Matt Gingery
0Z DATA
-DATA IS FOR 0Z OR THE EVENING BEFORE CHASE DAY
-ADDITIONAL REQUESTS FOR DATA ARE ALLOWED ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FULL 12Z UPDATE WITH SATELLITE, RADAR, AND SFC SYNOPTIC.
- THIS ISN'T A HUGE OUTBREAK DAY, BUT A MODEST EVENT. SEVERAL CHASERS I KNOW OF CHASED THIS EVENT. GOOD LUCK!
- I UNDERSTAND THAT MANY CHASERS USE MUCH MORE DATA DURING AN EVENT. PLEASE MAKE REQUESTS FOR DATA AND I WILL RESEARCH AND TRY TO ACCOMODATE YOUR NEEDS.
UPPER AIR CHARTS
300MB: http://i49.tinypic.com/2ywhche.gif
500MB: http://i48.tinypic.com/xmiflx.gif
700MB: http://i46.tinypic.com/numw9.gif
850MB: http://i47.tinypic.com/dory8o.gif
WIND PROFILER: http://i49.tinypic.com/1zv2yd0.gif
SOUNDINGS
AMARILLO: http://i45.tinypic.com/23wjz8j.gif
DALLAS: http://i49.tinypic.com/311qsdj.gif
DODGE CITY: http://i46.tinypic.com/169gi8z.gif
NORTH PLATTE: http://i49.tinypic.com/2lboy0l.gif
OKLAHOMA CITY: http://i45.tinypic.com/debsxs.gif
OMAHA: http://i50.tinypic.com/1yyjc.gif
RAPID CITY: http://i45.tinypic.com/33y1g6f.gif
SPRINGFIELD, MO: http://i45.tinypic.com/153vime.gif
TOPEKA: http://i46.tinypic.com/2ew2i34.gif
SURFACE PLOTS
MIDWEST: http://i47.tinypic.com/14muvk7.gif
S PLAINS: http://i48.tinypic.com/hresuq.gif
UPPER MIDWEST: http://i47.tinypic.com/2useam9.gif
0Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DAY 1
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
SERN SD SWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL KS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF WRN U.S. TROUGH IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY
ONE PERIOD AS MAIN UPPER LOW OVER WRN MT/ID SHIFTS ENEWD INTO THE
WRN DAKOTAS. PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THIS BROADER SCALE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OR SPEED MAX OVER UT AS OF
0Z. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO EJECTING NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY BY MORNING.
IN THE LOW-LEVELS...NRN MOST SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL SD IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP NEWD ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE
N INTO WRN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AT
INTERSECTION OF COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE OVER NWRN KS WILL SHIFT
GENERALLY SWD INTO THE OK/TX PNHDLS BY LATE TONIGHT.
...DAKOTAS AND NEB...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GOES SOUNDER DATA AND GPS
PW PLOTS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING NWD THROUGH
THE PLAINS...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ADVECTION
PROCESS IS MAINTAINED BY 30-40 KT SLY LLJ. THE STEEPEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES /ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/ ARE FORECAST TO
RESIDE ALONG AND S OF MID-LEVEL JET...GENERALLY FROM CNTRL NEB SWD.
THESE STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER INSTABILITY
/MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J PER KG/ BUT ALSO STRONGER CAPPING. BOTH A
WEAKER CAP AND INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J PER KG/ WILL
EXTEND NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN SD BY AFTERNOON.
TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS...DRIVEN
LARGELY BY WAA ALONG LLJ AXIS. MORE VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT OVER S-CNTRL SD
WHERE SOME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WILL ALLOW AIR
MASS TO DESTABILIZE. TSTMS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP SWD/SWWD ALONG COLD
FRONT INTO WRN/CNTRL NEB THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LARGELY PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL WINDS TO SURFACE
FRONT INDICATE A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION TO A CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS
SD INTO NRN NEB. FARTHER S INTO CNTRL/SRN NEB...A STRONGER CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL WIND COMPONENT
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE OF A BROKEN LINE OR DISCRETE
STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SUPERCELLS GIVEN 35-40 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL/SRN NEB.
OVER ND...ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
MORE INTENSE STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF FRONT.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.
...KS INTO THE ERN OK/TX PNHDLS AND WRN OK...
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A WELL DEFINED EML WILL EFFECTIVELY
CAP AIR MASS THROUGH MUCH OF DAY E OF DRYLINE. AS MENTIONED IN THE
ABOVE SECTION...DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL/SRN
NEB...EVENTUALLY INTO NWRN AND N-CNTRL KS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR S THE INITIATION AND SUSTENANCE OF
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND 21Z
ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL THE PRIMARY
LOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION WITH THE DRYLINE REMAINING LARGELY
CAPPED. AS SUCH...PROBABILISTIC AND CATEGORICAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS.
DESPITE SOME RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...OVERALL
HODOGRAPH SHAPE OVER WRN/CNTRL KS APPEARS TO BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL /SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/...HIGH WINDS
AND TORNADOES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR SWRN-MOST OR
ANCHOR STORMS ALONG COLD FRONT AND IF ANY STORMS CAN BECOME
ESTABLISHED ALONG DRYLINE.
OVER THE OK/TX PNHDLS INTO WRN OK...STORM INITIATION APPEARS MUCH
LESS PROBABLE. SHOULD AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP...ENVIRONMENT WOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO.
...ERN TX...
A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL EXIST TODAY IN WAKE OF
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX. POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR AN MCV TO DEVELOP FROM MCS ONGOING NOW OVER THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...WITH THIS FEATURE FOCUSING DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON /SIMILAR TO MONDAY/. GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY ROTATING STORMS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS.
I am enjoying these since i wasnt able to participate in the past offseasons.
