La Nina has arrived & will stick around through winter

[Steve Miller]

November 10, 2016 - La Nina has arrived and is favored to stick around through winter. Forecasters say the climate phenomena will likely contribute to drier and warmer weather in the southern U.S. and wetter, cooler conditions in the Pacific Northwest and across to the northern tier of the nation this winter.
Read more: http://www.noaa.gov/news/hello-la-nina

 

[Ryan Toemmes]

Evidence abound...

I see that Alabama is going thru a heavy drought phase at the moment...

La Niña effect in full force...

Hopefully translates to a possible quiet SE storm season for Dixie Alley...

We need the H2O thou to flow...


Sent from my iPhone using Stormtrack mobile app

 

[Tim Paitz]

What about spring or is it too early to call?

 

[Randy Jennings]

What about spring or is it too early to call?

See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml :

"Given the current atmospheric and oceanic conditions, along with model forecasts, the forecaster consensus favors the continuation of weak La Niña conditions through December-February (DJF) 2016-17. At this time, the consensus favors La Niña to be short-lived, with ENSO-neutral favored beyond DJF."

If it sticks around a few more months, the spring chase season could be interesting. See https://www.climate.gov/news-featur...a-niña-affect-spring-tornadoes-and-hailstorms .

 

[Tim Paitz]

See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml :

"Given the current atmospheric and oceanic conditions, along with model forecasts, the forecaster consensus favors the continuation of weak La Niña conditions through December-February (DJF) 2016-17. At this time, the consensus favors La Niña to be short-lived, with ENSO-neutral favored beyond DJF."

If it sticks around a few more months, the spring chase season could be interesting. See https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/el-niño-and-la-niña-affect-spring-tornadoes-and-hailstorms .

That's what I was thinking, Randy. The last La Niña was from 2010-2012 and it was one of the strongest ones.

However, no two La Niñas are the same. The question is, how does a weak La Niña influence severe weather in comparison to stronger ones? That said, it would be wise to not expect this spring to be like 2011.

 

[Andy Berrington]

Evidence abound...

I see that Alabama is going thru a heavy drought phase at the moment...

La Niña effect in full force...

Hopefully translates to a possible quiet SE storm season for Dixie Alley...

La Nina typically results in a more active season E of the Mississippi River, although weak ones tend to be more variable.