Hurricane Season 2011 Forecast - Extended Range Release

[DeleBalogun]

Well everyone, here's the first report and it looks like it's going to be another busy one! I'm sure these numbers may fluctuate a bit between now and then. Interesting to note that the 2011 season is forecast to be only 2 less storms than the 2010. Might we see the first U.S. landfall since 2008 and the first major landfall since Wilma? Who knows. But as we all know, the total number of storms haven't any relation to whether or not we'll see a landfall. Anyway, enjoy the read! http://www.news.colostate.edu/Release/5516

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

This is interesting and one important factor is the La Niña pattern.

One big question - Basically the $64,000 question - How many of the systems in 2011 will affect the US (let alone any land)?

One basic rule of thumb as per 2010, is WHERE the favorable SST's and tropical "friendly" (such as low shear and high boundary layer moisture / lack of Saharan Air Layer) will be.

In 2010, it was way-the-freak out in the eastern Atlantic, showing very high SST's as early as March. Meanwhile, on "our side" of the ocean, and Gulf of Mexico, sea surface temperatures (SST's) were BELOW normal, owing to a very cold Dec / Jan in FL and the deep south / NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The SW Caribbean also was un-affected by this cold area, and had warm SST's in 2010 as well.

Above: March 2010 shows high SST, but only in the far eastern Atlantic with a waning El Niño pattern. Sorry for the low quality, it was a screen shot from Jim Leonard's laptop back in March at his party in the FL Keys ;-)

It appears this same (or similar) pattern MIGHT be setting up this year as well (sigh) - Heck Miami's high was 55 degrees yesterday. Meanwhile, in the eastern tropics, no cold air to speak of.

Basically, a "hot" spot in the SW Caribbean and warm SST's in the Eastern Atlantic, come hurricane season 2011, especially the Cape Verde storms, we'll see a LOT of activity in these areas. However, with storms forming that far out, they have to cross the entire Atlantic (weeks) to get to the US, and be highly suseptible to weaknesses in the Azores-Bermuda high to their north, with nearly ALL of those systems recurving out to sea.

Meanwhile, in the SW Caribbean, storms may for there, but move straight west into central America (especially Nicaragua). Chasing there is in areas accessible only by canoe (aka Moskito coast) - so forget it. Storms crossing the penninsula and into the Bay of Campeche will also strengthen, and offer a good Mexican chase (such as Karl in 2010 near Veracruz) - Just be careful there.

Hopefully for hurricane chasing, this pattern won't repeat in 2011, and we'll have storms closer to land where they can be studied / chased.