Scott Weberpal
EF5
Here it is, the long-awaited chase case #4. It is up to you to determine whether or not there will actually be chaseable storms (there will be storms somewhere), their severity, storm mode, whether or not you believe there will be tornadoes or if it's a non-tornado event. Large hail? Straight line winds?
Name your target and discuss why you picked that target and what mode of severe weather you believe will take place. 12z maps are included with this post. I will post 18-20z data in the next 20-24 hours (Wednesday evening), and 00z data/results the following evening.
I have added the SPC Day 1 Outlook as any chaser would likely have access to it if they have access to data.
12z UPPER AIR MAPS
300 mb
500 mb
700 mb
850 mb
12z SURFACE MAPS
Central High Plains
Central Plains and Ozark Region
Upper Midwest
CONUS Surface with Fronts
Dewpoint Contours
12z SOUNDINGS
Dodge City
Denver
Davenport
North Platte
Little Rock
Minneapolis
Omaha
Springfield
Topeka
SATELLITE & RADAR
Satellite
Radar
SPC 13z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
ONGOING ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SWRN ID AHEAD OF THE
VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH REFLECTS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY
INTO SWRN ID...EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSIFY FURTHER
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING EWD ACROSS SRN ID INTO SWRN MT/WRN WY. WITH
MUCAPES CLIMBING TO 1500 J/KG AND 50 KT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SUPERCELLS LIKELY WHICH WILL ENHANCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
VICINITY SNAKE RIVER VALLEY.
...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
THE STRONG DIGGING TROUGH NRN MN VALLEY WILL PROVIDE VIGOROUS
UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THE RATHER DEEP SURFACE LOW WHICH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD FROM NRN MN INTO WI. INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE INITIALLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ENCOUNTERING INCREASINGLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF OH VALLEY.
12Z ETA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAS A STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNAL AS
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI INTO SWRN MI AND NRN IN. GIVEN THE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS 80-90 KT NWLY WIND MAX DROPS SEWD
ACROSS IA INTO WRN OH VALLEY...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE WELL AFTER
DARK EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY GIVEN THE VIGOROUS UPPER SUPPORT AND
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE LOW.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES SWD THRU NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY SYSTEM. RESULT WILL BE INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO ERN
WY/NERN CO DURING AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS INTO LOW 50S PUSHING WWD
TO E SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS.
STRONG HEATING WILL INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY HIGHER TERRAIN
ERN WY/NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE CAPES TO 1500
J/KG...AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY.
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AS STORMS DEVELOP E/SEWD INTO
HIGH PLAINS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVERNIGHT MCS INTO WRN KS WITH
SEVERE THREAT DECREASING A FEW HOURS AFTER SS.
Name your target and discuss why you picked that target and what mode of severe weather you believe will take place. 12z maps are included with this post. I will post 18-20z data in the next 20-24 hours (Wednesday evening), and 00z data/results the following evening.
I have added the SPC Day 1 Outlook as any chaser would likely have access to it if they have access to data.
12z UPPER AIR MAPS
300 mb
500 mb
700 mb
850 mb
12z SURFACE MAPS
Central High Plains
Central Plains and Ozark Region
Upper Midwest
CONUS Surface with Fronts
Dewpoint Contours
12z SOUNDINGS
Dodge City
Denver
Davenport
North Platte
Little Rock
Minneapolis
Omaha
Springfield
Topeka
SATELLITE & RADAR
Satellite
Radar
SPC 13z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
ONGOING ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SWRN ID AHEAD OF THE
VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH REFLECTS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY
INTO SWRN ID...EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSIFY FURTHER
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING EWD ACROSS SRN ID INTO SWRN MT/WRN WY. WITH
MUCAPES CLIMBING TO 1500 J/KG AND 50 KT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SUPERCELLS LIKELY WHICH WILL ENHANCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
VICINITY SNAKE RIVER VALLEY.
...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
THE STRONG DIGGING TROUGH NRN MN VALLEY WILL PROVIDE VIGOROUS
UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THE RATHER DEEP SURFACE LOW WHICH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD FROM NRN MN INTO WI. INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE INITIALLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ENCOUNTERING INCREASINGLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF OH VALLEY.
12Z ETA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAS A STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNAL AS
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI INTO SWRN MI AND NRN IN. GIVEN THE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS 80-90 KT NWLY WIND MAX DROPS SEWD
ACROSS IA INTO WRN OH VALLEY...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE WELL AFTER
DARK EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY GIVEN THE VIGOROUS UPPER SUPPORT AND
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE LOW.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES SWD THRU NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY SYSTEM. RESULT WILL BE INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO ERN
WY/NERN CO DURING AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS INTO LOW 50S PUSHING WWD
TO E SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS.
STRONG HEATING WILL INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY HIGHER TERRAIN
ERN WY/NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE CAPES TO 1500
J/KG...AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY.
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AS STORMS DEVELOP E/SEWD INTO
HIGH PLAINS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVERNIGHT MCS INTO WRN KS WITH
SEVERE THREAT DECREASING A FEW HOURS AFTER SS.
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