How many chasers make their own forecasts?

[Andy Jackson]

I personally like the SPC mesoanalysis page for the day of the event.This is a very good forecasting tool as well as learning tool. Even though I was wondering about some SPC outlooks they are usually dead on, but use them for comparison and learning.

 

[Melissa Jablonski]

I treat the SPC as a secondary source. I do virtually all my core forecasting myself, and it's paid off for me more than it's hurt me. I use multiple model sources, as well as soundings, surface obs, the whole package. Over the last couple years, I've gotten pretty darn good at nailing down a forecast target. My big struggle has always been the chase itself. I've still got a lot to learn when it comes to getting on a storm at the right time and making good navigational decisions.

I pretty much do what you do. I also check the SPC products in case I missed something.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Forecasting is half the fun of chasing. I also enjoy talking over a day's setup with other chasers out in the field. Its great to converse with other chasers and compare thoughts and what everyone is seeing.

 

[cstrunk]

A written flow chart is a great idea! I wonder if each of us developed a flow chart, how similar or dissimilar would they would be? I think I'll play around with one this winter and see if it helps me stay on-track with the order in which I view maps.
Thanks for posting.

Ditto, I was thinking the same thing. It would be a good thing to do. I would make one with a checklist of things to look at, with links to the sources of where to find that info.

I am still very inexperienced and don't do much detailed forecasting myself. I will usually look a few days ahead to see if there is a chance of storms, and then follow SPC's general guidance, take a peek at a few models (still learning which ones to use and the best places to find them), as well as check here to see what other chasers opinions are. There are a lot of great minds that post their thoughts here, and I learn a lot by just reading what they have to say. So thank you all who do that.

On the day of, I watch surface observations pretty closely. Cloud cover, winds, radar trends, temperatures, moisture, CAPE, boundary locations, etc. and try to follow where the hot spot(s) lines up at.

Having a flowchart would really help me learn to be a better chaser, IMO. If anyone who already has one would be willing to share what they have, I would be greatly appreciative.

 

[Jason Foster]

I use to do it more, but these days so many sources give good forecasts I find it easier to just check on the others. BUT, it is important to understand the elements in certain discussions if you are after a particular target. I don't find meteorology particularly interesting...I chase for the adventure, the travel, the experience. I do enjoy the physical science behind storms, but forecasting is just a means to an end for me. I don't care how I get it...as long as I am getting more often than I could by other means. If that meant actually doing my own forecasts...than fine, but it hasn't as of late.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

I definitely look at the SPC, but base my forecasts and targets much less on them now. I do especially like the day 3 and 4-8 as a general outlook guidance, and reasoning behind it in the text. Maybe I am lazy, but it keeps me from having to look at the GFS every day. The free euro resolution and data is so worthless i rarely ever look at it.

I've made some pretty successful and unsuccessful forecasts. I've used a plethora of stuff as well - GEMPAK with nmap2 and nsharp are my favorites right now, with RUC, NAM and GFS data. Twisterdata has very good looking maps.

My favorites on chase day are the SPC Mesoanalysis, and their soundings page. The SREF is nice. I almost always look at the 12Z and 15Z RUC.

I still think the most important tools are surface obs and visible satellite.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I remember the first time I chased...I looked on the weather channel and saw red on the map near Plainview, TX and that's where I went. Of course I busted, but I came back home with lots of questions and enthusiasm for the next chase. I knew I had to learn about storm chasing and forecasting if I wanted to be successful. Early on, say in my first 2 years or so, the SPC was a major influence on where I targeted. After 2003 or so I wanted to really learn how to forecast on my own because after 3 years of chasing, I only saw 1 tornado. I knew about storm structure, but the forecasting wasn't there yet. Luckily I chased for a tv station and had the opportunity to take in lots of info from the weekend met named Dan Skoff. Along with the internet, he taught me some valuable info when it came to forecasting storms.

Now, the forecast is almost as much fun as the actual chase. I love to forecast and tickle Mother Nature's belly to try to make her give up her secrets on a chase day. I love every aspect of forecasting. Yes, it can sometimes be frustrating, but when a forecast verifies, it's almost breathtaking. I will never absolutely depend on someone else's forecast because if I screw up, I want to take full responsibility for it. In my opinion, it makes me more eager to learn and see what I did wrong. Anyway, enough of the rambling here. One final thought...I do look at the SPC outlooks, but I just use them as a verification of my own forecast.

EDIT: For those of you that want forecasting links neatly arranged in a website, go to my CHASEDATA page.

 

[Dave Rennie]

Chasedata Links

For those of you that want forecasting links neatly arranged in a website, go to my CHASEDATA page.

Love the "McDonald's Locator"!