FCST: 12/18/08-12/19/08 Central Plains / Upper Midwest Winter Storm

[Robert Dewey]

The 00Z NAM is quite a bit deeper than even the 18Z on the analysis and F06.

Looks like the 00Z NAM is pretty consistent with the 18Z NAM... a touch further south, though. Interesting to note that the 00Z NAM actually starts off deeper than the 6HR 18Z forecast.

Looking at the radar, lightning plot, and models... I'm going to say 7-14 inches for southern WI into lower MI.

 

[Joel Wright]

Sleet and freezing rain here right now. A few big wet flakes mixing in from time to time. Looks like a big sleetstorm for areas along I-80. Heavy snow just north.

 

[Robert Dewey]

GFS coming in to support the 00Z NAM. DTX now saying that they expect us to be on the high-end of their snowfall forecast of 6-10 inches. The radar and lightning plots are looking pretty impressive.

 

[David Draun]

I love KLOTs 8:55PM AFD, especially the ending part of it.

00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS ALSO VERIFYING NWP SUGGESTION OF A COUPLED
UPPER JET STRUCTURE WITH DEPARTING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
SUPERIMPOSING WITH LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF APPROACHING UPPER JET
OVER KS/NB JOINING UP TO ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
ASCENT... AIDING SYNOPTIC LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN IL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BETWEEN 07-12Z.

ALMOST NEEDLESS TO SAY... THIS WILL BE A PARALYZING STORM.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I love KLOTs 8:55PM AFD, especially the ending part of it.

00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS ALSO VERIFYING NWP SUGGESTION OF A COUPLED
UPPER JET STRUCTURE WITH DEPARTING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
SUPERIMPOSING WITH LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF APPROACHING UPPER JET
OVER KS/NB JOINING UP TO ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
ASCENT... AIDING SYNOPTIC LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN IL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BETWEEN 07-12Z.

ALMOST NEEDLESS TO SAY... THIS WILL BE A PARALYZING STORM.

Good explanation... but a bit of a run-on sentence? lol

 

[cstrunk]

Here in extreme SW IA, we are mostly done with any significant precipitation. We ended up with probably 0.25" of freezing rain and a little bit of sleet. We did not get as much ice as I thought we would. Watching the radar, it seemed as though we were caught up in a lot of breaks in the precipitation, and now the dry slot which is working its' way north. Only real chance for any other precip will be in the deformation band as it wraps on through, even then, I'm only expecting around a half inch of snow.

It is still very treacherous outside, but nowhere near as bad as it could have been.

It looks like Illinois is in the process of getting walloped.

 

[David Draun]

Victor Gensini on Spotter Network is reporting pea-size sleet pellets falling in central IL. Glazing is already fairly dangerous as well.

 

[Chris Allington]

Watched the storm from Southern Sarpy county, NE as the heavier convective precip came in. Got about .25 inches of glaze, especially on east facing surfaces and about and 1.5 inches of sleet pellets on top of that. At one point lightning and thunder were frequent with pea sized ice pellets raining down and creating some interesting sounds. Here at my apartment in midtown Omaha we had just a slight glaze with about 2 inches of ice pellets. Awaiting a couple pretty intense bands of sleet and snow after midnight with about 1-3 more inches possible. The roads are quite a mess where the heavier feezing rain fell.

 

[jshields]

yeah i'm here in NW omaha, basically near benington. the precip has really let up since about 10, with basically just patchy freezing drizzle. there was a burst of heavy snow with big fluffy flakes from about 915-945, but thats been about it for snow. the rest has been sleet and a little freezing drizzle. looking out my front window at the street light and the smaller maple tree in my front yard i can see icicles hanging off the street light and the bare branches on the tree are shiny with the glaze of ice on them. good thing it isn't windy or they might be a few probs with power outages. looks like there might be about 3 more hours of off and on precip in the deformation band so here we prob won't end up with more than 2-3" of snow. kindof disappointed!! up in ne nebraska and nw iowa around sioux city looks to have gotten hit pretty hard. wonder what the amounts will look like tomorrow? oh yeah we had about 3-5 good flashes of lightning around 8ish too with a couple of claps of thunder!

 

[Penny Lehner]

Here in Fort Dodge, IA it started snowing about 9 pm. It is now 1 am and we have at least 5" of snow. (I have already been out in it and I'm not going back out just to read my snow gauge. It stinks out there. ) Now I am just waiting to see how much total snow we get. At least it is the light, fluffy kind. Easy to shovel.

 

[jshields]

Sioux City and Sheldon, IA had 10" from this storm. Norfolk and areas in northeast NE had about 8". here in omaha, we ended up with about 2-4" of mainly sleet with a little snow on top. almost impossible to shovel!! also according to the reports from the sioux city airport, that 10" of snow fell over only about 5-6 hours!

 

[Robert Dewey]

Finally stopped here... total is 11.5 inches... Washington Township reporting 12 inches.

 

[Penny Lehner]

My snow gauge read 8.5" of snow. And there is more predicted for tomorrow with blizzard watches already being posted.

Someone needs to send some global warming my way.

 

[Jim Saueressig]

Well we lucked out on frozen precip but last night we must have had some strange winds. In the last 3 years we have had some hellacious winds and I had never lost a single shingle on my house even when the house next to me had some 20 feet or so ripped off during a storm last year but last night I lost 10 foot of ridge cap (architectural 30 year) and they shingles were laying on both the ground on the East side of the house and on the roof on the West side?? It ripped em right up pulling them through the nails.

 

[Danny Neal]

2-3 inches of snow here, .3 of ice. Was an interesting storm, but once again was in the middle of two extremes.