FAQ: Chasing the Southwestern Monsoon

[Susan Strom]

Up there you do seem to get the storms during the daytime. Watch for an H over the NW corner of AZ and perhaps those synoptics will bring a second wave of storms, at night, that flow from northeast AZ/Navajo Nation SW toward Flag. I learned that from NWS Bellemont, although I would have to be up there already, staying in Sedona or Flag. In Cottonwood, you are a lot closer to that potential action. I have quick access to the Mogollon Rim, Eastern Mountains and Central Deserts. The Central Deserts are very active at night.

Good nighttime action can also be found in the Bradshaws. However most of the roads are dirt and washboardy, but you can get stuff over the range.

Cottonwood is a nice town. I recently shot a segment with the TWC Road Crew right there in Cottonwood. Except I wouldn't recommend chasing on Mingus Mountain...one of the gnarliest roads in the State lol. That would be one for your diary

 

[Will Wilkens]

Josh, I live in SoCal and I track the monsoon season obsessively ;-)....I watched some gnarly storms on GRL3 and satellite form just north of Prescott last couple of summers and they move to the SW. Are these the same type of scenarios that you expect yet haven't seen in three years? I remember one summer a few years ago tracking some massive MCS complexes between Prescott and Sedona and it just tore me up not to be there to see them first hand. I'm planning to ramp up my chases and photo opportunites this summer in Az. I expect a lot of smiles and very little sleep... ;-)

 

[Will Wilkens]

Oh, Susan.... My buddy Gerry and I are planning a 4 day chase excursion based out of Tuscon. We are targeting the last week of July or first week of August (a Friday-Monday). Since we both followed the seemingly endless nocturnal action last summer we are hoping for the same experience. You mention the central deserts being the best for the nocturnals. Gerry's sister lives in Chandler, so would this be a better base area and where do you recommend to fan out from there if so?

 

[Will Wilkens]

Susan, forgive me for my post-fest here, but I have a question: I don't have much info on the effects that La Nina has on the NA Monsoon, although I do have diaries and hand-written personal "blogs" on past monsoon seasons in SoCal going back to the early 80's (yikes I'm not THAT old!) but I was wondering if you remember anything about how the NA Monsoon is affected by La Nina as it pertains to Az in particular, since we are currently in a La Nina......

 

[Susan Strom]

Hi Will,

Regarding Monsoon 2008 yes it was spectacular. My second best year ever, for lightning and haboob photos, just behind 1999.

I guess it depends on one's perspective. There is also a Facebook page called "I survived the Arizona Monsoon 2008" or something to that effect. There was a lot of heavy damage with the August storms of '08, so I'm assuming these are people talking about the effects.

As for whether Tucson or Chandler would be a better chase-base, that depends on the time of year. If it is early, June/early July, I would say Tucson. By mid July the monsoon is up in Phoenix and I think PHX is more favorable for more chances for night storms. Chandler is good because it is in the SE Valley and that tends to get hammered more often.

Either Chandler or Tucson has about equal access to the Central Deserts.

Re: La Nina... it seems that La Nina years are hotter and drier, but that doesn't seem to make a difference to me because I'll go anywhere in the state for the lightning. If the deserts are dry, I'll go to the Mogollon Rim, which is a pine forest. The Rim is a lightning magnet. If the northern half of the state is dry, then I'll head to Benson/Willcox/Tombstone or Bisbee because the SE corner of the state gets the most generous monsoon flow. There are many factors, not just synoptics too, that help generate storms. I could write a huge page on favorite hot spots, but let me know if I answered your questions

5 months and counting!

 

[J. Sims]

Josh, I live in SoCal and I track the monsoon season obsessively ;-)....I watched some gnarly storms on GRL3 and satellite form just north of Prescott last couple of summers and they move to the SW. Are these the same type of scenarios that you expect yet haven't seen in three years? I remember one summer a few years ago tracking some massive MCS complexes between Prescott and Sedona and it just tore me up not to be there to see them first hand. I'm planning to ramp up my chases and photo opportunites this summer in Az. I expect a lot of smiles and very little sleep... ;-)

Thats the kinda stuff i like but southwests is the opposite way from where I live. Well if it forms near Prescott anyway. And when the storms form over Sedona they seem to head too far west to hit town. Having no car has made it hard to chase.

I won't be in Arizona for this years monsoons I will be in Kansas. Which reminds me I'm moving in six weeks.
I can't wait to be in tornado alley.

 

[Susan Strom]

Good luck in Kansas! The SW part is my favorite chase area in the Plains. Tri-cities - Garden/Liberal/Dodge. Careful out there though, unlike Arizona where there is far less worry of funnels dropping in the dark while shooting lightning, not so is the case in Kansas. Pretty gnarly times, at night in Kansas.

I understand lightning sparked a wildfire which was spotted Weds 4/22 in Sedona (Red Rock Secret Mtn Wilderness). It is called the Bear Fire, still burning, although not very large I don't think. Earlier this week I did notice some early-season Cb-looking cloud tops up your way (causing slight pre-season excitement I must admit). Although it is not Monsoon season yet, there must have been a spark or two that came out of those, which wouldn't surprise me as just about anything convective should be considered electrified out here.

Monsoon should be along in just 8 weeks or so; a bit earlier for the SE corner of Arizona. I am looking so forward to it!

 

[Will Wilkens]

Susan, we had some excitement on Wed in SoCal with some surprise monsoon-like activity across the mtns near Los Angeles and all across the Mojave Desert. Nothing severe but it was awesome to see the massive towering storms looming over the nearby mountains. I also read the CPC report that southeast AZ will have an enhanced monsoon this year. Very exciting news!

 

[Susan Strom]

LA can get the lightning at times. I saw spectacular CGs once while driving through the Inland Empire late one night, and air strikes around Palm Springs at 4am. If I lived in LA I would head over to that windpower field in Palm Springs and try for that valley with CGs, from a safe place of course because all those hundreds of towers could be a CG mine field. Still though, what a sight!

Hey what are your monsoon hot spots relative to Indio, Springs, Chiriaco Summit, Ford Dry Lake and those areas? Would September be the best shot? Sept, late in the monsoon season, seems to be the best shot at anything in my western deserts Quartzsite, Parker, Ehrenberg at the Calif state line. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Lightning in Arizona is just 6 weeks away. I can't wait!

 

[Will Wilkens]

We got quite a few hotspots out here, in fact, and most are very consistent. Because of the geography and proximity to the coast, convergence zones created by the clash of the monsoon surge and the sea breezes will fire storms even when Az is quiet. In a nutshell here is a breakdown of what we got, relative to the areas you are asking:

Indio:
a) just to the southwest in a notch-like valley in the the mtns is the town of Anza. Storms will fire just to its south near Anza-Borrego and Warner Springs and migrate north/northwest right over Anza. A very consistent hot spot. You can park and wait. It's that easy.
b) a little farther to the north is 29 Palms/Joshua Tree - a very reliable hot spot. Storms here tend to be a more severe and flash flooding is a regular occurance.

Chiriaco Summit: east of here there is a hot spot that runs from the south of Desert Center and then north into the eastern foothills of Joshua Tree National Park, and then farther north out into the open desert between Amboy and Ludlow.

If you dare venture farther northwest and even north, here are a few reliable hotpots that are also a sure bet during most monsoon surge events:

Victorville/Adelanto - along Rt 395 and points west near Phelan/El Mirage Dry Lake/Lake Los Angeles
Barstow - from town to Ludlow along I-40, and to Afton Canyon along I-15 - good severe potential here
Lucerne Valley - along Barstow Rd north of town
Mountain Pass - along 1-15 between Baker and Stateline. A lot of nocturnal activity here and severe potential

Hope this helps. And yes! 6 weeks! And if all goes well. maybe end of May!

 

[Susan Strom]

Excellent list of hot spots in the SoCal desert zones. Thank you!

I'm assuming primarily that those would be more active with the lightning, high winds, blowing sand, rain torrents and other Monsoon-related action. I had a feeling about Chiriaco. Last time I was there I was nearly blown off my feet.

What is your best timeframe for those areas?

 

[Greg Campbell]

The CPC prediction is most welcome!

Factor #4 seems to imply the possibility of an earlier-than-average arrival. Or am I just seeing things?

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="535"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="275">[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CPC's precipitation outlook for June, July and August 2009 calls for enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation for southeast Arizona. There are several reasons for this. 1) an intensifying drought over the central and southern Plains; 2) below normal mountains snowpack in the central Rockies this past winter; 3) a developing dipole of below normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Caribbean and above normal SSTs off the southern coast of Mexico ; 4) two separate ensemble climate/long range model suites are forecasting a rapid development of the monsoon high in May, followed by a rapid northward advance. If this northward advance [/FONT]</td> <td align="center" valign="middle" width="260"></td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="275">[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]of the high occurs as expected, it would[/FONT]</td> <td align="center" valign="middle" width="260">[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Click image to enlarge[/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" valign="top">[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] result in a shift in our winds from predominately westerly to easterly or southeasterly. This shift in the winds transports moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, Mexico and the Gulf of California or even the Plains.[/FONT]

</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[Will Wilkens]

Greg, you are right! I saw that too! If I am not mistaken, #3 also suggests an early development of an El Nino scenario. Hmmm...interesting.

 

[Will Wilkens]

Susan, I forgot to answer your timeframe question twice in a row now... sorry about that

Most of the time, here in SoCal the monsoons peak in late August and early September, right around the Memorial Day weekend timeframe. But I regulary see strong surge events in mid-late July, and again first to middle part of Aug. Sometimes we get a really good first event in late June/early July, like we did in '07. And then there are a few mid/late Sept final surges which can be very strong and take storms right to the coast.
All of these events can last many days, and sometimes weeks with only a few days of calm in between. It's all about troughing over the Pacific off the Washington coast. Keeping those troughs farther west out to sea means the monsoon flow dominates in SoCal.

Now, how to I take control of those dang troughs?

Cheers!

 

[Will Wilkens]

Looks like NWS Tuscon fired up their monsoon tracking models:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/monsoon/monsoon_tracker.php