How many chasers make their own forecasts?

[George Dikun]

Being very inexperienced, I would consider myself to be an SPC chaser. While the SPC is a great resource, I know it's best to learn how to forecast on my own. I often see posts from others discussing their own forecasts, but I'm curious to know how many other weather enthusiasts actually make their own (accurate) forecasts.

-George

 

[Rob H]

Just a hunch, but anyone that posts a shot of a tornado they bagged in the RPTS thread probably did their own forecast. I look at what other chasers are forecasting and what the SPC is saying on some occasions because you'll never catch every little detail on every event yourself.

You'll get lucky a few times by following SPC forecasts or the SpotterNetwork dots, but if you don't know how to forecast for yourself, you won't know how to adjust when the models don't play out exactly the way you thought they would. To me, it's part of the fun of the hobby and it gives you something to do in between chases. The first time you nail a tricky forecast is like winning the biggest contest in the world.

 

[rdale]

On this forum I'd guess a majority do... In general I think it's a minority.

 

[Jeremy Den Hartog]

I do my own forecasts as well - however, its not something I would consider myself to be an 'expert' at...everything I know has been 'self taught' or in other words without taking a class of any kind (much of what I've learned I did so through reading things on this very forum) and I try to learn something new as often as I can (even if I bust, there is still something to learn). Its definitely worthwhile to learn how to forecast yourself as Robert said...

 

[Brandon Copic]

I'm not a great forecaster, but I am in no way an SPC chaser, I mean I'm not putting down the forecasters who forecast for the SPC but I would rather put my chasing in my hands and my forecasting, not someone elses.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Agreed with Robert. I was an SPC chaser my first year and didn't get anything. I learned the very basics for my second year of chasing, and got 4 tornadoes. Then between my 2nd and 3rd I decided to learn to do it myself. With the help of several chaser friends, forecasting workshops, case studies, and the vast amount of knowledge out there on the net, I finally picked up forecasting. While I still don't know some of the details, I know enough to know where the best area will be. I've been lucky to get 30 tornadoes this year. While most of my success this year was due to luck (gotta thank mother nature for putting on the show), I have to think some of it was due to being in the right area. Once I get a pretty sure target, I can adjust to get the shot I want.

 

[Brad Nelson]

All the time.

Hello George,
I always make my own forecasts in regards to storm chasing, relying on the SPC as an afterthought. But I will say that I do not look down on anybody that is not a forecaster, storm chaser or Meteorologist to use SPC outlooks to determine where the highest probability of severe weather will occur. That is, of course, what these outlooks are for, to pertain to the general public. But success off of using SPC outlooks to storm chase has to be very low and I would recommend learning how to forecast a position, compared to using these SPC forecasts to determing where you would find severe weather. Just my opinion!

B R A D

 

[J Tyler]

Since I am not a meteorologist, and have a full time job, I don't do a forcast for every day. WHEN I see the SPC showing something interesting within my personal range (Texas/Oklahoma/Kansas/Arkansas), I then start doing my VERY CRUDE forcasting. I use different web resourses to look at all the data and try to figure out WHERE within that giant "slight" I think something will happen. How strong will it be, and when will it happen.

I am a -complete- hackjob amature, but I put real effort into learning. I do "couch chasing" where I work up what I would be doing IF I could be in the field, then see how I did as the days unfold. To me, that is a fun part of the hobby.

Once storms begin to fire, I'm pretty good at figuring out which storms will go severe and how to intercept them. My REAL weak point is morning of pre-positioning. When I check the data after the 8:30am SPC update, my lack of knowledge/schooling/training/?????, means I have low confidence that I am picking the right location to set up for the day. This past season (2010), I had a lot of success in this, but I believe it was 20% me, and 80% blind luck. I hope next season to push this to 25% me, 75% luck!

 

[Jesse Risley]

I always make my own forecasts. There's nothing wrong with basing your forecasts on the SPC, but I don't see how you can chase time and time again without living and dying by surface observations.

When it comes time to actually move to a target, you really need to learn how to read surface maps, upper air maps, visible satellite data, etc. Basing everything off of the SPC might give you a good handle on the synoptic-scale environment, but it's not going to help you recognize and position yourself proximal to a pre-frontal trough or an outflow boundary, nor is it going to do you any good if you're 40 miles west of a developing Cu field waiting for the storms to fire in the bullseye of the SPC probability map. If you don't learn how to read and understand these short-term mesoscale features, your success vs. failure ratio will be a lot more abysmal.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

I treat the SPC as a secondary source. I do virtually all my core forecasting myself, and it's paid off for me more than it's hurt me. I use multiple model sources, as well as soundings, surface obs, the whole package. Over the last couple years, I've gotten pretty darn good at nailing down a forecast target. My big struggle has always been the chase itself. I've still got a lot to learn when it comes to getting on a storm at the right time and making good navigational decisions.

 

[Derek Weston]

Chiefly use a variety of different models to get a general forecast on the setup going. As D-Day nears I tend to read more opinions, including the SPC, along with my own monitoring of the models. (of course once things start heating up, it's almost all surface data observations) Everything that goes into my head is then used to output my best reasonable guess -- ie; the "forecast."

I can't think of any forecasting entity that does better than the SPC, so I'm always sure to consider what they have to say. I think the best of the best at least read and consider what the SPC tosses out there. (that said.. of course there are going to be days where they're slow to coming around to something you see, or miss something altogether... though the opposite true enough as well, at least for me)

Of course the key to getting more out of SPC forecasts is understanding why they say what they say... from them you need to be able to gleam a more robust understanding of the science that is.

 

[Doug Ott]

I am lot like Jacob. For me using SPC and reading other peoples input on this forum is only used for learning. I like to read other peoples forcast as well as SPC's and try to learn about what they are seeing. Boundaries, shortwaves, effect of this front, cold pools, capping issues, etc. the list can go on and on. I thank those who post their forcasts. They have taught me alot. I like to learn about weather.

For me to rely solely on SPC forcasts is hard to do though. Chasing the plains in spring may require a day or two at analyzing models in advance. Personally, I like to spend 4-5 days looking at maps, just to find consistencies between models and watch everything evolve. I learned this after my first year of chasing. If you sit around waiting on SPC s 12Z forcast for day of, you more than likely have limited yourself to a 300 mile driving radius. That don t get me from here to Oklahoma/Texas in time for the show. So, to start forcasting couple days out is a requirement (in my opinion), so that you can get or take that day off from work. Also, you can make half your drive to your target area the day before. Leaving you lots of time to make adjustments throughout the day and studying maps in the morning. Not to mention how do you know exactly where to drive within that radius of risk that SPC gives you. If you are a local chaser or spotter on the other hand, and is only going 50 miles out of you way to chase, then yes SPC udates might be fresh enough to rely on throughout the day. Although, as fast as weather can change and stoms can move that can be a big MIGHT.

 

[Steve Miller]

I forecast on my own and almost always save the material I view so I can go back and review the exact maps I looked at to make my forecast. After the event I can see exactly where either I screwed up, or the model failed. This makes model trending that much easier over time and frankly, I consider it the best way to learn.
I do not do much hand analysis but I DO keep dry erase markers at my desk and draw on my screen as I pull up different maps in F5Data. I never really got into printing out a sheet of paper and basically doing something that's already done for me on the screen, although the people who do it usually out-forecast me so I must be missing out. It might be because they are Operational Mets too. Who knows... : )

I will admit I'm in there clicking refresh on the 1630 and 2000 SPC Convective Outlooks just like the rest of you (even the ones who say they don't). My primary reasoning is to see if my target area is anywhere near the guys who make a living forecasting severe weather. If it's not, I can try to see what they are looking at and justify changing course.

 

[Danny Neal]

I forecast on my own and almost always save the material I view so I can go back and review the exact maps I looked at to make my forecast. After the event I can see exactly where either I screwed up, or the model failed. This makes model trending that much easier over time and frankly, I consider it the best way to learn.
I do not do much hand analysis but I DO keep dry erase markers at my desk and draw on my screen as I pull up different maps in F5Data. I never really got into printing out a sheet of paper and basically doing something that's already done for me on the screen, although the people who do it usually out-forecast me so I must be missing out. It might be because they are Operational Mets too. Who knows... : )

I will admit I'm in there clicking refresh on the 1630 and 2000 SPC Convective Outlooks just like the rest of you (even the ones who say they don't). My primary reasoning is to see if my target area is anywhere near the guys who make a living forecasting severe weather. If it's not, I can try to see what they are looking at and justify changing course.

Minus the dry erase markers and F5 Data I am pretty much the exact same. It is interesting to note model trending.... something I plan on looking a bit more into...

 

[Bob Hartig]

I know where you're at, George. When I first got started, my "forecasting" technique consisted of heading for the center of the SPC risk area.

But as has been pointed out, part of the fun is in making your own forecasts. Don't be afraid to try. There's a lot to learn, but you'll get it by and by if you work at it. Every one of us on here started out knowing nothing, and our levels of ability vary. I am by no means the most knowledgeable forecaster on Stormtrack, but I've enjoyed my share of successes, and every season I get better...and every season I also come up feeling like a damn fool at times. It's the nature of the game.

Pick up Tim's books, read the forecast discussions here, get out and chase a few clouds, and have fun! I might add, these chase cases that keep forum members occupied over the winter are a great way to test the water. If nothing else, just follow them and see how people are thinking.