Informal Model Forecast Threads

[Brian Hartmann]

Is there any interest on Stormtrack of having a thread for model results in the 5-10 day range for days that are appearing via GFS and the like to pose a threat for severe weather, but which, given the lead-time, do not warrant an actual "EVENT" thread on the "Target Area"?

I am not envisioning a thread for each day, nor anything with any kind of formalized structure, but more a running log of discussion and questions and answers where everyone could trade viewpoints on items such as, for example, the fact that the today's 12z GFS is showing great instability and a good dryline move in Oklahoma on Sunday April 5. Sure it is 9 or 10 days out and the scenario could change up completely by then, but much can be learned by collaborative kibitzing.

So, two questions: Any interest it that? Would you all consider it valuable?

 

[rdale]

That's somewhat being incorporate in the 2015 Season thread... In any case, I'm not sure what can be learned collaboratively about 384hr GFS plots other than "the trend is your friend" and "ensembles ensembles ensembles" anyways

 

[Michael Gavan]

Only like, i dunno. A LOT. I think it should be completely open to noobs and veteran forecasters alike to begin conversations. I think they should be completely informal, semi-serious, and at times amusing. It might also be helpful for this to be a non-public members-only area. For instance, Yesterday a few of us on chat had a good time speculating about the possibility of this April 5-7 setup that is synoptically fantastic. Now it's making its way onto facebook, the 2015 thread, and now here. The need is there! I think this is a great time for noobs to cut their teeth on this "noise," for example. "Here's a hoodograph for 12 days from now, what's wrong with it, what's right, etc." Meanwhile we can be amused by improbable scenarios, false hope, and model consistency over time. Threads could start like this: "Euro showing deep western trough April 15-19" Discussion follows up with feasibility, problems, model consistency between runs, trends, other models, etc. If the setup begins to verify closer to the date, say NAM/SREF range, someone can issue an event thread, and the original fun thread gets locked away forever.

 

[David Williams]

I could get behind this for sure. Sounds fun and helpful. Although, it sounds a lot like the "Thoughts about the upcoming 2015 chase season" thread. I think Brian implies that the thread (if created) would have a constant chat that's ongoing just like the "Thoughts about the upcoming 2015 chase season," but it would be pinned to the top of the Target Area thread or something like that. Is that right Brian?

 

[Brian Hartmann]

That is what I was thinking, David. Certainly nothing with the formalism of the Event thread, and I would have no problem whatsoever with leaving it in the "Thoughs about the upcoming" thread since it incorporates a good mix of model guidance, climate index discussions and the like. I think that having it pinned to the top of the page would be a nice feature.