Jim Saueressig
EF5
We have had a Freezing Rain Advisory placed over much of the area for the storm coming in tomorrow.
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FCST: 12/18/08-12/19/08 Central Plains / Upper Midwest Winter Storm
- Thread starter cstrunk
- Start date
Robert Dewey
EF5
During the GRR conference call, they showed the internal snowfall graphic with widespread 18 inches from SE WI through NY.
Southward trend continues... looks like all snow as far south as DTW now.
Southward trend continues... looks like all snow as far south as DTW now.
Matthew Harding
EF1
Wow....I read in Albany's Winter Storm Watch product that they are expecting 7-14" in some of the same areas that got plastered by ice last week so this storm will definitely not help recovery efforts up there. I wouldn't be surprised to see some areas getting 18", especially once you add in the lake effect component.
jshields
wow, whats up with the 18Z NAM? it's way drier than previous runs especially over central plains. it doesn't even really develop widespread precip until 0Z Friday now.
theres still decent qpf in illinois, wisconsin, and points east though...... At least the 18Z GFS is consistent with its 12Z run and has continued the colder trend. the office here in omaha is holding onto the w.s. watch while points to the east have upgraded to warnings already.
theres still decent qpf in illinois, wisconsin, and points east though...... At least the 18Z GFS is consistent with its 12Z run and has continued the colder trend. the office here in omaha is holding onto the w.s. watch while points to the east have upgraded to warnings already.
Darren Addy
EF5
Nebraska's Forecast Discussion is fascinating reading, with the Hastings office being especially verbose. The "significant ice event" is far more interesting (and dangerous) than snow, to me.
Looks to me like the Missouri Valley region from Omaha to St. Joe will get significant ice, which (if it comes to pass) would make I29 especially dangerous Thurs. night.
Looks to me like the Missouri Valley region from Omaha to St. Joe will get significant ice, which (if it comes to pass) would make I29 especially dangerous Thurs. night.
Aaron Gerhardt
EF0
This storm is looking to be pretty significant in my area (Eastern Iowa). I see the latest runs shifted the ZR line south a bit and backed off some accumulation, but still looking at close to 10" by Friday in Cedar Rapids and my home town, and close to a foot in east-central Iowa.
We're going to drive down to SE Iowa and go for the ZR event and stream on that. It's for sure going to be very interesting.
I was talking to our chief meteorologist regarding the 18z, and some offices said to disregard it, didn't think of asking why.
We're going to drive down to SE Iowa and go for the ZR event and stream on that. It's for sure going to be very interesting.
I was talking to our chief meteorologist regarding the 18z, and some offices said to disregard it, didn't think of asking why.
Joel Wright
EF5
Still awaiting the new GFS, but as expected the overall trend today was to push everything south in agreement to the Euro. Nice band of heavy snow will lay down over about the north half of IA into southern WI, northern IL and into lower MI. A significant icestorm still looks likely near or just south of the I-80 corridor from IA to northern IN. The real question is how much sleet will be involved in some of these areas. Sleet could cut down on glazing in areas that see quite a bit of it.
Bill Schintler
EF4
Winter storm on Thursday through Friday
A dangerous winter storm will bring a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow to the Upper Midwest starting Thursday afternoon. A major ice storm is likely in eastern and central IA south of US-30 through early Friday morning before a transition to snow. Further north the precipitation will fall as all snow. Looking ahead, two more winter storms will bring snow to the area. The first hits Saturday evening while a second storm arrives Monday evening. The following are forecasts for specific locations in Minnesota and eastern Iowa for Thursday’s event:
Twin Cities, MN:
Snow will start at 6 PM Thursday, and accumulate to 3.7 inches before ending Friday morning.
St. Cloud, MN:
Snow will start at 7 PM Thursday, and accumulate to 3.1 inches before ending Friday morning.
Duluth, MN:
Snow will start at 9 PM Thursday, and accumulate to 3.0 inches before ending Friday evening.
Cedar Rapids (Eastern IA Airport), IA:
Freezing rain and sleet will start at 3 PM Thursday with 0.4 inches of ice accumulation before a transition to snow early Friday morning. Snow will accumulate to 4.3 inches on top of the ice.
North Linn Co. (Paris and Coggon), IA:
Freezing rain, snow, and sleet will start at 3:30 PM Thursday with 0.25 inches of ice accumulation before a transition to snow early Friday morning. Snow will accumulate to 6.7 inches on top of the ice.
Iowa City, IA:
Freezing rain and sleet will start at 2:30 PM Thursday with 0.6 inches of ice accumulation before a transition to snow early Friday morning. Snow will accumulate to 1.8 inches on top of the ice. Thunderstorms with freezing rain will be possible during the evening.
Marengo, IA:
Freezing rain and sleet will start at 2:30 PM Thursday with 0.5 inches of ice accumulation before a transition to snow early Friday morning. Snow will accumulate to 2.9 inches on top of the ice. Thunderstorms with freezing rain will be possible during the evening.
Union, IA:
Freezing rain and sleet will start at 2 PM Thursday with 0.2 inches of ice accumulation before a transition to snow early Friday morning. Snow will accumulate to 4.6 inches on top of the ice.
Discussion - IA:
A very challenging FCST today, with multiple winter precipitation types along with small-scale areas of enhanced precipitation of concern. Models are most likely underestimating the strength of the cold pool near the SFC and have trended S with temperature profiles as they’re finally picking up on the snow pack. Models have been consistent with the track of the SFC/H85/H7 lows and have slowed down the H85/H7 solutions slightly. The H85 low tracks essentially along I-80 from just S of OAX at 06Z to DVN at 14Z Friday. The H85 0C isotherm pushes N to US-30. The WRF pushes the H85 freezing line all the way N to the US-20 before cooling the layer several degrees with the precipitation onset due to evaporative cooling. The latest WRF slows the precipitation onset and takes the SFC track about 40 miles further N with little change in H85/H7 tracks. The SFC low tracks NE through MO and reaches Macomb, IL by 12Z Friday.
Impressive divergence is noted with an H3 fanning-diffluent pattern between 00Z and 12Z Friday. QG convergence is strongest in ERN and NERN IA, with good isentropic upglide along the 285-295 K SFCs. Elevated convection will be likely S of I-80 given strong H85 convergence and moderate mid-level lapse rates of 6.5C/km. N/S cross sections indicate impressive slantwise convection between I-80 and US-30. Significant storm total QPF in excess of one inch is FCST, but could be even higher where convection occurs. 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates will be likely N of US-30 given degree of lift and potential banding.
Discussion – MN:
The active winter pattern will continue through next week with another in a parade of systems FCST to bring accumulating snowfall to MN Thursday and Friday. The WRF is most bullish with QPF, with 0.4 to 0.5 inches noted over SRN MN. Isentropic develops over SRN MN by Thursday afternoon, with 2 to 4 g/kg of mixing ratio working N to US-212 along 285-300k/gk SFCs. Looking at the 1000-500mb thickness trends, the 5400 dm contour pushes N of US-20 in ERN IA by Thursday afternoon.
- bill
9:50 PM CST, 12/17/08
A dangerous winter storm will bring a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow to the Upper Midwest starting Thursday afternoon. A major ice storm is likely in eastern and central IA south of US-30 through early Friday morning before a transition to snow. Further north the precipitation will fall as all snow. Looking ahead, two more winter storms will bring snow to the area. The first hits Saturday evening while a second storm arrives Monday evening. The following are forecasts for specific locations in Minnesota and eastern Iowa for Thursday’s event:
Twin Cities, MN:
Snow will start at 6 PM Thursday, and accumulate to 3.7 inches before ending Friday morning.
St. Cloud, MN:
Snow will start at 7 PM Thursday, and accumulate to 3.1 inches before ending Friday morning.
Duluth, MN:
Snow will start at 9 PM Thursday, and accumulate to 3.0 inches before ending Friday evening.
Cedar Rapids (Eastern IA Airport), IA:
Freezing rain and sleet will start at 3 PM Thursday with 0.4 inches of ice accumulation before a transition to snow early Friday morning. Snow will accumulate to 4.3 inches on top of the ice.
North Linn Co. (Paris and Coggon), IA:
Freezing rain, snow, and sleet will start at 3:30 PM Thursday with 0.25 inches of ice accumulation before a transition to snow early Friday morning. Snow will accumulate to 6.7 inches on top of the ice.
Iowa City, IA:
Freezing rain and sleet will start at 2:30 PM Thursday with 0.6 inches of ice accumulation before a transition to snow early Friday morning. Snow will accumulate to 1.8 inches on top of the ice. Thunderstorms with freezing rain will be possible during the evening.
Marengo, IA:
Freezing rain and sleet will start at 2:30 PM Thursday with 0.5 inches of ice accumulation before a transition to snow early Friday morning. Snow will accumulate to 2.9 inches on top of the ice. Thunderstorms with freezing rain will be possible during the evening.
Union, IA:
Freezing rain and sleet will start at 2 PM Thursday with 0.2 inches of ice accumulation before a transition to snow early Friday morning. Snow will accumulate to 4.6 inches on top of the ice.
Discussion - IA:
A very challenging FCST today, with multiple winter precipitation types along with small-scale areas of enhanced precipitation of concern. Models are most likely underestimating the strength of the cold pool near the SFC and have trended S with temperature profiles as they’re finally picking up on the snow pack. Models have been consistent with the track of the SFC/H85/H7 lows and have slowed down the H85/H7 solutions slightly. The H85 low tracks essentially along I-80 from just S of OAX at 06Z to DVN at 14Z Friday. The H85 0C isotherm pushes N to US-30. The WRF pushes the H85 freezing line all the way N to the US-20 before cooling the layer several degrees with the precipitation onset due to evaporative cooling. The latest WRF slows the precipitation onset and takes the SFC track about 40 miles further N with little change in H85/H7 tracks. The SFC low tracks NE through MO and reaches Macomb, IL by 12Z Friday.
Impressive divergence is noted with an H3 fanning-diffluent pattern between 00Z and 12Z Friday. QG convergence is strongest in ERN and NERN IA, with good isentropic upglide along the 285-295 K SFCs. Elevated convection will be likely S of I-80 given strong H85 convergence and moderate mid-level lapse rates of 6.5C/km. N/S cross sections indicate impressive slantwise convection between I-80 and US-30. Significant storm total QPF in excess of one inch is FCST, but could be even higher where convection occurs. 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates will be likely N of US-30 given degree of lift and potential banding.
Discussion – MN:
The active winter pattern will continue through next week with another in a parade of systems FCST to bring accumulating snowfall to MN Thursday and Friday. The WRF is most bullish with QPF, with 0.4 to 0.5 inches noted over SRN MN. Isentropic develops over SRN MN by Thursday afternoon, with 2 to 4 g/kg of mixing ratio working N to US-212 along 285-300k/gk SFCs. Looking at the 1000-500mb thickness trends, the 5400 dm contour pushes N of US-20 in ERN IA by Thursday afternoon.
- bill
9:50 PM CST, 12/17/08
Robert Dewey
EF5
It is interesting that the 00Z NAM has reverted back. I'd go with that solution, as supported by the GEM models. GFS is pretty similar to the previous runs, but is really trimming back the QPF... barely reaching an inch over most areas.
jshields
The 0Z GFS is continuing with its track and precip amts from the 18Z run, if not even setting up a heavier band of precip back into central NE, that used to not be there. The NAM is still drier and further north than the GFS with the warmer temps and thus the snowfall axis. looking at the wfo's, most of them are discounting the NAM. it's looking more and more like like eastern NE could get 3-6" of snow after the sleet/frz rain tom afternoon, with NC Iowa 5-8", and NE Iowa to Southern Wisconsin getting 9-14". Southern Iowa still looks like the main target for the heaviest ice amounts. I'm interested to see how much convection gets going over these areas as well as that could of course drastically increase snow and ice amounts. Can't wait to see how it pans out tomorrow! My wife is a school teacher and is hoping for no school on friday to start the christmas break earlier!
cstrunk
EF3
I'm headed from Ames, IA to Shenandoah, IA late tomorrow morning. I'm going to try to miss the worst part of the storm and squeak home before it gets really nasty outside. Forecasts are calling of up to 0.5" of freezing rain by Thursday evening. I'm hoping the significant icing waits until after noon tomorrow so I can have a decent trip home.
Once I'm home, I hope the power holds out!
Once I'm home, I hope the power holds out!
Darren Addy
EF5
I'm still on the learning curve of the winter weather stuff (heck, the other seasons too) but it appears that the significant ice will follow a combination of below freezing surface temperatures, combined with above freezing 850mb levels and the addition of enough moisture. While Nebraska will see some sleet today in advance of the real action, the real moisture is supposed to advect into SE Nebraska beginning around 3:00 PM. The jet max gets here in early evening. THUNDER-snow/sleet/freezing rain is mentioned as being possible between 5:00 PM and 1:00 AM. (Note: I'm concentrating on Nebraska, but that doesn't mean it is the only place that will be affected. SW IA, NE KS, NW MO may be affected even more.)
Also worth watching for is the development of a frontogenetic band. If that occurs, the areas affected could see significantly more moisture than unaffected areas, as it acts as a "snow fence" in the sky.
Should be an interesting day/evening, but a dangerous one if you have to be in a vehicle in the affected areas. Take care everyone!
Also worth watching for is the development of a frontogenetic band. If that occurs, the areas affected could see significantly more moisture than unaffected areas, as it acts as a "snow fence" in the sky.
Should be an interesting day/evening, but a dangerous one if you have to be in a vehicle in the affected areas. Take care everyone!
Dustin Wilcox
EF5
I haven't been following this too close, and when I have just for my area, but WOW; NAM has 5+ inches falling in a 3 hr period between 9 and 12 Tonight, from a line from Fremont to Lincoln and Points North-East, areas South of that will see freezing rain, the totals might be a tad overdone, however with the warm air advection and the WF JUST to the South of that area, *Thunder Snow* can't be ruled out...
3hr precip... http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_SNOWFALL_18HR.gif
12Z NAM Total...
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_21HR.gif
You Can see the WF really well here, from about Beatrice ENE; SC IA (esp. Just south of DMX) is straight up screwed!! They stay WELL below freezing at the surface but easily warm in a pretty large chunck of the profile, including just off the surface, some areas could easily see an 1" of ice likely more...
http://grib2.com/animate/nam218nojava.php3?fcsthour=15&type=850_GPHTMPRH®ion=C-PLAINS
3hr precip... http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_SNOWFALL_18HR.gif
12Z NAM Total...
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_21HR.gif
You Can see the WF really well here, from about Beatrice ENE; SC IA (esp. Just south of DMX) is straight up screwed!! They stay WELL below freezing at the surface but easily warm in a pretty large chunck of the profile, including just off the surface, some areas could easily see an 1" of ice likely more...
http://grib2.com/animate/nam218nojava.php3?fcsthour=15&type=850_GPHTMPRH®ion=C-PLAINS
Mike Kovalchick
EF3
With the new 12Z GFS & NAM out continuing earlier model trends..looks like Southern Lower Michigan is in for a quick hitting 10" or so tomorrow morning over a wide area from approximately GRR to Flint and points South to the Indiana border.
Robert Dewey
EF5
12Z NAM shows extremely intense vv's at 700mb for a 6-8 hour period over southern MI... along a developing TROWAL and strengthening mid-level frontogenesis. EPV also goes negative at that time, with very low stability (possibly a hint of convective instability).
Given the strength of all of this, I can't imagine there won't be thundersnow... especially from southern WI into MI through NY.
I'm going to go with GRR's previous forecast of 8-14 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.
Given the strength of all of this, I can't imagine there won't be thundersnow... especially from southern WI into MI through NY.
I'm going to go with GRR's previous forecast of 8-14 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.
