First High Risk of 2007

I'm going with March 4, eastern 1/3 OK, western 2/3 AR, northeastern TX, northwestern LA. Now that I've chosen a fairly early date, it probably won't happen until November.
 
April 7th over Arkansas/Tennessee in the Mississippi River Valley...kind of a random guess but it's a Saturday and not too far (relatively speaking) from Asheville :-)
 
Yea I think March 1st, 2007 being the first High risk is almost guaranteed given the current SPC convective outlook.
 
There definitely seems to be a pattern within recent years of the location of the first major tornado outbreak (pending.. but good chance w.r.t. 3-1-07). It was either last year or two years ago (maybe both years?) that there was a big outbreak across western TN. It wasnt a high risk outbreak but definitely the biggest outbreak since the start of the year (either 2005 or 2006). This actually aligns up with tornado statistics that shows the highest concentrated area of tornadoes (by month) in the SE US during the early months of the year. This area moves west towards OK through May and finally eastern Colorado by June, and then reaching the farthest north in August and early September in SD/MN. I saw graphics for these a few years ago, so it may be off slightly.. but generally it should be correct. If this year ends up being a "statistically normal" year late April and May should be interesting for those in TX/OK/KS. Of course, this is all statistics and if the last few years have taught me anything, its not to worship statistics.
 
Chris Rozoff said:
A 16 January forecast. Not bad! Regionwise and datewise. Are you in to horse racing?

I noticed a March 1st date posted before this one, but then I saw that the message was recently edited.

Edit: Sorry Charles - I was writing my post when you wrote yours. Therefore, just consider this a congratulatory post to Kyle's masterful prophecy.

Edit 2: Of course all this distracting weather stuff has to be occurring when I'm getting ready for my defense. I'm filing divorce papers (to the atmosphere).
Click to expand...

What do I win?...J/k

Why cannot I be this lucky playing the Lottery?
 
If you played the lottery, you would feel only worse!! missing out on the big win by one number!!! :P

Maybe things are looking up with such an early start to the 'season' ??
 
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