Gulf: Tropical Storm Hermine

[NickSeyour]

First decent US landfall?

 

[rdale]

No, I can't see this being a notable event at all... Gusty winds and some showers & storms should be all Hermine is remembered for.

 

[Zack Cooper]

Yes... it would be a decent US landfall IF it made a us landfall... which with its current motion... it should not... Still... it will probably dump a lot of rain and bring ts force gusts to a lot of South Texas.

 

[Bill Tabor]

You guys forget about the potential for spiral band tornadoes on a landfalling tropical storm particularly the right front quadrant. I may be checking it out tomorrow. David Douglas and Randy Denzer are down there north of Corpus at the moment as a band is moving in from off shore. They are also streaming on Tornadovideos.net

PS: My problem tomorrow is I turned ALL my data off for the offseason. We are expected in Austin to possibly get up to 4 inches of rain which I think will be nice. I sometimes like riding my mountain bike in the rain. Luckily I just finished mowing my yard which had gotten about a foot high in the back. It was still wet from rain this morning. I can't imagine how bad it would have been if I wait for the 4 inches and then let it dry. Could be nice weather for sitting on the back porch and sipping on some coffee or some good beer and enjoying the rain showers...something I've always loved to do.

 

[Lanny Dean]

No, I can't see this being a notable event at all... Gusty winds and some showers & storms should be all Hermine is remembered for.

I hope your right but.....it certainly looks like a probable flooding event for Texas and Oklahoma. Looks like all Spaghettii models are on the same page with projected track. Might be something to keep an eye on.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

No, I can't see this being a notable event at all... Gusty winds and some showers & storms should be all Hermine is remembered for.

Actually, it has turned out to be quite notable. Surface obs throughout S TX (Brownsville, Harlingen, South Padre Island) were fairly impressive, with widespread reports of damage (some structural) and whole towns completely blacked out. The cyclone's core stayed quite intact as it moved inland, and a very well-defined N/E eyewall feature moved right over Brownsville.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

I wonder if the NHC might posthumously upgrade this to 65 kt for the MX landfall, given that the surface obs in S TX-- well inland, several hours after landfall-- were quite solid. It'll be interesting to read the official report after they've performed whatever postanalysis.

 

[rdale]

it certainly looks like a probable flooding event for Texas and Oklahoma.

Oh I agree with that... I just don't think the actual landfall will involve winds more than Cat1.

 

[Michael Nicolaou]

I can say I am currently enjoying the best Hermin has to offer right now in downtown San Antonio. With the more Northerly track the center of circulation is just to me SSE currently and we are getting consistent 25 mph with 30 + gusts. The rain has been pretty consistent since about 4am but nothing too bad just yet.

Nice to be able to enjoy this one first hand.

 

[Lanny Dean]

Interesting how Hermine is keeping a decent shape. A very well defined eye still intact and while "she" maybe losing her punch..she is certainly looking good doing it!

 

[Michael Nicolaou]

This is actually the closest to the COC I've ever been even after riding out a few in Clear Lake. Gonna be about 1.5 miles from it according to my best guesses. It's really blowing now, lots of tree crap and gusts easy in the mid 40 mphs.

 

[Marko Korosec]

San Antonio reported sustained winds of 43mph and gusts up to 60mph.

http://www.wunderground.com/history...tml?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Hermine is an impressive cyclone. The surface obs and radar presentation across S TX have been spectacular for an inland tropical storm.

Again, it makes me wonder if the cyclone might have been stronger than operationally assessed at landfall. I'm sure the NHC is going to do thorough postanalysis on this, and it will be interesting to see if they make a posthumous upgrade to hurricane status (like they did for Cindy 2005). To be clear, I'm not suggesting this was a hurricane in TX-- I'm just wondering if it might have been at landfall, in MX.

 

[Karla Dorman]

Tornado warnings were issued for Johnson County, TX earlier today. No confirmed touchdown here, but reportedly a brief touchdown in Crowley, TX (north of us). Under tornado watches until 8:00 p.m. CDT. Over two inches of rain so far.

 

[Brandon Lawson]

You guys forget about the potential for spiral band tornadoes on a landfalling tropical storm particularly the right front quadrant. I may be checking it out tomorrow. David Douglas and Randy Denzer are down there north of Corpus at the moment as a band is moving in from off shore. They are also streaming on Tornadovideos.net

I'm still holding out hope for a few random storms to spin up some brief tornadoes. It may be unlikely, but these kind of events are highly unpredictable. The latest forecast track of the depression is right through southwest Oklahoma, which is close enough for me to go out simply to drive in the heavy rains.

Maybe not the greatest, but there's potential.
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...iew=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y