Gulf

Joined
Apr 25, 2004
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504
Location
DFW
MODS: If you think this post is a too pre-mature, feel free to delete it, Im just putting in my 2 cents here and seeing what the board thinks.

As you can see from the NHC site, there is a weak disturbance in the Gulf, which is actually the leftover remnants of TD from the Pacific. I mention this b/c, believe it or not, some of the models do blow this up into a named storm. The GFS from this morning would lend one to believe so. Would be nice to see pressure data from 42002 but seeing how its still effed up, cant really rely on it too much. Wish to God theyd get around to fixing it, its only buoy in the Bay of Campeche

GFS run from 100904_1200: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2010090412&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Right now the shear across the WRN Gulf is pretty stout but think it should relax a bit over the next day or so. Dry air over the southern US should erode as this past weeks strong CF retreats as WF on Sun/Mon bringing deeper moisture with it.
 
GOM TD or TS developing may be headed for South TX?

Based on Sat & new 0Z data TS or higher in the next 72 Hrs is possible toward Brownsville TX area.
 
[wishcasting=September 8]
I'm keeping an eye on tropical storm hermine in the off-chance for some tornadoes on Wednesday. I know I'm dreaming just a bit, or you could call it excessive wish-casting, but as the remnant of hermine gets carried off to the northeast, some of the forecast soundings would be quite favorable for mini-sups... if (big "if") we could only manage some insolation (which the models are not showing). Even just a small bit would help. Perhaps if some dry air can get entrained into the Low via dry-slot or something.

here is a forecast sounding from this mornings 06z GFS run.
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...nding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Need this to be more exaggerated, with more dry air over Wichita Falls, TX.
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...nding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
[/wishcasting]
 
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