it whenever I'm seriously pondering long-range models.

 

[Chip Redmond]

If you need more ECMWF maps, I have a weather site for that:
http://supercellweather-models-ecmwf.blogspot.com/

Mike

Holy moley! Thats awesome! Byfar the best grouping of ECMWF I have ever seen! Thanks alot for the link!

And to keep to topic...It looks like a slow start as the chances for convective systems later in the month go down with every run. It's early, it could still change. Last year at this time there were two systems in March that I can remember and the one I chased was trending well with the models for several weeks.

Chip

 

[Chris Wilburn]

Definitely how it should be done too. Trying to pin down specifics at more than 48 hours is -- at least half the time -- a fruitless exercise. However, getting general patterns and setups is definitely important. Things seem to be hinting at a potential active period coming up towards the end of the month, but that's entirely dependent on how the gulf is treated. We're getting wiped clean in the Gulf once a week or so still, which isn't very conducive to big time severe WX

I had some hope when I started this thread, but to be honest I don't have much hope for the rest of the month now. The system that is coming through this Friday the 19th is going to kill moisture and shove it down south well into the Gulf of Mexico. Hopefully April will have something good to offer us.

 

[Scott Olson]

Oh don't look now but the tease is back again on the long-range of the GFS.