Hurricanes Become More Frequent?

[Mike Smith]

Chris,

Thank you. We are in synch, including on what I believe is the weakness in Kerry's work -- and, in the newer Webster paper... which is the relatively short time span (~25 years).

I would be more impressed with the findings if they went back to about 1940, when at least the Atlantic hurricane cycle was in the high mode.

Mike

 

[Jeff Snyder]

NCDC has a little write-up of Katrina at http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/resear...05/katrina.html

 

[Nic Wilson]

Here's a relay of some information being discussed here at OU. The beginning of this study unfortunately coincides with a minima in hurricane activity according to the Landsea hurricane intensity index provided by NCDC.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/resea...step6.06-11.gif

It's interesting to see that the current 5-year running average is similar to activity in the 1930s and 1940s, although this year will definitely raise the index near record levels. I think we can all agree that 20-25 years of data is insufficient to make any ascertations considering the underlying cycles are longer than Webster's temporal duration of his study.