How has your Target Area selection evolved?

[John Cameron]

Lets say you've been chasing for 8 to 10 years. Are there certain parameters or influences that you consider now, that you had no use for early on?

For example: This spring you're going to give more credence to where the jet max meets the dryline, whereas 7 years ago that wasn't a major influence.

How has your TA selection evolved?

 

[Chad Cowan]

Lets say you've been chasing for 8 to 10 years. Are there certain parameters or influences that you consider now, that you had no use for early on?

For example: This spring you're going to give more credence to where the jet max meets the dryline, whereas 7 years ago that wasn't a major influence.

How has your TA selection evolved?

I think I can sum up the evolution of my forecast process like this, starting off about 7 years ago:

Tornado Warning Chaser
Tornado Watch Chaser
SPC Convective Outlook Chaser
Spotternetwork Chaser (just kidding )
Sig Tor/ Mesoanalysis Chaser
EHI Chaser
Real Objective Forecasting Chaser

 

[Mikey Gribble]

Early on I relied more heavily on SPC, which I think most of us do. Now I more or less just look to them for confirmation of what I'm thinking. I know if they disagree or have something different in their forecast then I missed something (or I suck) and I need to go back and take a closer look.

As far as how my forecasting has changed... I didn't used to check current conditions and soundings nearly as much as I do now. I think I just spend a lot more time on my forecasting now and am much more in-depth and thorough. On average it probably takes me four times longer to forecast now than it did after I'd been chasing for a few years.

I have gotten much lazier when it comes to targeting than I used to be and I need to snap out of it. When I was younger I'd be all about heading up to South Dakota and Minnesota for a good chase day, but now it takes some really good tornado potential to motivate me enough to drive that far. I also don't go out on days close to home (within a few hours of here) when the tornado potential is really low and I get my pants pulled down routinely because of it. I think I missed more tornadoes last year for being an idiot than I actually saw. My girlfriend (she was a meteorologist) used to call me a storm snob and I think that was pretty accurate. I'm trying to get back to the point where I'm enthusiastic and ready to go even on the mediocre setups.

 

[J West]

LOL @ Chad...I was/am the same up to the "Sig Tor/ Mesoanalysis Chaser", which is about where I am at now.

Gribble's thought process mimics my own. When I was in college back in the dark ages of the 90's, I was out chasing anything that even looked like it might make a tube, which was generally not the case because of my lack of knowledge. Because meteorology was not my major, it forced me to limit my time spent on learning about the mesoscale and pre-storm environment...so as time passed after school, I spent less time in the field or learning about severe storm environments. Last year, I finally started to have time to chase more and got out quite a few times with a couple of nice intercepts. No tornadoes, but the storms were where I'd thought they would be and were rotating. Given my past track record years ago, I couldn't ask for anything more.

Since that renewed my spirit, this year I'm doing a lot of reading and researching looking forward to summer to apply that knowledge to storm days. I can finally spend some time and money on my "hobby" and get something back out of it.

 

[Matt Hughes]

I think I can sum up the evolution of my forecast process like this, starting off about 7 years ago:

Tornado Warning Chaser
Tornado Watch Chaser
SPC Convective Outlook Chaser
Spotternetwork Chaser (just kidding )
Sig Tor/ Mesoanalysis Chaser
EHI Chaser
Real Objective Forecasting Chaser

Well said Chad! That just about sums up my evolution through the years although I try not to let a forecast tie me down once I'm out there. Also, I wish I paid more attention to real time obs during and after initiation.

 

[Shane Adams]

Biggest change for me in the past ten years is the SPC factor. In 1999, SPC was my forecast. Today, I use SPC to get a feel for what they think VS my own forecast. I've always held the SPC in high regard. I've known many chasers (many friends) who've taken shots at them for years when they miss an event or blow a forecast, but amazingly, still know of no chasers who don't use their site and data.

The main things I look for for target areas are surface features. For years I did my analysis from the jet stream down...nowadays I've turned that around and start from the ground up (literally). I'm really big on thermodynamics and LL shear. I tend to gravitate towards dryline bulges/mesoslows, and any rogue boundaries from overnight convection. You seem to get the crazy stuff from storms along boundaries (ala 5-24-08). And as anyone who reads my posts knows, I'll take instability over shear any day of the week.

 

[David Drummond]

Biggest change for me in the past ten years is the SPC factor. In 1999, SPC was my forecast. Today, I use SPC to get a feel for what they think VS my own forecast. I've always held the SPC in high regard. I've known many chasers (many friends) who've taken shots at them for years when they miss an event or blow a forecast, but amazingly, still know of no chasers who don't use their site and data.

The main things I look for for target areas are surface features. For years I did my analysis from the jet stream down...nowadays I've turned that around and start from the ground up (literally). I'm really big on thermodynamics and LL shear. I tend to gravitate towards dryline bulges/mesoslows, and any rogue boundaries from overnight convection. You seem to get the crazy stuff from storms along boundaries (ala 5-24-08). And as anyone who reads my posts knows, I'll take instability over shear any day of the week.

I have to publicly say Shane I personally have been quite proud of your progress from your earlier days. I remember when you didn't give hoot about forecasting.

I'm all about the surface features and satellite trends on day one. Shane's got it right, give me a good boundary supercell latching on to some boundary any day. I like to took for boundaries intersecting other boundaries in a prime area, such as an old oublow boundary/dryline intersection.

I learned a long time ago, while reading various AFDs. The best forecasters are the ones that start out talking about what is currently going on, and how it relates to what the models say, rather than just start out with the models.

NEVER underestimate the importance of current conditions and how they evolve throughout the day in relation to your target, and be flexible enough in your target to change as conditions may warrant.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

And as anyone who reads my posts knows, I'll take instability over shear any day of the week.

Exactly how I feel. High instability and low shear may mean no tornadoes, but you still usually get some fun storms, and all it takes for that extra spin is an unexpected boundary. More often than not, high shear and low instability means a complete bust in my experience.

 

[Danny Neal]

Love instability BTW. In the beginning of the 2000's I was all about the SPC, really had little forecasting skill and depended on SPC and NWS forecasts. As time evolved I began feeling like I was leeching and really wanted to carve my own path. Don't get me wrong I still look at the SPC, but that is to compare similarities and differences. SPC is a great tool for the beginner or the novice forecaster as long (IMO) you try to form your own forecast before or after. It is how I started along with Habys Hint or w/e.

Now a days I use Twisterdata or COD for the models and look for favorable winds and an area of CAPE and then work from there. As Shane said, high instability over shear any day. On chase day, its all about surface conditions and satellite imagery.

 

[Derek Weston]

It'll be couple years now that I've been using the models to start my decision making process. . . However, still cross check my thoughts with those of the SPC's. The way I see it... they're a bit more educated in forecasting to me -- who consistently tops that group?

So I put some weight in their words. Specifically -- their reasoning. Now, if I don't agree with them on something, I don't agree -- if I don't see something they're saying, I don't see it. They've certainly given, and continue to give me, plenty of valuable information relative to my chase decision making.

And I'll throw out stormtrack as a resource that can work in a similar way. I don't base chases off of anybody else's, but you'll get lots of valuable thoughts here on any given chase. I don't think of everything -- other people will make points of consideration that I will add to my conisderation set.

Right now I feel I'm at the point where I need to do a better job of responding to in-the-field conditions -- real-time situations. Game-day decisions. (getting on the top storm...vs getting 'decent' storms -- you know the struggle)

 

[Dave Chapman]

NEVER underestimate the importance of current conditions and how they evolve throughout the day in relation to your target, and be flexible enough in your target to change as conditions may warrant.

No matter how compelling a target may seem at 8 am, it is how well I monitor and understand changes to conditions throughout the day that always seems to determine my success or failure. This takes clear thinking which can be fairly elusive on the second or third day of active chasing. Sometimes the quickest way to reach yet-to-develop storms is an hour of rest and studying the latest data and contemplating the possibilities (i.e. enjoy the process).

In past years, I tended to accept the more obvious targeting solutions (usually heavily influenced by the latest models) and be slow to acknowledge the possibility of a drastically different outcome. More recently, I've focused on getting within striking distance of a broad target until the late morning update (and not overdriving too early), then making adjustments as convective initiation approaches.

 

[Dean Baron]

When I'm looking at models I also look for a good wind field and good CAPE, if there's an area I'll take a closer look. Like others have I use the SPC outlooks to confirm what I'm thinking, but sometimes its hard to not let it change your target. One thing I learned this last year is the importance of finding the subtle boundaries. I've always paid more attention to surface obs more than models on a chase day. Models are wrong a lot but actual surface obs show what's really happening. I dont think I've changed my methods too much going in to my fourth season...

 

[Glenn Dixon]

I know just enough about forecasting to be dangerous. Guess that rules me out for applying for chase team positions....

But I have managed to find plenty of storms without being a total Klingon and pissing other people off. I read a lot of StormTrack, I pay attention to SPC text, I try to remember what model bias has been occurring in previous SPC targets, AND...........most importantly in my opinion.....when I'm in the field I do not religiously stick to some idealistic forecast target area if storms are actually firing up in another county. See storm, go there. Watch radar. Talk to other chasers on the phone. Listen in on local Skywarn repeaters.

I'm not sure that this is that much different than when I first started chasing.