Hurricanes Become More Frequent?

Oxford Analytica, 09.08.05

The frequency of hurricanes and other storm events in the southern Atlantic is higher than in previous years. This increase may be part of a longer-term cycle, and storm events could occur more often for a decade or more.

Governments need to invest in the infrastructure necessary to mitigate storm events and their immediate aftermath if impacts are to be reduced.

While it remains difficult to predict the specific timing and location of catastrophic weather events like the U.S. Gulf Coast hurricane last week, scientists can predict whether a particular hurricane season is likely to be more or less intense.

Researchers at Colorado State University have forecasted hurricanes for the last 22 years, using a long-range model that draws on 52 years of data. In April, they predicted that the 2005 storm season would be active, with the likelihood of hurricanes making landfall on the continental United States 40% higher than the long-term average. The Colorado modelers predicted that this season would see three Category 3-5 storms. The meteorology of storm prediction is extremely complex and involves the interaction of multiple variables on a global scale. The Colorado team uses six predictors in its model.

More:
http://www.forbes.com/2005/09/08/hurricane...rmtracking.html

Full-lenghth analysis:
http://www.oxan.com/display.aspx?StoryDate...=1&StoryType=DB

To read without registration, try:
http://www.bugmenot.com/
 
i was watching this show on National Geographic channel and William Gray was on saying that the Atlantic had warmed by 1 degree and thats why he was expecting more hurricanes to occur
 
On Discovery channel tonight, they ran the special "Killer Hurricane." They had a geologist or someone (wasn't really paying attention to his title) and he was saying that he looks at coastal marshes (by core sampling) and can see periods of active tropical weather. He noticed a 1500 year cycle and apparently we are just getting out of the 1500 year low period.
 
Originally posted by Andrew Khan
Two words....Global Warming.

Eh, can't convince me that the minute change in temperatures over the period of 50 years has that quick of an effect on hurricanes. I'm willing to call it an anomalous occurence.

Besides, global warming would probably be cooling the oceans due to the effect of arctic ice meltwater moving southward...
 
Why are you so sure/convinced, that it is moving southward bound? I really wasn't trying to insinuate that, all of this was recurring; I was trying to provide political innuendo, for my own self gratification. But I do however believe that collectively over a period of sustained years, it WILL affect the atmosphere causing more sporadic and spontaneous/erratic storms. As we achieve global warming, the atmosphere must, adapt to those changed, and it doing so causes severe weather, perhaps more than usual. Look at what I am saying ‘collectively’, please.
 
Originally posted by Andrew Khan
Why are you so sure/convinced, that it is moving southward bound? I really wasn't trying to insinuate that, all of this was recurring; I was trying to provide political innuendo, for my own self gratification. But I do however believe that collectively over a period of sustained years, it WILL affect the atmosphere causing more sporadic and spontaneous/erratic storms. As we achieve global warming, the atmosphere must, adapt to those changed, and it doing so causes severe weather, perhaps more than usual. Look at what I am saying ‘collectively’, please.

I never said it didn't exist, but I am simply saying that I don't think this years hurricane season is a direct cause of global warming. The problem is, we don't have enough data to determine whether or not global warming is real or not - perhaps it's a million year cycle, much like global cooling and ice ages... There just isn't enough data to prove it either way.
 
First of all, I think global warming has absolutely nothing to do with this years hurricane season. People were blaming global warming in 2003 when we had a record number of tornadoes. So far this year, we are way below the three year average on tornadoes. If the increase in tornadoes was a result of global warming, then why did it stop this year?
Like rdewey already mentioned, global warming would cool the oceans because of the ice fields melting. There were 21 tropical storms in 1933 and global warming had nothing to do with it then. This is simply an active season which has resulted from conditions being just right for tropical cyclones, which was bound to happen eventually. It is not a result of global warming IMO.
 
Being a bit older than most people on this Board, I may be able to provide some useful perspective.

Dr. Gray was forecasting an increase in hurricanes during the 1990's and the first decade of the 2000's before anyone ever heard of "global warming" -- I heard it straight from him.

Regarding Kerry's paper, one has to realize the 1970's was a period of very low hurricane activity, something Dr. Gray pointed out in the same lecture regarding the predicted upswing in hurricanes. The fact that there is more hurricane energy now (compared to the '70's) is probably true, but what does it mean? It would be far more meaningful if we could measure now versus the 1940's-early 60's when Dr. Gray's cycle was last in the "high" mode.

The Cat. 5's that have affected the United States all occurred with global temperatures substantially cooler than are currently being observed.
 
I would think the earth is getting warmer, since record keeping really started what back in 1880? From that time on, the average temp has increased upwards. But as Mike Gribble said in 1933 there where 21 storms and global warming was not a factor then. I found an artical about the sun is getting hotter http://www.washtimes.com/world/20040718-11...15714-6334r.htm this might part of the cause, the simple fact is there is not enought data either way.
 
While I agree that there is no data or trend to really suggest global warming
is having an effect on Hurricane activity I don't agree with Gray's assessment that those who think it's possible are just coming to that conclusion to keep their federal funding. I doubt that is the case with most and leaving the possibility open to be explored or disproved is good science.
 
Re: global warming:

a) There is strong evidence it exists, even if TechCentralStation would prefer it didn't.

B) It can't be proven let alone assumed to have measureable impact on any given storm. A Cat 5 can landfall on a US city in any year. The global warming signal is faint.

The hurricane cycle has more observational and historical data behind it and is a better explanation of increasing hurricane frequency and intensity.

It's hard to be apolitical, but what can be said about the situation is that both sides tend to prostitute the science.
 
Chris,

Yes, but the topic of this thread (Eric's initial post) is Katrina, so my comments were limited to the Atlantic.

The press coverage of Kerry's paper junxtaposed the paper on to Katrina. All I am saying is:

1) There is no scientific evidence to tie Katrina to global warming. Stronger (in terms of central pressure) hurricanes have hit the U.S. with considerably cooler global temperatures.

2) In the Atlantic, Dr. Gray and others were forecasting an increase in hurricane activity in the 90's and first decade of the 2000's long before anyone heard of global warming. The fact that the Atlantic is more active now than in the 70's or 80's is hardly "proof" of global warming.

Not sure why you want to read into my comments more than what I have written.

Mike
 
Chris,

Thank you. We are in synch, including on what I believe is the weakness in Kerry's work -- and, in the newer Webster paper... which is the relatively short time span (~25 years).

I would be more impressed with the findings if they went back to about 1940, when at least the Atlantic hurricane cycle was in the high mode.

Mike
 
Here's a relay of some information being discussed here at OU. The beginning of this study unfortunately coincides with a minima in hurricane activity according to the Landsea hurricane intensity index provided by NCDC.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/resea...step6.06-11.gif

It's interesting to see that the current 5-year running average is similar to activity in the 1930s and 1940s, although this year will definitely raise the index near record levels. I think we can all agree that 20-25 years of data is insufficient to make any ascertations considering the underlying cycles are longer than Webster's temporal duration of his study.
 
Back
Top