Could Joaquin be a threat to the Bahamas and the East Coast?

[Tim Paitz]

This is over 24 hours. Very dangerous flooding situation going on in Charleston! VA and NC's mountains might get a lot of rain so it'll be dangerous to be out driving. Rough surf and rip currents are also possible along much of the east coast too and there are high wind warnings in southern Delaware and southeastern new jersey.

 

[rdale]

That's not from Joaquin though... He'll stay well offshore.

 

[Mike Marz]

I am not sure why the NAM is not a reliable model for tropical systems, or maybe it is just an outlier for this particular system, but it's funny to look at how much different of a solution that it has. It has Joaquin just meandering around off the southeastern coastline for awhile, and basically eating up the southeastern US trough. This would be pretty awesome to see, but it won't happen... Does anyone know much about the models and their relationships/track records with tropical weather?

 

[rdale]

The NAM is not a global model and it was not developed to do tropical systems. It's like asking a quarterback to become a lineman. Both involve football - but their areas of expertise are too different to be of use

 

[Tim Paitz]

That's not from Joaquin though... He'll stay well offshore.

I know.