Early May Storms

[Brian Press]

Hello Fellow ST'ers,

My brothers and I are planning a trip out to the plains May 3rd thru 8th. Any thoghts on this time frame? I am quite new to forecasting and the models are driving me crazy. Any thoghts on early May. Should we stay in So. Cal and wait or do we go?

Post your thoughts here..

Thanx and I love this fourm,

Brian

 

[Mickey Ptak]

Hello Brian! Hope things are going well in the earth quack capital... I don't know about anyone else but we, here in the southern plains, are in a very bland upper air pattern for the next several days at least according to the latest GFS run. BUT my good friend it will be May and I have seen things go from crap to great in just a few days. We just can’t seem to get rid of these early April cold fronts that keeps driving our moisture down south. Personally Brian I would wait until the following week or at least until the upper air pattern changes. It just seems when we have moisture we do not have the upper air support and when we have the upper air support we don’t have the moisture.

My .02

Slick Mick

 

[David Wolfson]

The advantage of that time IMO is that the action would be south for you. My vibes are that the action will be up in the KS, NE, IA, MO, OK area by the time of our own trip later in May. Midland-Odessa, San Angelo, and Abilene are a lot easier for you to get to than Omaha.

I'm no expert, either, for sure, but it looks like the ingredients will be there for a few days of fair dryline storms. Looking at 00Z on the 4th for example at 500Mb you've got about 40kts from 250 -- decent; higher levels are over 50kts from 260 or 270 with mesoscale disturbances riding the flow -- not F5 material but not a show-stopper either; there's 20kts from about 220 at 700Mb -- fair; at 850Mb you have gulf flow that's been around awhile and moderate temps -- check; and at the surface there's a rather sweet gradient off the gulf.

It's awfully darn pretty down toward Fort Stockton and Ozona as I remember. I'd like the chance to spend a few days there with the camera even without storms. FWIW.

 

[Mike Johnson]

I've been wondering is this is goign to be a southern jet chase year.

Some of the early indications seem to point that way. It's been
sometime since there has been a southern chase year,
but this might be it.

Mike

 

[Brian Press]

Thanks Guys,

David, Yeah we are supposed to Fly in to OK City. Ozona and Fort Stockton are quite a ways down, but hey, whatever it takes. Last week all the GFS was showing central OK. Humm.. Please keep the thoughts coming.

Thanks,

b.p.

 

[David Wolfson]

Oh, you're flying into OKC, then driving.... That puts a little different "spin" on things.

I gotta say, it's very early to tell, but the GFS is going in the right direction for persistent craziness in the areas I mentioned the last two weeks in May, reminiscent of early May, 2003. If you believe it, there's a few "We're all gonna die!" days in there.

 

[David Wolfson]

... and now ladies and gents, the jet is somewhere up in northern Canada and there's a tropical system off Florida in mid-May. Permit me for being skeptical.

Give back yesterday's -- this sucks.

 

[nickgrillo]

Took a quick glance at the GFS, and I'm beggining to see a bit of potential with a system that moves into the central plains on May 6th...

Brian, BTW, I couldn't reply to your email - something is wrong with my outlook express when I try to send out mail on the road, here...

 

[Brian Press]

Thanks Guys,

I really appreciate your comments. We re planning on going our May 10th thru 15th. What is your thoughts on this time frame. Looks like a good trough setting up for that time period.

Looking forward to all your comments. I am really new to this forecasting stuff.

Thanks again St'ers.

Brian

 

[mrobinett]

Originally posted by Mickey Ptak
Personally Brian I would wait until the following week

Slick Mick

Im gonna hold you to that Mickey!!(just kidding!!)
Ill be there week after this next week!!

 

[Mickey Ptak]

Originally posted by mrobinett+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(mrobinett)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Mickey Ptak

Personally Brian I would wait until the following week

Slick Mick

Im gonna hold you to that Mickey!!(just kidding!!)
[/b]

Then you are in real trouble Mike. LOL!

 

[Mickey Ptak]

Well it looks like early/mid May could bring a cluster of good chase days to the plains starting the end of this week. Let the real chasing begin!

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/9panel/mrf_1...1000_9panel.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/9panel/mrf_5..._500_9panel.gif

I don’t want to start a Target Area thread because there are so many days lined up so I hope this is cool with the mods.

Mick