Chasing during the early season

[Dan Robinson]

(This is a break-off topic from a recent NOW thread) The 2007 spring severe weather season is waking up, and with it is the collective enthusiasm of chasers. As such, it's worth the reminder that the better times are yet to come. So, wait for May (or at least mid-April)! March and early April have a tendency to burn chasers anxious to get out after a long winter. It's like trying to have Christmas in October. Good setups can happen, but they are usually stressful fast movers. NM this week and March 12 last year are exceptions rather than the rule. Sunday in MN/WI was classic March.

We all know that good tornado days can be had any time of the year. If one pops up close by, by all means, go for it. I would! I've posted before about how with WxWorx, one can catch tornadoes any time of the year anywhere in the USA. It is true that the atmosphere doesn't care about climatology, but it can't be ignored. There's a reason we don't plan to go on extended chase trips in January - or even in March. The bust percentages are much higher.

If you're loaded with cash, go for it and chase from February to November - heck, I would if I had the money. But if you have limited chase funds, don't burn it all up now. The good stuff is almost here - don't let a couple of bad past Mays cloud your perspective.

Now, I'm prone to giving in to the temptation to chase on mod/high risk days in the early season, so I can't speak too loudly on this. I might even have to eat my words later if something shows up in IL/IN in coming weeks.

 

[Jason A.C. Brock]

There are so many different circumstances to go over as to if or when I will chase it would take forever to go over. I have seen tornado warnings near my area on January 1st. I have seen tornadoes in my area in November. It all depends on the setup and if I can get away from things such as school or work etc. If a setup shows any promise I will usuallly give it a shot (especially if it is within a half days drive or so) I HATE that feeling you get when you see tornado warnings and later even great video other chasers got when you could have gone out chasing and decided not to go. I jsut think that if your going to get the pics ya want.....ya have to be out there chasing. If you want to get the occasional surprise and have a little luck to go along with it.....you have to be out there! I know we cant be out there all the time and we cant chase every bolt that flashes accross the sky....but it pays to take the most chances ya can. Take today for example....who would have guessed the stuff around Lubbock. I could have been there if It had been more predictable. No slight risk or anything and the West Texas magic kicked in. The chasers in Lubbock lucked out and were treated to a little extra surprise. The chasers who were in WI well....sh*t HAPPENS.

 

[Jay McCoy]

I look at it this way. I dont care if its March of June. If its close enough, I can get off work, and I can afford it then I will chase it. I dont have to have the perfect setup high rsik in May for me to get excited. A slight risk within a few 100 miles in March is fine with me too. I have seen many a sloppy slight risk turn into a big day.

I think that is the kind of attitude that defines hard core chaser. If there is a chance of severe wx and I am able to go then I am going.

 

[David Drummond]

I HATE that feeling you get when you see tornado warnings and later even great video other chasers got when you could have gone out chasing and decided not to go. I jsut think that if your going to get the pics ya want.....ya have to be out there chasing.

Shane Adams once said "If you don't play, you can't win." Every time I try to talk myself out of chasing one day I think about that statement. I end up going and get something more often than not.

 

[Karen Politte]

Everybody is going to have their own set of personal parameters for a chase that must be fulfilled before they will consider going out. For most it is a combination of money, time off work, geographic location and the overall promise of the setup.

That being said - I really don't enjoy chasing February or March. April - as far as I'm concerned - is a transitional month with some very good chasing to be had if you go out and risk it. Of course - May and June are no-brainers - you'd BETTER be out chasing if it's one of those months. Of course - nowadays we are having to tack-on months here and there to what is the commonly accepted handful of chase-friendly months. July and August in the Dakotas, I believe, are gaining more and more popularity!

KL

 

[Angie Norris]

I agree with Jay... If it's close (anywhere in OK, TX Panhandle, southern end of KS) and I'm off work or out of school, I'll go for it. I'd almost rather chase the marginal events...fewer folks out, and you never know when you'll get really lucky. The time of year doesn't matter in the least...Mother Nature does tend to ignore the calendar.

 

[Dan Robinson]

If I was in the position of David and Jay, I'd definately chase every panhandle setup even if it was December. It's close, and the cost to be there for those is relatively low. Likewise, if I was in OKC I'd probably bite on everything in OK, KS and north TX. Even there, most everything is within a morning to early afternoon's drive. What I mean is those 1,500+ mile marathons to Iowa or South Dakota from Texas or Oklahoma. Or north Texas from Nebraska or Minnesota. Or 2,000+ mile round trips from West Virginia to southwest Kansas or the Texas panhandle, in my case. If go on two or three of those, that's over half of my chase budget. The temptation is strong to pull the trigger on these early season setups, but with a lower success probability and, in most cases, to the detriment of one's financial ability and/or employment flexibilty for chasing in the peak season of May and June.

 

[afischer]

Everybody is going to have their own set of personal parameters for a chase that must be fulfilled before they will consider going out. For most it is a combination of money, time off work, geographic location and the overall promise of the setup.

Just like with most other people, there are always some more "typical" spring set-ups that crop up that I watch in agony from work. That's why if I'm off and a non-typical set-up arises, I'm more apt to go for it... but like Karen says, everyone is different and has their own threshold. Sometimes I have trouble even defining my own; it depends on so many things. But personally, if I didn't give chasing a try during the "early season" as well as the "late season," I wouldn't see nearly as much. As an example, 3/8ths or 37.5% of the tornadoes I've seen did not occur in April, May, & June... which is interesting I guess, seeing as that's when I take most of my vacation time to chase.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

February 28, 2007 eastern KS. November 12, 2005 in IA is another. There are lots of exceptions out there, and seeing big supecells and tornadoes are pretty much exceptions to begin with. I don't think Sunday in MN/WI was really classic March either. Low level veering and scouring killed the day, which can happen any time of the year. The models actually showed it well too(even down to 900mb was getting bone dry on Earls graphics). A "classic" March wouldn't have ever had deep moisture in place that far north to begin with. One never needed climo to show that day had issues.

It's really a pretty simple topic. Learn how to forecast, don't let the spc probs dictate if you chase(I am still HORRIBLE at being talked into chases by this...or worse, out of chases..though more rare), and chase as much as you can afford and/or want to.

Climo is good for something, though I'm not sure what when it comes to the actual chase day. Looking at the setup and what is out there certainly trumps the climo factor. It may say something is less likely to happen, but if the setup is in place just right it can argue against it. But hey at least it gives some something to say after the day is over. "What do you expect in March!" I expect snow, not the constant near 80 temps around here and a wide open gulf.

I like to "chase em while I got em". I don't really want to wait and then find out the rest of the season wanted to suck. Waiting around and blowing off a day cost me February 28, 2007 already. I'm not happy about it and plan to chase every "stupid", un-climotologically-wise, veered out setup, I can. Naw, not really actually. I plan to bust some more on those stupid days that I have no ability to just sit out, then be annoyed and frustrated, then sit out a day that goes bonkers.

I still hate chasing! So long as someone is there to tell me how stupid it was after the fact(chasing or sitting home) I'll be satisfied. Nothing is more annoying in chasing than busting either by going or staying home, then being asked about it by ANYONE. I disown my own parents all the time. C'mon next stupid chase day.

 

[Tony Laubach]

I've chased into Tennessee in March! If I have the time and means, I'm out! I don't care! I love the weather, I love being on the road! I've said it before, sometimes I just need to forecast an excuse to road-trip as opposed to forecast for a chase. I enjoy the thrill of being out and will chase anytime I can regardless of the month. Its the way I've been for a while and see no reason to stop. Sometimes it sucks for those coming along with me who are looking for more than a roadtrip! LOL

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I right there with Tony. I'll chase anytime and it doesn't matter where to me. As long its somewhere from Canada to Mexico I'm there. My best chases have come in September, February, and March. The last tornado I saw in May was back in 2002 when I wasn't even a chaser. The other thing is fast moving storms, as long as you can stay ahead of them and know the roads and are smart about it, it's not much different then slow moving storms it just requires more driving and less getting out (as well as a bit more stress). I mean it's only the last week of March and I have 4 chases under my belt already!!!

 

[MatthewCarman]

I think if it is a local (state chase) or the risk is high or even moderate if it is close then why not chase? If you want to chase go for it. If the mod risk is to far away or just a slight risk outside of state why waste the money? Better things to spend the money unless you actually see a tornado then it is well worth it.

As for it being march you can still get some pretty good tornado outbreaks but the months of April through July would no dout have the best weather conditions and temps for severe storms in my oppinion.

 

[Mikel Shively]

I think if it is a local (state chase) or the risk is high or even moderate if it is close then why not chase? If you want to chase go for it. If the mod risk is to far away or just a slight risk outside of state why waste the money? Better things to spend the money unless you actually see a tornado then it is well worth it.

uh...just one question... how do you know your going to see a tornado before you chase? Just wanted to know...Thanks

I think if I knew there was absolutely no chance of seeing a tornado, on any particluar day, I wouldn't spend the money on it. But when I chase, that's just the chance I take.

 

[MatthewCarman]

uh...just one question... how do you know your going to see a tornado before you chase? Just wanted to know...Thanks

I cant answer that. It is inpossible to predict where a tornado will be before you chase. You can make a guess but that is it. I dont see where I said that in my post? Mabey I confused you with what I said and if so I apologize.

 

[Danny Neal]

In my situation, living in IL, I would bite on any semi-local chase before say April 1st. Before this year, daylight would always be a problem, as it would get dark at about 5-6 PM I.E March 12th last year. This year with Daylight Savings time earlier along the calender, gives that extra hour to get that good shot or view of a storm.

After spending the majority of winter under a gray, stratus deck, any EARLY chase opportunity I see I would be inclined to go after. Just to see my first updraft/hail stone/lightning bolt. After one of those has temporarily flushed my insanity away, those little question mark days of hmmm well thats good.....buuuut thats bad will just be like. Hmm yeah No.

If i get a good convective first chase, then I guess I would be more satisfied to wait until the next almost sure severe weather day. But hey when is severe weather ever 100% certain right? This year I plan on making my first trip to plains since 02(thank you school and baseball thanks alot!) Well see what happens.

Really don't post alot in forecast threads to much early in the season because my optimism for something semi-definite isn't there yet. Call it what you will. I go out to chase storms. If I see something, I see something, if not then its not like I will never see another flash of lightning again? If I lost money doing it? guess that means I will have to work some OT to get it back. No biggie.