Chase Case #8

[Matt Gingery]

Well I have had a good bite to eat at home and headed east on HWY 60. I am crossing the river near Cape Girardeau Mo. and moving into S. Illinois. Going to Hang out in Carbondale Ill. We will see what happens. May head north towards Springfield Ill. once development initiates.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

The more I look over the 12z data, the more I like the southern play. The mid-level flow is much stronger the further north you go, not too mention more meridinal. Since I would be chasing in an area I am unfamiliar with I need all the help I can get. I actually think I am going to move further south to Tupelo, MS. I feel confident Illinois and Indiana are going to light up, however I would have an arduous time trying to keep up with storms moving >40-50mph.

I realize the southern target is further away from the strongest dynamics, however storm motions will be slower, which will help me to keep up. This system is large enough I think we will have storms well into the Gulf coast states. My ETA to Tupelo, MS will be 11am.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Well I have had a good bite to eat at home and headed east on HWY 60. I am crossing the river near Cape Girardeau Mo. and moving into S. Illinois. Going to Hang out in Carbondale Ill. We will see what happens. May head north towards Springfield Ill. once development initiates.

I lived in Cape Girardeau, MO in 2004. The terrain of southern Illinois is fairly flat.

 

[Marc Austin]

Alright, I've updated the wayfaring map to reflect all changes everyone has made in their position.

Since some of you missed the 12Z outlook I posted later on, I also included it on the initial 12Z Observations so that anyone who joins us later in the game will have access to it. The purpose of including the 00Z outlook was to add a bit of confusion. SPC apparently thought this system was moving slower than it actually was, thus the updated convective outlook displays an entirely different chase map.

I'm glad some of you who normally would sit out such a scenario are attempting to chase. I'm not a huge fan of this terrain either, but it sure beats FL! And when you only have a two week window to chase in an entire year, you will chase anything, even if it only produces marginally severe weather. I assure you, there are some tornadoes on this day, and some of you will probably score. We've seen many cases from the central plains and I thought it would be nice to toss it up every now and then, without getting too far from tornado alley.

I will be posting the next update later this evening. Good luck everyone!

 

[Terrence Cook]

I'm pretty sure I recognize this one, yielded my first tornado!

 

[Marc Austin]

Time for an update!

15Z Update:

Surface Observations:
Central Mississippi Valley
Great Lakes Region
Midwest

Visible Satellite Imagery: Once again, a lack of available satellite images
Midwest
National

Radar Imagery:
Great Lakes
Central Miss. Valley
Southern Miss. Valley

I've included an intermediate 15Z update. I think this is realistic given most of you would be waiting around for the latest data. Here it is! I'll update the map later tonight if anyone makes changes in their positions.

 

[Dean Baron]

*****. I dont have much of a shot at getting in good position. Im going to head towards southern Illinois from southeast Missouri playing catchup and take anything I can get, although my hopes arent real high right now.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I am still on the road to Paducah, KY and I still think that is the best area at this point.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I don't see anything to make me shift from my La-Z-Boy couch right here at home in Caledonia, MI. Clear sky is just moving into my area, and while I'm not crazy about that large patch of broken mid-level clouds to the south, I'm hoping it'll diminish and even disappear by 18z, allowing good insolation to work its magic during the afternoon hours. If that doesn't happen, I'll probably head toward the Indiana border. I like the backing surface winds and the upper-level divergence where I'm at, but those things won't do me much good if I'm socked in with clouds. I really don't think that's going to be a concern, though. I think the clear air will work its way in and build up CAPE nicely.

 

[Patrick Martin]

I'm a bit torn at this point. The urge to move to the bottom end of the mod risk has me looking north. However, I'm going to hold out for a LLJ to set up later in the day and going to commit to the wrn TN/KY region that a few sups will go up. Now that rush hour in Memphis is over, going to jog eastward up I-40 to Jackson TN, find someplace for lunch and to mooch wi-fi.

 

[Joe Karel]

Assuming I made it to my initial destination which was Springfield Illinois, I think I'm just gonna sit tight there and feel it out. Plus, if I really was chasing I wouldn't want to go too far west and have a long drive back to ol' minnesota, too much on a college budget. If something pops up near though..I probably would chase it for as long as it goes strong.

 

[David Wolfson]

I'm going to head east to Anderson, IN, for lunch at about 16Z. The vis satellite seems to show a wind-shift line bowing into IN west of me, and I have a hunch that I'm more likely to be taking I-69 north-northeast than I-65 north-northwest. It'll be a long lunch since my data connection is down until 18Z .

 

[Darren Addy]

I'm going to take the 2-1/2 hr drive from Indianapolis to Vincennes, IN. near the IL border. Good dewpoints and backed winds in the triangle from Evansville to Terra Haute to Indianapolis. I'm edging SW to hopefully get the earlier, pre-sundown show. I'll be keeping an eye on satellite and sky for indications of a pre-initiation cumulous field.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Still in route from Jackson, TN to Tupelo, MS. I am looking over the 15z update as I head south, and I am not liking the convection developing in the warm air advection. Right now I am thinking about getting on the back edge of the convection in eastern Mississippi, however I might wait until 18z before making any drastic decisions. With ongoing storms developing (not sure if they are elevated or surface based) I think it could be somewhat of an early show today.

The morning sounding from Jackson, MS showed little to no capping, so storms should get cranking by early to mid afternoon. I am concerned about too much convection. Fortunately I like how the mid-level winds are nearly perpindicular to the front, which should keep development to more of a cellular mode instead of a linear mode. I hope I made the right decision going this far south.

 

[John Farley]

My initial reaction was to watch things from home in Edwardsville, IL. After seeing the 12Z convective outlook and the 15Z data, I am moving northeast a bit. Toughest decision is whether to take I-55 or I-70. I decided on 70, to Vandalia, IL where I have good north-south options if I need them, and where I have less risk of getting caught too far west and playing catchup. I am liking the large area of clear sky over MO; there should be good heating. I am not liking the slight veering of surface winds in STL; this was already a pretty unidirectional setup except at the lowest levels, and now there is less directional shear even there. Probably enough for some supercells, though, given the speed shear and still at least a little directional shear.