Emily?

[Sam Sagnella]

Well, keeping with the pace of the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season, a strong and well organized tropical wave is located in the eastern Atlantic and will be moving into an area with only 5kts of wind shear and SSTs around 27-28C. We could have a new depression on our hands soon, and possibly TS Emily near PR/USVI in about 5-6days. Thoughts?

 

[Owen Shieh]

Yeah, this is ridiculous. The pattern is that of mid/late August. In fact, the "tropical wave" is already a surface low. The same goes for the other system behind it that just came off of Africa. They are already both lows that developed in the monsoon trough dangling a bit far north for this time of year. Check out the GFS run out to 4-5 days. Looks like we may have two more systems on our hands by the end of the week. But for now, the one farther west has a better chance at developing.

EDIT: I guess it would be good to continue this in Target Area now that a topic has been created.

 

[David Draun]

Yo, I have a question on names for all you hurricane dudes out there:

What is the criteria for a storm's name to be retired? Is it the amount of damage it causes? Whether it landfalls? What?

Hit me back on that.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

David,

The only time that there is a change is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for obvious reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the committee (called primarily to discuss many other issues) the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it.

--> http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/retirednames.shtml

From what I know, it's completely subjective, though damages, deaths, etc, are used to determine retirement...

 

[David Draun]

So, I take it there will not be another Dennis?

 

[Owen Shieh]

It depends on how much damage is found that came with Dennis. So far, it seems to be less that most people had imagined. Remember cat. 4 Hurricane Bret in 1999? It went into Texas, but since population was low along that stretch of the coast, the name wasn't retired, even though it was a classic storm.

 

[Jim Tang]

It depends on how much damage is found that came with Dennis. So far, it seems to be less that most people had imagined. Remember cat. 4 Hurricane Bret in 1999? It went into Texas, but since population was low along that stretch of the coast, the name wasn't retired, even though it was a classic storm.

I think that Dennis will be retired, no doubt. Bret was different in that it didn't strike anywhere besides that rural stretch of Texas coastline. But Dennis cut a path of destruction in Haiti, Cuba, and the Florida Keys before hitting the Florida Panhandle. So, even if it is found that the FL Panhandle was undamaged by the hurricane, it would be retired.

Hey, if Klaus (1990) and Lili (2002) were retired, why wouldn't Dennis be retired?

 

[Chris Hayes]

I wont be surprised to see a Tropical Storm Emily at the 11pm update. Convection is really deepening. Doesnt seem to have a lot of good outflow yet, though.

 

[Owen Shieh]

Right, the effects of Dennis in the Caribbean slipped my mind for a moment. In that case, there's a good chance it would be retired. Only 1 other storm made such a similar track to Dennis that cut diagonally across Cuba. I believe it was the 2nd storm of 1928 or 1924. I will have to check again.