First High Risk of 2007

We've done this for a few years now, so lets continue. Guess when you think the first High risk will be.

For me....

March 8 Central TX
 
February 11, Arkansas. Justified by a massive tornado outbreak that strikes OK, AR, MO, LA, and TX. Intense supercells followed by a derecho and a nocturnal outbreak points east.

First February High Risk ever!!
 
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First February High Risk ever!!

Sorry, Jim!

ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 101945
MKC AC 101945

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 101930Z - 111200Z

REF WW NUMBER 0027...VALID TIL 2100Z
REF WW NUMBER 0028...VALID TIL 2200Z
REF WW NUMBER 0029...VALID TIL 0100Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WSW GLS 30 N HOU 20 SW LFK 40 NW POE 30 NNE HEZ 30 NNW LUL
40 SE MEI 20 WNW PNS.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 N GGG 30 NW HOT MEM TUP 45 SE MEI 30 NNW LUL 30 NNE HEZ
45 NW POE 20 SW LFK 35 N GGG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WNW PNS 45 SE MEI TUP MEM 30 NW HOT 35 NNW LIT 20 E JBR
45 WSW BNA 35 W CHA AUO 10 SE AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE PSX
25 ENE CLL 40 E ACT DAL 30 W MLC UMN SGF 45 SSE SZL 20 NNW SZL
40 NE MKC 30 SW P35 3OI 25 W OTM 15 SSE ALO DBQ MMO 20 SW LAF LUK
35 E LEX 25 SE TYS 35 WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E BLI 45 E PDX
25 WSW LMT 40 NW UKI.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM SERN NM SEWD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER HAS
BEGUN TO LIFT NEWD PER LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES. THE INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FALLING SURFACE
PRESSURES ACROSS SERN TX DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE
LOW APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED SW OF LFK ALONG STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NERN TX /SRN AR. COLD FRONT SOUTH OF SURFACE
LOW IS SURGING RAPIDLY EWD AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS INTO THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY
LARGE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES CENTERED NEAR SAT.

SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO INCREASING UVV/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. VERY STRONG
DYNAMICAL FORCING...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EXTREME VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE FROM EXTREME ERN TX EWD INTO MS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN TX WL CONTINUE TO MOVE
RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACRS LA/SRN AR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MS/SERN LA
AROUND 00Z. STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 30-40 KT HAVE
ADVECTED DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN ADVANCE OF STORMS.
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
LOWER/MID 70S...CAPES RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG SERN TX/SWRN LA.
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST VERTICAL SOUNDINGS FOR MODERATE/HIGH RISK AREA...VERIFIED
BY VAD WIND PROFILES AT LCH AND IAH...SHOW VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
VEERING WINDS /50-70 KT/ RESULTING IN LONG CYCLONICALLY CURVED
HODOGRAPHS. DEPENDING ON ACTUAL STORM MOTIONS...STORM RELATIVE
HELICITIES VARY FROM 400 TO 800 M**2/S**2. THE PRONOUNCED PRESSURE
RISE/FALL COUPLET OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS WILL BACK AND ENHANCE THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS CREATING A FAVORABLE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT FOR
ROTATING STORMS. ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A
SQUALL LINE...FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE FLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS/SUPERCELLS/ WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW VERY STRONG TORNADOES. BOW ECHOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN
THE LINE AND WITH VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT...VERY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS MAY OCCUR. THE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
PTNS OF TN/AL LATE TNGT WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL.

..IMY.. 02/10/98
 
March 30th - DDC - OKC - AMA. I am calling a bust. What is a tornado? In 40 years I will be telling my grandkids about storm chasing and they are going to be like "Wtf is a tornado???"
 
I'm thinking very similar to Justin... My guess: March 10th -- eastern TX, southern LA, and southern MS (a western Gulf coast, early spring, high shear, low instability high risk)
 
April 16th, 2007 will go down in history as the biggest BUST ever... May 9th,2007 will be the first high risk day for tornadoes, SE KS, W MO, NE OK. BTW hey angie March 13th is the 17th aniversary for the Hesston,KS monster F5 that struck in 90'.
 
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The next high risk will be in Alaska in 2030 as a massive warm front surges northward as a result of "Global Warming" and "El Nino". A dryline will push eastward into an area of +80F Td's with CAPE in excess of 6000J/KG and a weak to moderate CAP, leading to the development of several isolated supercells just east of the Kuskokwim mountain range. If that's not bad enough, gasoline will be completely depleted and since the car companies never persued alternative sources of energy, chasing will be left to those who manage to pedal the fastest.

Back to 2007 - the entire continental USA will be capped off by 700MB temps in excess of 20C... Sorry guys. LOL
 
This is going to be another weird year. No high risks that actually verify this year, although two will be issued. One in Kansas and western Oklahoma on April 8th and one on May 4th in Missouri. Both systems will be overly dynamic, however, and nothing chaseable will come out of either.
 
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