Fall Snow Storm 10-10-08 ?

[Gerrit Gulden]

I have heard from all of the locals here in Southeast Idaho that Snow has occured as early as Halloween around these parts. Well my Local National Weather service is already mentioning a possibility of snow this friday down to the valley floors 4500 elevation. This would be quite an early snow for these parts. Of course I havent researched the earliest date for a snow storm around these parts, however, in the 3 years that I have lived here this will be the first year that we will have had a snow storm this early. I am not aware of total accumulation estimates, yet can definetely say a chill is in the air and if it remains, especially when this coming storm is from the Gulf of Alaska it just yells "cold and snowy".

Anyone else's NWS mentioning a possible snow/freezing rain/freezing temps where you are?

If indeed I get snow, I will post pictures on this thread.

-gerrit

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I've been pondering a Yellowstone trip for a while now, and might make the trip out there for this system...so I've been following it a little.

The GFS has been stuck in its shove it on out too fast mode, with barely a storm. Meanwhile ECMWF holds firm in a strong western US system. GFS lately has been making steps towards ECMWF. I'm more and more enticed by this one.

12z ECMWF just came out....

Looks like some decently cold air settles in ahead of it. Someone could get dumped on I imagine, with a big slow moving system such as this.


This morning's Riverton WY AFD about it....


[FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MODELS STARTING TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE TOWARDS EACH
OTHER EVEN AS FAR APART AS THEY ARE. WORST CASE SCENARIO IS FOR A
DEEP UPPER CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH DEEP SURFACE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN
AND NEAR THE EAST AND NORTH SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND COOLER THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME THE PAST
SEVERAL NIGHTS AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FOOT OR MORE SNOWFALL IN THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS...ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS...WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS AND CASPER MOUNTAIN AREA.
FOOTHILLS AROUND BUFFALO...CODY...THERMOPOLIS...CASPER AND LANDER
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. AT THIS TIME FORECAST
TEMPERATURES MAKE A RAIN SNOW MIX BELOW 6000 FEET. THIS SHOULD BE
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIME PERIOD WHERE
MORE COOLING AND MORE PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED CITIES.[/FONT]

 

[Chad Cowan]

You know that the second season is over when Mike H looks at a trough like that and thinks 'snow chase!'

 

[Greg Campbell]

I've been pondering a Yellowstone trip for a while now, and might make the trip out there for this system...so I've been following it a little.

(Please pardon the thread hijack.)

Keep in mind that the National Park Service is VERY conservative about road closures. A few inches of snow in the passes is all it takes to shut the roads.

A friend and I visited Jellystone last year, in early Oct. We barely got in between two minor storms, and were nearly stranded at Old Faithful Lodge when a whole inch fell overnight.

That said, the place is gorgeous with a little snow laying about. Try a pre-dawn hike in the O.F. geyser basin - the light, color, and fog effects are awesome.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

You know that the second season is over when Mike H looks at a trough like that and thinks 'snow chase!'

Naw, lol, that is the crappy part about already wanting to go to Yellowstone and figuring may as well do it during a snow storm. I know damn well what I'll miss on the plains during the same snow storm out there. The storm could be the second season.

Thanks for the info Greg. I've been trying to get there right before Beartooth Pass closes(it would rule to be up there during a snow storm, but that seems a bit impossible....given one good snow storm now will likely be the closure for the winter for it...since that is mid-October). I hope they aren't too conservative with the rest of the park though, as that would suck, especially if I room in Gardiner, lol. Should just room in the truck.

The main thing I wanted to shoot was moon-lit gyser scenes, or the Yellowstone River, etc. That will be the hardest part given the snow storm, lol. Hopefully they at least open them fairly quickly after it snows.

 

[Paul Hadfield]

I'm hoping for at least a 10/18/07 or equivalent before the flakes start flying.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The GFS has been suggesting a potent winter storm event across the high Plains and Front Range this weekend, maybe as far south as Amarillo. As always, the GFS' cold bias is enough to take that with a grain of salt - but if temps/precip can simply come close, there will be some snow on the ground in eastern Coloroado and western OK, KS, and NE. FWIW, the GFS pegged our first frost here last Friday in the mountains, 6 days in advance.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

No clue what the JMA JP3 model is, but dang, it too has a monster out there, slower than even the slower ECMWF.

http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_500_GPHTMPVORT_144HR.gif

Sunday morning has the thing centered over sw Utah still. A fair amount of precip for northern WY before it really even moves through there.

Looks like the GEM model on Earls is between runs at 120/132hr, so I'm seeing the new run and old run for the same time frame on those. Old run shows the big splitting by 12z Saturday, but on the new run for 12z Saturday(120hr) it's not splitting it now.

Looks like most everything now is going towards the big slower western trough. C'mon 0z runs.

That JP3 thing is nuts though for northern WY. 72hr precip of over 2 inch liquid equivalent, appears it would all be snow...all before the big upper low moves in that direction.

 

[Matt Sellers]

Looks like most everything now is going towards the big slower western trough. C'mon 0z runs.

The 07/00z GFS has shifted significantly from earlier runs (which had been remarkably consistent even at 8-9 days out) and is now in better agreement with the 06/12z ECMWF run... the big slower western trough.

 

[Gerrit Gulden]

Well, my area is set for a hard freeze tonight and its definetely looking like my area will indeed get snow. The mountains look to get heavy snow and if the storm does what it shows for Models, my area could possibly see heavy snow as well. Winter headlines could be posted as soon as tommorow for areas of the Northwest such as snow advisories, etc. If you do indeed go to Yellowstone Mike, be prepared for possible road closures, etc. It will definetely be a great trip tho since cold weather really makes all the attractions there look like Yellowstone is gonna blow its top. I remember a trip this time of year last year and I swore up and down that Yellowstone was majorly active and I remember even coming home and checking the Seismic activity to see if there were swarms, only to find little to no earthquakes. You might even get to see animals that arent usually there during spring and summer like Bear and wolves.

This storm does have the potential to bring snow, snow/rain mix and freezing rain to many other areas than just the Northwest from what I saw on several models for precip type. I am kind of anxious, yet also not ready to let go of the warm temps. Hopefully there will still be a second season, but it doesnt appear likely for my area.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Well I'm in Cody WY now. Amazing country once you get to the bighorns and west. It was nice and COLD on the pass west of Buffalo. Not much snow up there, but some was laying around. It will be an interesting contrast driving back through there after this is over.

I wish I was a lot better at snow forecasting and had some experience with upslope events. I'm wondering where the hell to be once the big snows kick in. If I'm stuck out of the park(no motels open in the park other than the booked old faithful inn) I don't want to be stuck in a town that gets very little. The snow forecast maps by the NAM and GFS paint an obvious upslope induced swath, but well there are no towns there(probably for a decent reason). Cody and Gardiner are both a little low at 5,000 feet, and I'm not sure I want to be at either. They also aren't in the heavy swath forecast. I'm pondering a Cooke City MT stay since it is higher, but wonder how much will get drained out from those slopes/mountains ne of it. I guess since I have ZERO experience with this mountain snow deal, I'm wondering just how far past the peaks stuff will want to fall heavier, that or how much upslope can happen out a ways like Cody. Would the increase starting right here on west help lift back to here? I'm guessing it's rather "precise" into a small area taht gets it with this. Yeah other aspects will help the snow fly, but that's the biggy. My no-snow-forecasting brain thinks Cooke City MT is my best middle ground if I am forced or decide to go for the biggest snow instead of being in Yellowstone the whole time.

Tomorrow I know is going to be fun, flying up to Beartooth Pass early and hoping things don't get too wild up in those heights too early. I'm aware of the extent of the elevation there, just have to get there before it's closed for the year, which I'm guessing could start tomorrow night. I am actually not sure I've even been in mountains during snow ever. As a 7 or 8 year old I guess, lol.

0z NAM run looking a little "confused" like it's not sure it wants one big solid piece or to split it out, or stretch it out by the end. Some of the others I've looked at of the 500mb low just looks scary, slow and mean. Should be interesting the next few days.

New 0z Nam forecast snow: http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_84HR.gif Seems it wants to drop it all before reaching Cooke City. Hmmmm.

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Watches flying now. Check out the forecasts from Riverton....

http://kamala.cod.edu/wy/latest.fpus55.KRIW.html

Those mountain ones at the bottom are crazy.

Absorokas.

TONIGHT
SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS
16 TO 24. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
FRIDAY
SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. HIGHS 19 TO 29.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW
90 PERCENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT...BREEZY
SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 11 INCHES.
LOWS 11 TO 17. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE EVENING. CHANCE
OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.
SATURDAY...BREEZY
SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 14 INCHES.
HIGHS 17 TO 25. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR
100 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...BREEZY
SNOW. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOWS 8 TO
16. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. WIND CHILL READINGS 10 BELOW TO
20 BELOW ZERO.
SUNDAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THEN NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS 22 TO 30. CHANCE
OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.

1.5 to 3 feet for the mountains. Guess if one takes the max numbers off there it's over 3 feet.

Riverton area watches...

http://kamala.cod.edu/wy/latest.wwus45.KRIW.html

Billings calling for 2-4 feet around Red Lodge Beartooth, Crazy, and Absaroka mountains.

 

[Chad Cowan]

You see this one Mike? Hope you got your snow chains on that mustang!

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BILLINGS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND CHANGE
TO OR MIX WITH SNOW BY LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM NO ACCUMULATION TO 3 INCHES...WITH GREATEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY SNOW IS THEN POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE SNOW TAPERS OFF SUNDAY NIGHT. ONE TO
TWO FEET OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE PRYOR MOUNTAINS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT IMMINENT. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS
STORM THAT MAY PRODUCE HISTORICAL SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA
OVER A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS. THE SNOW WILL BE WET AND
HEAVY...AND DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES ARE POSSIBLE.TRAVEL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. PLEASE
MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
EVOLVES.

 

[Greg Campbell]

Mike, I'm sooo envious!

You're in some of the most beautiful country on the continent, with snow, wind, mountains, etc. all doing their thing.

Enjoy!

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

You know it's been a loooong day when you can't figure out where the motel room key goes in the door.....from the inside of the room on your way out. I was like, where the hell is it! Doh! I think the "looong" part started around noon when severe toe cramping kicked in. Nothing more enjoyable than those, where a toe or two will pull upwards like they want to break themselves. Hell they are still doing it.

This whole area is amazing. I never did see what much of Cody looked like as I came in there after dark and left there in the dark. Took Chief Joseph Scenic highway to get to Beartooth Pass. Damn. Awesome in there, and very cold. Shot the scene before sunrise with cars coming up or going down out there. That is one place not to skip if coming out here. Beartooth pass is the same, not to be skipped. It was cool seeing/shooting the snow showers over the mountains to the south of there on the way up. Just nice lighting and "stormy".

I get up to 11,000 feet or whatever it is there, and had very little time to shoot. That snow to the south could be seen getting closer, just by the darker clouds over the hill. Well, next thing I know a wall of white comes over the pass. Time to get back up and go back down into WY! I would not want to do those bazillion switchbacks down that thing with snow on them. The top was quickly covered with snow, and well, it was spooky. It would just take forever to do that in snow the whole way.

Got to Cooke City and filled up for a lovely $4.30/gallon. Flew into the park to at least find a cell/net connection for the first time since 6 am leaving Cody. Cooke City sure sucked, no radio and no cell service right in town. And there was no cell service till well in the park, or way back towards Cody. Oh yes, and the cd player wouldn't play a cd I put in, and I never could get it to eject the thing. It's stuck. So no radio, no audio. And it's pretty extensive out here.

The park ruled pretty much all over that ne road, snow flying around the mountain tops. I get up Dunraven pass and visibility takes a dump, and the road starts to get slick. I was doing really well at being at pass level at the worst times. Sucks not knowing how good or bad the rest of the drive will be. Rest wasn't bad.

The falls was pretty nice with snow coming down. Less light allows for some blurring water shots. One area down along the river was steaming right above the water. Some hot spring or something right in the wall of the cliff. Actually it wasn't far above the water. It was neat. Also if you ever go to the park, go the brink, or edge of that falls. Yikes.

Got out of there and messed around in Norris Geyser basin. Lovely SO2. Steamboat Geyser was really being a big tease, sending up big sprays. Sign said last eruption was 2005. Then said it's only clues are frequent bursts of at least 5-15 meters. They were that big and what I'd say was "frequent". Left there a bit before dark as the snow was increasing. That bit of a pass coming down towards Gardiner was getting interesting. It sort of sucks, as now I'm not so sure I'd want to drive that when it is slick. Guess we'll see come tomorrow. Not much snow here, only sticking to grass. It was sticking to the highway up at the high part of that pass coming down here however. Couple corners getting thick fog with the snow. I think that helps the switchbacks, just not being able to see what is over the side.