First High Risk of 2007

[Nick Parker]

April 30-May 1st Afternoon/Overnight supercell action in MO, AR, IL, Western KY, TN

Just a hunch.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I'll go with April 7 Illinois.

 

[Steve Miller]

April 3rd, Arkansas

 

[Paul Townsend]

May 16....neKS, seNE, swIA

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I'm thinking very similar to Justin... My guess: March 10th -- eastern TX, southern LA, and southern MS (a western Gulf coast, early spring, high shear, low instability high risk)

 

[David Wolfson]

I agree completely with Jeff. To make it interesting... what Jeff just said, except March 14th.

 

[Angie Norris]

I'll take March 13th...Little Rock to southeast MO to Paducah KY to Jackson TN to Winona MS.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

April 16th, 2007 will go down in history as the biggest BUST ever... May 9th,2007 will be the first high risk day for tornadoes, SE KS, W MO, NE OK. BTW hey angie March 13th is the 17th aniversary for the Hesston,KS monster F5 that struck in 90'.

 

[Robert Dewey]

The next high risk will be in Alaska in 2030 as a massive warm front surges northward as a result of "Global Warming" and "El Nino". A dryline will push eastward into an area of +80F Td's with CAPE in excess of 6000J/KG and a weak to moderate CAP, leading to the development of several isolated supercells just east of the Kuskokwim mountain range. If that's not bad enough, gasoline will be completely depleted and since the car companies never persued alternative sources of energy, chasing will be left to those who manage to pedal the fastest.

Back to 2007 - the entire continental USA will be capped off by 700MB temps in excess of 20C... Sorry guys. LOL

 

[Mike Peregrine]

This is going to be another weird year. No high risks that actually verify this year, although two will be issued. One in Kansas and western Oklahoma on April 8th and one on May 4th in Missouri. Both systems will be overly dynamic, however, and nothing chaseable will come out of either.

 

[Mike Theiss]

The first "High Risk" will be somewhere from Georgia to Central Florida on February 18th....

 

[Karen Politte]

March 11th
Louisiana
Arkansas
Mississippi

Jason that's my birthday!

For me:

Second half of March.
Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee.

I am not trying to pinpoint it down to a specific date as that's impossible (if fun). I'd rather stick with an acceptable timeframe in which I maximise my chances of being right. I'm sure we all remember last March.

KL

 

[Martin North]

15th March...Gulf States

LA, MS, AL & FL panhandle...

 

[Bill Hark]

I put my bet on May 2 for SW Oklahoma and Texas near Childress.

Bill Hark

 

[Brian Stertz]

I am wondering with all these epic/historical winter storms so far this winter...blizzards & ice storms...that I wonder if the cow pies will hit the fan this spring. Texas seems to be one place that seems to be carrying on the torch of severe wx this winter. I am wondering if this is the year of a very active dryline/warm fronts over N/C Texas - Oklahoma - Arklatex this spring...especially March and April. I guess time will tell how the Pacific storm parade will continue once temps start warming into March and April. I am still sticking firm with the April 10th guess...but may be hedging more towards the DFW Metroplex to Waco corridor more.