Steve Holmes
EF2
I can't tell a GFS from a HRRR like you guys can, but I've studied tornado safety. Some weird stuff I've learned:
And for anything remotely resembling a funnel. Human nature strikes again. If you're criticized, CYA by overcompensating. Up goes the FAR.
You may be right, rdale. But for now, they're entrenched. People expect to hear them. A study of the Joplin tornado said 75% of people interviewed got their first warning for sirens. The WX community can argue long and loud, "They're not meant to be heard indoors," and that's true, but people are not rational creatures. There was a story about sirens being discontinued as a way of signaling the beginning and end of the lunch hour in a small town. Enough people got upset with the change that it was reversed. Human nature.
Siren pros:
1) They are the only warning device that can be controlled locally. Not all Emergency Managers take all their cues from the NWS. In 2008, the Picher (OK) sirens went off six minutes before the NWS warning came out, based on spotting by a volunteer firefighter west of town.
2) They have other uses. They can warn for a chemical spill or flash flood, for example. Others are "fire alarms" to notify the volunteer FD to show up for an emergency. So why not use them for tornadoes, too?
Siren cons:
1) They can fail. In 2012, lightning knocked out power to sirens in Woodward, OK just before a deadly tornado moved in.
2) Siren policies differ, even between neighboring towns. What they're sounded for here, they might not be sounded for there. Confusion over what the sirens meant was reported in Tuscaloosa and in Joplin. Most places don't sound an all-clear. Some do. In Joplin, the unprecedented second sounding spurred action among some. Others took it as an all-clear. Are they activated for derechos? Some SW MO communities have coordinated their policies.
3) They desensitize people to the dangers, especially if they're sounded in tests. This ties in with the FAR issue. What's the solution? If the WX community had a consensus, we'd know it by now. Said one met, paraphrasing here, "Sirens are a good way to make it look like you're doing something about the problem when you're not." An EM called them the "hammer" in his warning toolbox. Larger cities can zone the sirens, as OKC said it would do, but you're still gonna hear them outside the warned area. Mix that problem with the FAR dilemma and the square-peg-in-a-round-hole challenge of text-warning for polygons, and you have a conversation too long for one post.
And for anything remotely resembling a funnel. Human nature strikes again. If you're criticized, CYA by overcompensating. Up goes the FAR.
You may be right, rdale. But for now, they're entrenched. People expect to hear them. A study of the Joplin tornado said 75% of people interviewed got their first warning for sirens. The WX community can argue long and loud, "They're not meant to be heard indoors," and that's true, but people are not rational creatures. There was a story about sirens being discontinued as a way of signaling the beginning and end of the lunch hour in a small town. Enough people got upset with the change that it was reversed. Human nature.
Siren pros:
1) They are the only warning device that can be controlled locally. Not all Emergency Managers take all their cues from the NWS. In 2008, the Picher (OK) sirens went off six minutes before the NWS warning came out, based on spotting by a volunteer firefighter west of town.
2) They have other uses. They can warn for a chemical spill or flash flood, for example. Others are "fire alarms" to notify the volunteer FD to show up for an emergency. So why not use them for tornadoes, too?
Siren cons:
1) They can fail. In 2012, lightning knocked out power to sirens in Woodward, OK just before a deadly tornado moved in.
2) Siren policies differ, even between neighboring towns. What they're sounded for here, they might not be sounded for there. Confusion over what the sirens meant was reported in Tuscaloosa and in Joplin. Most places don't sound an all-clear. Some do. In Joplin, the unprecedented second sounding spurred action among some. Others took it as an all-clear. Are they activated for derechos? Some SW MO communities have coordinated their policies.
3) They desensitize people to the dangers, especially if they're sounded in tests. This ties in with the FAR issue. What's the solution? If the WX community had a consensus, we'd know it by now. Said one met, paraphrasing here, "Sirens are a good way to make it look like you're doing something about the problem when you're not." An EM called them the "hammer" in his warning toolbox. Larger cities can zone the sirens, as OKC said it would do, but you're still gonna hear them outside the warned area. Mix that problem with the FAR dilemma and the square-peg-in-a-round-hole challenge of text-warning for polygons, and you have a conversation too long for one post.
