MClarkson
EF5
With the 01/12Z models in, the HWRF has now flipped to the offshore solution, leaving CMC/GFDL with tracks into the outer banks and GFS/EURO/HWRF far offshore. Still plenty of disagreement/uncertainty.
What effect does the cutoff low have on the hurricane?
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What effect does the cutoff low have on the hurricane?
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With the 01/12Z models in, the HWRF has now flipped to the offshore solution, leaving CMC/GFDL with tracks into the outer banks and GFS/EURO/HWRF far offshore. Still plenty of disagreement/uncertainty.
The thought was that the trough would "capture" the hurricane and help bring it in northwest toward the coast - envision it moving counterclockwise up and around the cutoff low - I think this is known as a fujiwara effect. But I am not sure what makes the difference between this occurring, OR the trough instead kicking the hurricane offshore as Mike suggested. I assume it has something to do with the exact timing/phasing and position/orientation of each feature when the trough and hurricane are close enough to each other to interact.
This fellow does a very good job explaining the forecast difficulties that the models have been struggling with.What effect does the cutoff low have on the hurricane?
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Nice, thanks! Makes plenty sense, and now can see why the timing really is everythingThis fellow does a very good job explaining the forecast difficulties that the models have been struggling with.
From what I can see of the spaghetti maps, there is almost no chance that the storm follows anything close to the official NHC track - it either makes landfall in the Carolinas OR goes OTS.
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