First High Risk of 2007

[Verne Carlson]

I'll say: Mar 10th in Missouri

 

[Bart_Comstock]

February 11, Arkansas. Justified by a massive tornado outbreak that strikes OK, AR, MO, LA, and TX. Intense supercells followed by a derecho and a nocturnal outbreak points east.

First February High Risk ever!!

I like the way you think! Granted that I am not saying I want to see masive property damage like we had here last year, but I wouldnt mind seeing a tornado in rual nothing on that date (or anyother date). My guess is we wont see a High Risk untill Mid to late March, around the 15th or 25th.

 

[Carrie Halliday]

A stab in the dark....

April 1st, Action starts in Central TX, goes through NE TX and up into SE OK/SW AR. AR hit the hardest and in the dark.

 

[Rodney Harper]

I have to say March 8 NW AR, South MO, SE KS.

 

[Craig Maire II]

First High Risk

April 8th southern Iowa.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Sounds like 1999 all over again Craig...a chase day I will always remember !! This ranks as my #7 best chase of all-time. That day started out as a MDT risk for SW Iowa and then got bumped up to a HIGH risk.

http://vortex-times.com/4899chase

 

[Jim Cross]

April 25 Southcentral Kansas/Northcentral Oklahoma to Northeast Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas

 

[matt patterson]

March 21 Central Ok into Southern KS. Fast moving Sups with monster hail.

 

[Billy Griffin]

March 15th - western Washington. A very unusual weather pattern develops just off the Pacific Coast. With abundant low-level moisture, and unseasonably warm temperatures, coupled with vertical wind profiles condusive for severe weather, widely scattered severe storms will develop over far western Washington and race to the East. Large hail, damaging winds and isolated strong tornadoes will accompany this outbreak over a major metropolitan corridor!

A little SDS relief with humor!

 

[scott r currens]

I'll pick May 1, 2007 as a classic high risk Southern Plains tornado outbreak. The 1st is the only day during the month of May that I haven't chased. That and I can't recall any big events happening on that day.

 

[David Brookshier]

Hmmm lets see using my crystal sphere of the future... Yes I see visions the vorticies are converging in Texas! Yes a dryline advances from the west, CAPE values in excess of 5000jkg! The first high risk event will occur in Tarrant, Denton, Collin and Dallas Countys in north Texas on April 11th with a moderate risk extending into southern Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas. A chase right at home no roach infested hotels and high gas prices for me on that day.

 

[Brian Stertz]

I am of that same opinion David but a day earlier...I think April 10th will be that day...and agree yes North Texas (including the DFW Metroplex) is the danger zone ....Terrible Tuesday !!

 

[Chris Hayes]

First high risk will be on Memorial Day. High risk will cover western and central Oklahoma. Multiple slow moving classic supercells will drop upwards of 40 tornados. Majority will be well backlit, and several will be violent. This will be the start of a week of great chases across the central and southern plains, in areas that have been lacking the past few years. I just say this because I'll be out there for at least 3 weeks this year, including Memorial Day

 

[Morgan Palmer]

I will put March 27, eastern AR, northern LA and MS and western TN
ADD: Yeah, and that will, of course, be a real crappy chase event.

 

[Alexandre Aguiar]

As this winter in the US has been quite similar in pattern to our last winter over here and the first episode of severe weather in the third month of the winter took place around August 15th, I would say March 15.